Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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The True North strong and free, indeed.

The Legatum Prosperity Index, published by the Legatum Institute in London, has ranked Canada as the number one country in terms of Personal Freedom, among a list of 142 nations. The Great White North was also ranked as “Most Tolerant,” with 92% of polled Canadians saying Canada is a good place for immigrants.

In the 2014 Prosperity Index, Canada was ranked fifth in terms of Personal Freedom, behind New Zealand, Norway, Australia, and Iceland."
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The only bubble is when I take a bath and have flatulence.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2377601/alrea ... d3afde30b3
New monthly numbers are in for existing home sales and prices in Vancouver and Toronto, and yes, selling prices continue to move higher at a blistering pace furthering a trend through 2015 — a year many thought would mark a breather in each city’s housing boom.

Maybe next year.

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In November, benchmark prices in Vancouver surged 17.8 per cent as sales soared 40.1 per cent, the region’s real estate association says. In slightly tamer Toronto, benchmark prices increased a relatively meagre 10.3 per cent as sales climbed 14 per cent compared to November a year ago, making 2015 the most active year on record for the country’s biggest housing market (eclipsing red-hot 2007).

Bidding wars

And it appears bidding wars are no longer confined to highly sought after homes in Toronto’s core – they’re taking place in the suburbs, too.

“Competition between buyers has strengthened in many neighbourhoods in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions,” Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s director of market analysis, said.

The price of a single-family detached home jumped 11.5 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area, TREB said. That figure – high by any historical standard — was overshadowed by the 22.6 per cent jump in detached home prices in the Greater Vancouver area, data from that city’s real board showed.

“November is typically one of the quietest months of the year in our housing market, but not this year,” Darcy McLeod, president of the city’s real estate association, said.

MORE: Sturdy as a house of cards? A look at Canada’s property boom

The Vancouver and Toronto markets have firmly decoupled from the rest of the country, where home prices are moving at a far more slower rate of about 2.5 per cent, according to CREA, the national real estate board.

What’s fueling the torrid price gains remains a matter of fierce debate, but many suspect a wave of foreign cash is playing a key inflationary role. Rock bottom interest rates are also continuing to fuel domestic demand.

“An influx of foreign wealth is one driving force, but lower interest rates — and the witches’ spell of forever-low rates—are also stirring the pot,” Sal Guatieri, economist at BMO, said in a recent note."
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Oct 18, 2014
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I haven't had a chance to go through every single posts, but had a question for the local Vancouverite.

Who is to blame? The buyers (foreigners) or the sellers (locals)?

The buyers may have driven the cost up since they are creating that demand, but the sellers are also selling to the highest bidder, regardless if it is a foreigner/local.

How many on here are homeowners? If you could sell your house to a local for $500k, and $2M to a local, who would you go with. Forget even selling it, do you prefer the value of your house to be $500k or $2M period? I know my friends in Vancouver could care less about millennials complaining and are all millionaires by default since they own their homes.
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The problem is the vacancy rates are low and there aren't enough new units being built.
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McKinsey wrote:
Dec 3rd, 2015 12:51 pm
I haven't had a chance to go through every single posts, but had a question for the local Vancouverite.

Who is to blame? The buyers (foreigners) or the sellers (locals)?
No one is to blame. Real estate prices are open to the global market, like many other cities in the world.
McKinsey wrote:
Dec 3rd, 2015 12:51 pm
The buyers may have driven the cost up since they are creating that demand, but the sellers are also selling to the highest bidder, regardless if it is a foreigner/local.

How many on here are homeowners? If you could sell your house to a local for $500k, and $2M to a local, who would you go with. Forget even selling it, do you prefer the value of your house to be $500k or $2M period? I know my friends in Vancouver could care less about millennials complaining and are all millionaires by default since they own their homes.
Who wouldn't want $2M? The higher the prices, the higher the rents. As a millennial, I find other millennials who complain often wouldn't have qualified to buy detached even if the prices were lower. Or they treated real estate as something that doesn't increase in price and took their time deciding. Others bought into the condo craze (because it's new and shiny) when they could have bought detached and spent some money fixing it. This situation really is almost like first year university STEM courses. It weeds out those who are ill equipped to deal with global competition.
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popbottle wrote:
Dec 3rd, 2015 1:35 pm
The problem is the vacancy rates are low and there aren't enough new units being built.
How so? Is that just anecdotal? Plenty of units are being built. Wasn't the real estate board just bragging about how many units are on the market? There seems to be no supply problem in Vancouver. Lots of land, lots of housing stock, lots of infill, lots of condos.
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It would be super easy to solve affordability in Vancouver however many existing homeowners wouldn't stand for the upzoning that would require and so having one's property fall within an upzoned area is like winning the lottery as it is done in limited areas only.
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atomiton wrote:
Dec 4th, 2015 12:10 am
How so? Is that just anecdotal? Plenty of units are being built. Wasn't the real estate board just bragging about how many units are on the market? There seems to be no supply problem in Vancouver. Lots of land, lots of housing stock, lots of infill, lots of condos.
Published vacancy rate in Vancouver is less than 1%. I think it's actually 0.8% in some parts of town. That's driving rent up.

It's also a sellers market right now due to the fact there isn't many choices listed for sale.
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Jul 1, 2015
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popbottle wrote:
Dec 4th, 2015 12:13 am
It would be super easy to solve affordability in Vancouver however many existing homeowners wouldn't stand for the upzoning that would require and so having one's property fall within an upzoned area is like winning the lottery as it is done in limited areas only.
Is it worth to buy into townhouse in area like Kitsilano or Point Grey? I see the prices are going up 100K in a short period of time from August to November this year. My question is do you guys think there will be a huge demand for townhouse in the next 2 or 3 years?
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Clutch77 wrote:
Dec 4th, 2015 12:39 am
Is it worth to buy into townhouse in area like Kitsilano or Point Grey? I see the prices are going up 100K in a short period of time from August to November this year. My question is do you guys think there will be a huge demand for townhouse in the next 2 or 3 years?
if you're looking for the best chance for appreciation scrape and save for at least a duplex if not a whole traditional house in east van instead of a townhome somewhere else. If you don't care too much about that then sure living in a townhome in kits is a nice thing.
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DDHLeigh wrote:
Dec 4th, 2015 12:36 am
Published vacancy rate in Vancouver is less than 1%. I think it's actually 0.8% in some parts of town. That's driving rent up.

It's also a sellers market right now due to the fact there isn't many choices listed for sale.
Published rental stats are useless in Vancouver because they only include purpose-built rental units. That may work in Montreal which has a large stock of those. But in Vancouver a massive number of rentals are from basement suites ( two per home ) and lane way homes.

This is also why there isn't a huge need for upzoning. Because city inspectors have turned a blind eye to second suites ( 1 suite is legal ) for years and years in Vancouver. And they've introduced lane way homes. This has added considerable density. I happen to think that it's a bit of a false economy and that its just Vancouver playing dumb to the obvious need to up zone but it is what it is.

I think that there should be a mass upzoning of any SFH within 1 km of any skytrain station. Not high rises but make it open season for property consolidation, townhouses, and low rises. Make it unilateral across Vancouver. Make the minimum lot width 30' like it is in newer neighbourhoods in Cloverdale. That would allow two houses side by side to be built as three. Make that unilateral and not requiring of any public consultation. Green light all applications. Quality of living goes up, you end up with a SFH that has just enough land for a SFH ( and not need 3 tenant units to support the main dwelling. ).
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Jul 1, 2015
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popbottle wrote:
Dec 4th, 2015 12:45 am
if you're looking for the best chance for appreciation scrape and save for at least a duplex if not a whole traditional house in east van instead of a townhome somewhere else. If you don't care too much about that then sure living in a townhome in kits is a nice thing.
Thank you but my priority is to look for a place that has good schools for my kids and the duplex around Kits are not afforable...(1.8 millions +). Btw which part of East van if you don't mind to share?

I saw some duplexs around 29 th Ave, Nanaimo area are decently priced. Thought?
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Clutch77 wrote:
Dec 4th, 2015 1:10 am
Thank you but my priority is to look for a place that has good schools for my kids and the duplex around Kits are not afforable...(1.8 millions +). Btw which part of East van if you don't mind to share?

I saw some duplexs around 29 th Ave, Nanaimo area are decently priced. Thought?
Yes that's exactly what I mean. Sure kits is a nice area but its more of a risk to get a townhome just for living there whereas duplexes near the 29th, nanaimo, or joyce stations have good access to anything. just make sure its at least 300 metres from the skytrain guideway
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atomiton wrote:
Dec 4th, 2015 12:56 am

I think that there should be a mass upzoning of any SFH within 1 km of any skytrain station. Not high rises but make it open season for property consolidation, townhouses, and low rises. Make it unilateral across Vancouver. Make the minimum lot width 30' like it is in newer neighbourhoods in Cloverdale. That would allow two houses side by side to be built as three. Make that unilateral and not requiring of any public consultation. Green light all applications. Quality of living goes up, you end up with a SFH that has just enough land for a SFH ( and not need 3 tenant units to support the main dwelling. ).
What you are suggesting here makes total sense. Another obstacle are the folks in the planning department at city hall. The more "one-offs", the more the public has to consult with them. Civil servants like to make things way more complicated than necessary for job security.

A developer building a house down the block told me it now takes one year from the time you apply to when you get a development permit just to build. And this is for a standard house that meets all zoning bylaws.
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Vancouver is going to be a resort town soon enough...

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