Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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  • Jul 19th, 2019 8:45 pm
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Jr. Member
Dec 21, 2006
109 posts
3 upvotes
Woodbridge
If this is going way off topic, then I'll be happy to take this discussion to another thread, however the actions of the central banks have a direct impact on real estate.
Mark77 wrote:
May 28th, 2013 5:31 pm
I disagree. QE stops, bond yields spike, people seek refuge in gold and certain other hard assets that are not propped up with credit. RE prices collapse, eventually the owners of things like gold take over. At some point, even if QE isn't removed, the market will develop a revulsion to it.
Markets are only going up at the current velocity due to world wide central bank intervention. It's also no secret that central banks have been buying equities, which is unprecedented. This leads me to believe they're taking desperate actions to prop the markets up. Pull their prop away, and that leaves a huge void. We will quickly see DOW hit 10,000. Central banks can't have this happen.

I know you guys already know this, the fed's goals are to keep inflation at bay and decrease the unemployment rate to 6.5%. Their version of inflation is still within their acceptable levels, and unemployment is still an issue. So there's still a strong probability that QE will continue.

A related problem is there's no 'major' buyers for US debt, other then the feds. If they stop buying US debt, I'm pretty sure there's very few willing buyers who are willing to take the current debt risk for the low yield. The market will demand a higher yield, which the US won't be able to afford. So, again, the Feds can't allow this. QE will continue for the foreseeable future.
Mark77 wrote:
May 29th, 2013 12:09 am
Ah, basically the drug addict analogy, where the addict gets to the point where they end up needing to consume so many drugs that such quantities are not even possible to obtain. Save, going into withdrawal.
I believe it's difficult to argue the current 2013 rally is not being caused by the QE programs. The market will correct or even reverse when/if the stimulus decreases/stops. This is why it's appropriate to use the drug addict analogy.

Going into Withdrawl? Yes eventually, just not this year.
Banned
User avatar
Mar 31, 2010
1948 posts
439 upvotes
http://www.yattermatters.com

Vancouver Real Estate Average Prices:
Detached Attached Apartment

May 13 – $1,169,149 May 13 – $574,881 May 13 – $448,768
May 12 – $1,073,311 May 12 – $551,083 May 12 – $461,410
May 11 – $1,223,421 May 11 – $555,057 May 11 – $465,422

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Detached Attached Apartment
May 13 – 7,815 + 3% May 13 – 2,624 – 1% May 13 – 6,783 – 10%
May 12 – 7,577.........May 12 – 2,653.........May 12 – 7,605
Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

Detached Attached Apartment
May 13 – 1,220 + 3% May 13 – 534 + 3% May 13 – 1,136 – 1%
May 12 – 1,184.........May 12 – 517.........May 12 – 1,156

I think that Carney's replacement has a tough job ahead.
Although the numbers do not indicate a crash I don;t see terrible appreciation so at least for investors this is not a good sign. This was supposed to be the best month of the year
These are average prices and unless we do not see the composition of the melting pot we can't say much.
It might be just a regular distribution of sales like in the years before but the increase could be as well due to a higher end properties being discounted.


Anyway these are unadjusted numbers so the reality might be that the prices are flat and so might be the sales.
Let's see the VREB official numbers
RE Market melting down: YtoD GTA $volumes -4%, YtoD Toronto $volumes -7%. Read more here. Admins please read this before you consider further requests to ban me. If you are on this list do not expect replies.
Deal Addict
Jul 22, 2008
3854 posts
373 upvotes
In over a year the price has gone down by about $60K on $1.2M+.... hmm, seems like a crash is still far away ;)
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User avatar
Mar 31, 2010
1948 posts
439 upvotes
Terrific_Deals2k8 wrote:
Jun 3rd, 2013 2:09 am
In over a year the price has gone down by about $60K on $1.2M+.... hmm, seems like a crash is still far away ;)
So what do you call an average investment of 1 mil$ that made you lose 5% in 2 years, inflation not counted ??
RE Market melting down: YtoD GTA $volumes -4%, YtoD Toronto $volumes -7%. Read more here. Admins please read this before you consider further requests to ban me. If you are on this list do not expect replies.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 10, 2008
4193 posts
699 upvotes
Toronto
PF4RedFlag wrote:
Jun 3rd, 2013 6:27 am
So what do you call an average investment of 1 mil$ that made you lose 5% in 2 years, inflation not counted ??
The TSX is crashing and burning! Gold stocks are crashing and burning! Rock stocks are crashing and burning!
Member
Feb 8, 2010
326 posts
35 upvotes
Toronto
The condo above mine (top floor unit) with the exact same layout just sold for $12K less than what I sold mine for in Dec (Sale finalized in March) She originally had it listed for $10K more than mine. This is a 1br unit, about 27 years old, in Richmond BC. Seems like the condo market is down about 15-20% off its highs, but that's just my personal opinion.
Deal Addict
Mar 10, 2010
1766 posts
457 upvotes
PF4RedFlag wrote:
Jun 1st, 2013 10:33 pm
http://www.yattermatters.com

Vancouver Real Estate Average Prices:
Detached Attached Apartment

May 13 – $1,169,149 May 13 – $574,881 May 13 – $448,768
May 12 – $1,073,311 May 12 – $551,083 May 12 – $461,410
May 11 – $1,223,421 May 11 – $555,057 May 11 – $465,422

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Detached Attached Apartment
May 13 – 7,815 + 3% May 13 – 2,624 – 1% May 13 – 6,783 – 10%
May 12 – 7,577.........May 12 – 2,653.........May 12 – 7,605
Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

Detached Attached Apartment
May 13 – 1,220 + 3% May 13 – 534 + 3% May 13 – 1,136 – 1%
May 12 – 1,184.........May 12 – 517.........May 12 – 1,156

I think that Carney's replacement has a tough job ahead.
Although the numbers do not indicate a crash I don;t see terrible appreciation so at least for investors this is not a good sign. This was supposed to be the best month of the year
These are average prices and unless we do not see the composition of the melting pot we can't say much.
It might be just a regular distribution of sales like in the years before but the increase could be as well due to a higher end properties being discounted.


Anyway these are unadjusted numbers so the reality might be that the prices are flat and so might be the sales.
Let's see the VREB official numbers
Wow, so we've gone from an expected 50%+ crash, to "well I don't see terrible appreciation"...things sure are terrible 5 years after these threads were started.
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User avatar
Mar 31, 2010
1948 posts
439 upvotes
Vitalogy80 wrote:
Jun 3rd, 2013 6:51 pm
Wow, so we've gone from an expected 50%+ crash, to "well I don't see terrible appreciation"...things sure are terrible 5 years after these threads were started.
Well I recommend you to go to Vancouver and walk the streets with a banner like this:

Vancouver investors,
Hold your prices, the people at RF Deals will be wrong for the next 10 years if you do not sell !
This will bring you at least -9% profit every two years !

RE Market melting down: YtoD GTA $volumes -4%, YtoD Toronto $volumes -7%. Read more here. Admins please read this before you consider further requests to ban me. If you are on this list do not expect replies.
Deal Addict
May 30, 2012
3479 posts
772 upvotes
Montreal
pf4redflag wrote:
Jun 3rd, 2013 7:53 pm
well i recommend you to go to vancouver and walk the streets with a banner like this:

vancouver investors,
hold your prices, the people at rf deals will be wrong for the next 10 years if you do not sell !
This will bring you at least -9% profit every two years !

wtf?
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 3, 2002
1316 posts
61 upvotes
Ottawa
iownyou wrote:
Jun 3rd, 2013 8:11 pm
wtf?
Don't worry about him - he stopped making sense a few hundred posts ago.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Feb 19, 2010
5907 posts
2623 upvotes
I see that crashadam has posted the latest numbers in the first post of this thread and with nary a bleat about them. Hmm. :rolleyes:
Banned
User avatar
Mar 31, 2010
1948 posts
439 upvotes
You know what is funny ?
It is funny to calculate average prices with sales like this

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... condo.html

and to pretend that everything is OK when even with a $25M sale like above the condo sales are down "just" 20K
RE Market melting down: YtoD GTA $volumes -4%, YtoD Toronto $volumes -7%. Read more here. Admins please read this before you consider further requests to ban me. If you are on this list do not expect replies.
Newbie
Aug 18, 2012
58 posts
11 upvotes
Toronto
gilboman wrote:
Jun 4th, 2013 12:24 am
Lol..such a funny thread..op should delete it.
Why delete when it is so much fun to read stats like this:
"Deep discount for former rental unit in Yaletown" - G&M article and you may have to open a private browser session to be able to read it:

Summary:
1008 BEACH AVE., UNIT 505, VANCOUVER
LIST PRICE $489,000
SALE PRICE $480,000
PREVIOUS SALE PRICE $378,000 (2005)
TAXES $1,984 (2012)
DAYS ON MARKET 46
It’s a buyer’s market, with waterfront condos like this one selling far below the prices of comparable units in recent years. The unit was originally listed at $525,000, but being a long-term rental, the price didn’t reflect the renovation it needed.
..........
A slightly smaller unit on the [same] fifth floor sold in April for $533,500 after 40 days on the market. That unit had been completely renovated. A year ago, a unit of similar size on the sixth floor sold for $559,000 after 36 days on the market.
Funny indeed....

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