Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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Deal Fanatic
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Jan 14, 2009
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arnycus wrote: It was originally many centuries ago. Not anymore. 1% of the richest populus in most "market" economies control how it looks and feels, and whose priorities it serves. That's why Government is elected in democratic societies - to enforce laws, and balance interests of the richest 1% with needs of the majority.

Btw, looking at your definition of "out of town" buyers "approximating Canadian market", you seems to include Shenzhen and Shanghai as Vancouver larger suburbs. Smiling Face With Open Mouth
Disagree. We live better now than ever by any objective measure. Everyone I know in Vancouver lives better now than they did 30 years ago, 20 years ago, 10 years ago, 5 years ago and I expect this trend to continue for the most part.

I'm a free trade advocate so I support free movement of people and capital. Diversity is our...STRENGTH and our government voted by the democratic people agrees Smiling Face With Sunglasses!

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Why wouldn't we make that a strength if our diversity and multiculturalism is a strength, but it's winnowing away as we're getting older? Why wouldn't we do the opposite and goose it
They might not be Canadians now...but they will become Canadians Smiling Face With Sunglasses.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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Mar 30, 2017
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I agree, SFH zoning while allowing secondary and lane way house is contradicting itself and is a bad patching solution. It is far better to just rezone it to townhouse or proper duplex for that matter and allow subdivision to smaller true SFH lot for those who desire true SFH.
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seatiger wrote: I agree, SFH zoning while allowing secondary and lane way house is contradicting itself and is a bad patching solution. It is far more better to just rezone it to townhouse or proper duplex for that matter and allow subdivision to smaller true SFH lot.
I'm all for that but before it happens the market will find a way....to satisfy demand.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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zakarydoks wrote: Tokyo is a giant sprawl, city as far as the eye can see...In the end, the market will dictate what is to be built by responding to demand and that will determine what housing looks like. The government, as always, will get in the way, trip over itself repeatedly and make things worse :facepalm: .
And it's also a very livable sprawl of 37 million people disproving the rhetoric that density must only be put into point towers... which favors developers over individual citizens.

You can buy a new SFH in central Tokyo without becoming a mini fiefdom for 400k.
I'd love to write history... in advance.
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atomiton wrote: And it's also a very livable sprawl of 37 million people disproving the rhetoric that density must only be put into point towers... which favors developers over individual citizens.

You can buy a new SFH in central Tokyo without becoming a mini fiefdom for 400k.
I never advocated for towers only but that is what the market is supplying according to demand and costs. It makes sense for business people to build as many units as they can on a multi million dollar parcel of land. Businesses exist to make profits so they can pay back loans and shareholders. I never speak for other individual citizens but I'm perfectly OK with living in a tower and prefer it to a townhouse type. Living in a tower, detached, or other is an individual choice and preference and it appears the people of Vancouver are happy with the mix provided. We might not be happy with the prices but you can always move 45 mins away from downtown. Vancouver does not need to be as sprawly and dense as Tokyo yet. Still lots of land for big homes in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Surrey, Langly etc. We are seeing stabilizing prices of detached homes so that is a good sign.

Vancouver will never be Tokyo because the two markets are fundamentally very different. Do you have an example of a 400K unit in central Tokyo? TBH, I much prefer Vancouver to Tokyo. I visited Tokyo and it is a great city and I'm sure lots of people prefer it to Vancouver. That is why we can choose where to live. According to some, too many people are choosing Vancouver.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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Jul 23, 2017
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I'm not sure but I heard some people refinancing to pay downpayment of another property. When something goes wrong, these ppl will crash first.
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Motoss wrote: Vancouver Homeowner Refinancing Surges 27% Year Over Year

http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver- ... year-year/
The growth of household debt is concerning. The good thing is we are already tightening rules for Canadian borrowing. It also appears that the government is willing to do anything to protect jobs. They've lowered interest rates, allowed foreign investments and immigration. For sure, we could make it even harder to borrow money but be aware that we do not choke off jobs and growth. We need growth or else we end up like Japan :facepalm: . I'm not worried though because this is one area where the government's performance is satisfactory Smiling Face With Sunglasses.

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So although debt is a concern. The government has many tools at its disposal for mitigation and make Canada competitive Smiling Face With Sunglasses.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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Vancouver's rising number of young adults sharply eclipses national average over five-year period

It's become a truism in the media that young people are fleeing Vancouver.

That's because many of us know Vancouver-born and -raised people under the age of 40 who've left the city because of sky-high housing prices. And this shapes our perceptions that Vancouver is becoming a city of aging empty nesters.

In fact, the growth of the 25-to-39 population in Vancouver from 2011 to 2016 was more than 10 percent higher than the national rate, according to research by Vancouver data analyst Jens von Bergmann.

"Among the larger Census Metropolitan Areas in Canada, Toronto and Vancouver displayed the most surprising increase in the share of young adults, closely followed by Edmonton," von Bergmann writes on his website. "Montreal registered a frighteningly surprising decrease in young adults, followed Québec city, Ottawa and Calgary.
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seatiger wrote: Vancouver's rising number of young adults sharply eclipses national average over five-year period

It's become a truism in the media that young people are fleeing Vancouver.

That's because many of us know Vancouver-born and -raised people under the age of 40 who've left the city because of sky-high housing prices. And this shapes our perceptions that Vancouver is becoming a city of aging empty nesters.

In fact, the growth of the 25-to-39 population in Vancouver from 2011 to 2016 was more than 10 percent higher than the national rate, according to research by Vancouver data analyst Jens von Bergmann.

"Among the larger Census Metropolitan Areas in Canada, Toronto and Vancouver displayed the most surprising increase in the share of young adults, closely followed by Edmonton," von Bergmann writes on his website. "Montreal registered a frighteningly surprising decrease in young adults, followed Québec city, Ottawa and Calgary.
Nice! That's my real life experience too which is opposite of the made up narrative that the CBC likes to push.

Vancouver real estate prices pushing millennials to leave city: report
If that's true then why are there out of towner renters everywhere :facepalm: , traffic jams :facepalm: , no parking :facepalm: , whole DT condo towers occupied 100% by renters :facepalm:.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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Dec 27, 2006
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seatiger wrote: Vancouver's rising number of young adults sharply eclipses national average over five-year period

It's become a truism in the media that young people are fleeing Vancouver.

That's because many of us know Vancouver-born and -raised people under the age of 40 who've left the city because of sky-high housing prices. And this shapes our perceptions that Vancouver is becoming a city of aging empty nesters.

In fact, the growth of the 25-to-39 population in Vancouver from 2011 to 2016 was more than 10 percent higher than the national rate, according to research by Vancouver data analyst Jens von Bergmann.

"Among the larger Census Metropolitan Areas in Canada, Toronto and Vancouver displayed the most surprising increase in the share of young adults, closely followed by Edmonton," von Bergmann writes on his website. "Montreal registered a frighteningly surprising decrease in young adults, followed Québec city, Ottawa and Calgary.

https://www.google.ca/amp/business.fina ... e1f995/amp
Deal Addict
Dec 27, 2006
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seatiger wrote: Vancouver's rising number of young adults sharply eclipses national average over five-year period

It's become a truism in the media that young people are fleeing Vancouver.

That's because many of us know Vancouver-born and -raised people under the age of 40 who've left the city because of sky-high housing prices. And this shapes our perceptions that Vancouver is becoming a city of aging empty nesters.

In fact, the growth of the 25-to-39 population in Vancouver from 2011 to 2016 was more than 10 percent higher than the national rate, according to research by Vancouver data analyst Jens von Bergmann.

"Among the larger Census Metropolitan Areas in Canada, Toronto and Vancouver displayed the most surprising increase in the share of young adults, closely followed by Edmonton," von Bergmann writes on his website. "Montreal registered a frighteningly surprising decrease in young adults, followed Québec city, Ottawa and Calgary.
http://business.financialpost.com/perso ... f6e9e1f995
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Some millennials are leaving but more are coming. Some fake news outlets are only covering half of the story.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... ty2016.pdf
The story for the Millennials is not that they are leaving, but that they are coming and staying. Yes, of every 1000 Millennials who lived in the region in 2015, 2 moved here during the previous year, but 998 were already here, staying put while they pursued careers, engaged in family and community, and, lived in homes. As a further context, Metropolitan Vancouver already has a disproportionate share of Millennials. While our 2015 population is 7.0 percent of Canada’s population, we have 7.5 percent of Canada’s Millennials; we have 27,500 more than our proportionate share. Oh, and the elephant in the room? There will be some who say that those 25 to 34 year olds who are coming here from other countries are not really Millennials or that they are not really “our Millennials”. Well, in fact they are, as our Millennials are largely here because of immigration.
Although they are from other countries, we should still count them as people if they are living in the region.
Last edited by zakarydoks on Aug 14th, 2017 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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zakarydoks wrote: The growth of household debt is concerning. The good thing is we are already tightening rules for Canadian borrowing. It also appears that the government is willing to do anything to protect jobs. They've lowered interest rates, allowed foreign investments and immigration. For sure, we could make it even harder to borrow money but be aware that we do not choke off jobs and growth. We need growth or else we end up like Japan :facepalm: . I'm not worried though because this is one area where the government's performance is satisfactory Smiling Face With Sunglasses.

So although debt is a concern. The government has many tools at its disposal for mitigation and make Canada competitive Smiling Face With Sunglasses.
It's actually SUPER easy to borrow money in Japan at ridiculously low interest rates.

Japan's problems are a rapidly aging population, people living a long time, an export based society next door to the world's biggest exporter, a massive bubble that came crashing down, combined with a culture that, although not hostile to foreign people and ideas (probably one of the more welcoming places in Asia), is inexperienced in dealing with immigrating them.

From an economic standpoint, Canada and Japan are quite different... though there are definitely lessons to be learned.
I'd love to write history... in advance.
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atomiton wrote: It's actually SUPER easy to borrow money in Japan at ridiculously low interest rates.

Japan's problems are a rapidly aging population, people living a long time, an export based society next door to the world's biggest exporter, a massive bubble that came crashing down, combined with a culture that, although not hostile to foreign people and ideas (probably one of the more welcoming places in Asia), is inexperienced in dealing with immigrating them.

From an economic standpoint, Canada and Japan are quite different... though there are definitely lessons to be learned.
Agree. I might use Japan too much as an example of bad economic policy but they are doing a lot of things right. Canada has big advantages over Japan in geography and natural resources and that helps mitigate the negative impacts of our policy mistakes.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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Dec 27, 2006
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zakarydoks wrote: Some millennials are leaving but more are coming. Some fake news outlets are only covering half of the story.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... ty2016.pdf


Although they are from other countries, we should still count them as people if they are living in the region.
http://m.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/03/01/c ... 80726.html

http://m.metronews.ca/#/article/news/va ... shows.html
Last edited by Motoss on Aug 14th, 2017 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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From the article:
Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver all ranked among just five major Canadian cities that saw a loss of locals to other cities between 2011 and 2014, the latest year for which data is available.
It's a bit surprising to see Toronto as a large net loser to internal migration, although a glance at its housing market probably goes a long way to explaining it,” wrote Laval University economics professor Stephen Gordon
Again, that's only half the story since immigration more than makes up for that outflow but even if people are leaving, so what?! People are free to choose where they want to live. People naturally migrate and we should not discourage and impede it.

Also, great timing for that article for using data from 2011 - 2014, when oil price boomed but just before bust. Calgary and Edmonton has the most inflow during that period. Care to guess how that data looks like for 2015-2017? We've been migrating for millenniums and we will continue to do so.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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Feb 9, 2009
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atomiton wrote: It's actually SUPER easy to borrow money in Japan at ridiculously low interest rates.

Japan's problems are a rapidly aging population, people living a long time, an export based society next door to the world's biggest exporter, a massive bubble that came crashing down, combined with a culture that, although not hostile to foreign people and ideas (probably one of the more welcoming places in Asia), is inexperienced in dealing with immigrating them.

From an economic standpoint, Canada and Japan are quite different... though there are definitely lessons to be learned.
Japan had a huge bubble, way way bigger than anything ever in Canada... coupled with no immigration to fuel demand of homes again.

As long as rates dont spike I see prices staying stubbornly high...
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Sanyo wrote: Japan had a huge bubble, way way bigger than anything ever in Canada... coupled with no immigration to fuel demand of homes again.

As long as rates dont spike I see prices staying stubbornly high...
Yeah, Canadian real estate bubbles don't pop... they slowly implode. Although there's some crazyness happening in Toronto lately. We're a bit too stubborn to take less and would rather wait out the market... even if it takes a decade to get back to normal... (which is a loss in real terms... but who's counting?)
I'd love to write history... in advance.
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