Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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Deal Addict
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Dec 10, 2008
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Ceryx wrote: it took about 5 years to blow the bubble and will take quite some time to deflate it.

I think we only start to see decrease of sales volume this year and price deduction later next year.
Why would there be a reduction in prices?
Let's hug it out
Deal Addict
Nov 20, 2003
1238 posts
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Aurora, ON
RCGA wrote: Why would there be a reduction in prices?
because prices are too high. there's enough margin to sell at lower prices and still make a profit. so if nothing sells builders will keep lowering the prices until the inventory starts moving. if the builders lower prices then resale will have to lower too (even more) otherwise they won't sell. there are always people who need to sell, the entire market can't just wait for incomes to catch up.
Sr. Member
Jan 30, 2006
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LarryLat wrote: because prices are too high. there's enough margin to sell at lower prices and still make a profit. so if nothing sells builders will keep lowering the prices until the inventory starts moving. if the builders lower prices then resale will have to lower too (even more) otherwise they won't sell. there are always people who need to sell, the entire market can't just wait for incomes to catch up.
don't answer him
he is trolling
don't you see?
let him answer to his own questions
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Dec 10, 2008
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LarryLat wrote: because prices are too high. there's enough margin to sell at lower prices and still make a profit. so if nothing sells builders will keep lowering the prices until the inventory starts moving. if the builders lower prices then resale will have to lower too (even more) otherwise they won't sell. there are always people who need to sell, the entire market can't just wait for incomes to catch up.
Sources? Or did you just make all that up?

And new homes aren't the only homes on the market.
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Apr 2, 2007
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"Changes coming fast atop shrinking CMHC"

From the annual report - "This year, we said farewell to Dino Chiesa, Chairperson of the Board of Directors since 2004 and a Board member since 2001."

"The Board also wishes to recognize the strong management team without which it could not fulfill its responsibilities. This team, headed by Karen Kinsley, President and Chief Executive Officer for the past ten years, has provided solid leadership and professional advice to the Board. With her appointment as President ending in June 2013, we thank her for her dedicated service."

And the results will be even more visible - very soon....

Total insured volume (units):
2008 - 798,309
2009 - 1,048,736
2010 - 643,991
2011 - 630,957
2012 (planned) - 550,335
2012 (actual) - 386,222
2013 (planned) - 355,597

If you have purchased a new property and have not sold the previous one for various reasons make sure to price it aggressively and sell ASAP or when the music stops you will be surprised of how little chairs will be out there...
My work here is done - [IMG]http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Au7PTwsCIAAu7G_.jpg[/IMG]
SOFT Landing - [IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/14ilmqt.jpg[/IMG]
Bonus parade Can banks - here - with "No banker left behind"
Les États-Désunis du Canada - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpDRg7TLY8c
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Apr 2, 2007
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Originally Posted by LarryLat
because prices are too high. there's enough margin to sell at lower prices and still make a profit. so if nothing sells builders will keep lowering the prices until the inventory starts moving. if the builders lower prices then resale will have to lower too (even more) otherwise they won't sell. there are always people who need to sell, the entire market can't just wait for incomes to catch up.
RCGA wrote: Sources? Or did you just make all that up?

And new homes aren't the only homes on the market.
One great example is visible here in this post - home-reno-road-20-increase-value-1309601/

If someone is to spend $20k and expect to make $75k after all is said and done do you think that when the going gets tough he will scale back the expectations and will be content to make 50k then 40k then 30k and there is going to be a time that he will be glad to be just out without any profit but just do get rid of the expenses.
This is the problem when the amateurs and latecomers chase down the market.
My work here is done - [IMG]http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Au7PTwsCIAAu7G_.jpg[/IMG]
SOFT Landing - [IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/14ilmqt.jpg[/IMG]
Bonus parade Can banks - here - with "No banker left behind"
Les États-Désunis du Canada - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpDRg7TLY8c
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Dec 10, 2008
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bcbgboy13 wrote: One great example is visible here in this post - home-reno-road-20-increase-value-1309601/

If someone is to spend $20k and expect to make $75k after all is said and done do you think that when the going gets tough he will scale back the expectations and will be content to make 50k then 40k then 30k and there is going to be a time that he will be glad to be just out without any profit but just do get rid of the expenses.
This is the problem when the amateurs and latecomers chase down the market.
It's obvious you didn't even read my thread. The house was an estate sale, sold well below market value. It was not listed on MLS and was a private sale.

A little more reading comprehension next time
Let's hug it out
Member
Nov 22, 2009
433 posts
46 upvotes
Markham Ontario
I will be buying our first home in 6-8 months. A 20% correction would be awesome! :cheesygri
Deal Addict
Nov 20, 2003
1238 posts
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Aurora, ON
bwield wrote: I will be buying our first home in 6-8 months. A 20% correction would be awesome! :cheesygri
unlikely in six months for a good house in Markham that is correctly priced today. It takes longer than a few months for RE prices to change by more than 10% in either direction.

Markham house can be 8% cheaper in November, and then in another couple of years you'll probably see it 20%-30% cheaper overall. But since you can't wait then why do you care whether it will be cheaper or not?
Member
Nov 22, 2009
433 posts
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Markham Ontario
LarryLat wrote: unlikely in six months for a good house in Markham that is correctly priced today. It takes longer than a few months for RE prices to change by more than 10% in either direction.

Markham house can be 8% cheaper in November, and then in another couple of years you'll probably see it 20%-30% cheaper overall. But since you can't wait then why do you care whether it will be cheaper or not?
There is no way we will be buying in Markham. And I was being facetious. I would be happy if I do not see an increase in the next 6-8 months. We like most young people will be heading north for our first home.
I doubt we will see even 8% by this fall. That would be quite a drop.
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Nov 20, 2003
1238 posts
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Aurora, ON
bwield wrote: I doubt we will see even 8% by this fall. That would be quite a drop.
happened last year, why can't it happen this year? GTA average price decreased from April 2012 to August 2012 by 7.8%, and then took until March of this year to recover the loss.
Deal Addict
Mar 10, 2010
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LarryLat wrote: happened last year, why can't it happen this year? GTA average price decreased from April 2012 to August 2012 by 7.8%, and then took until March of this year to recover the loss.
So prices dropped from April 2012 to August, then recovered by March 2013? Wow, things sure are terrible 5-6 years after these threads has started.
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Feb 15, 2008
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Calgary
RCGA wrote: It's obvious you didn't even read my thread. The house was an estate sale, sold well below market value.
Impossible. Any sale, by definition, even if it is an 'estate sale', is at 'market value'. The pictures you pasted in the thread represent some pretty good evidence that it should have sold at a hefty discount to more modern/well-maintained houses as it obviously needed a substantial amount of rehabilitation.
It was not listed on MLS and was a private sale.
So? Just because something isn't on the MLS doesn't mean that its not part of the overall 'market'. Unless you committed some sort of breach of trust by selling the house to yourself as a fiduciary or advisor of the estate, you cannot really say that it was "below market", or any nonsense like that.

So which is it? Are you crooked, or are you fibbing about acquiring the place at 'below market'??
A little more reading comprehension next time
Seems pretty rich coming from you...
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
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Calgary
LarryLat wrote: because prices are too high. there's enough margin to sell at lower prices and still make a profit. so if nothing sells builders will keep lowering the prices until the inventory starts moving. if the builders lower prices then resale will have to lower too (even more) otherwise they won't sell. there are always people who need to sell, the entire market can't just wait for incomes to catch up.
Yup, and even prices on the inputs to housing will come down significantly as demand falters. Overtime will disappear. $35/hour drywallers will, after some time on EI, accept $20/hour. And so on and so forth. Rising interest rates will force more land out of the hands of hoarders due to opportunity costs.

Activity in the sector probably will even end up accelerating due to lower prices.

If anyone wants an example of this, just look at the gold mining sector. The worldwide gold mining industry basically doubled its production between 1980 and 2000, despite prices falling by 50% from the 1980 peak (even without adjusting for inflation). The people who say "developers will simply stop developing if they can't earn good profit" simply don't know what they're talking about.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...

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