Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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popbottle wrote:
Dec 17th, 2015 1:11 pm
to the moon ladies and gentlemen
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/ben-myers/ ... 10878.html
"When you factor in the decline of the Canadian dollar, it suddenly appears as if Toronto and Vancouver have just gone on sale -- watch out for global bargain hunters."
Ben Myers
Senior Vice President, Market Research and Analytics, Fortress Real Developments.
Fortress Real Developments Inc. is a Canadian real estate development company that seeks out and analyses opportunities in major Canadian markets. The company is focused on quality projects with recognizable alpha in residential low-rise, high-rise, commercial, industrial and land servicing opportunities.
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Apr 20, 2011
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looks ok

dec 17 2015
http://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/no- ... 016-196333
"Canada’s economic conditions are gradually improving as the country climbs out of a technical recession. Statistics Canada recently stated the nation’s GDP grew 2.3% in Q3.

Modest increases in employment and earnings, coupled with low interest rates, should also support real estate demand in 2016.

“We should expect real estate markets across much of the country to remain stable in 2016, benefitting from low interest rates and firmer economic growth,” says Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “Markets in the oil-producing regions should begin to stabilize, as we expect oil prices to recover partially.”"
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http://www.vancourier.com/news/u-s-rate ... -1.2134340
The interest-rate hike could drive Metro Vancouver house prices higher and increase interest from foreign buyers, even as some mortgage rates are expected to rise in response to the announcement.

That’s because the rate hike will strengthen the American dollar and push the Canadian dollar lower, say economists.

“Americans will find [Canadian] real estate cheaper,” said Thomas Davidoff, a professor of economics at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business."
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Oct 7, 2007
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popbottle wrote:
Dec 19th, 2015 10:11 pm
http://www.vancourier.com/news/u-s-rate ... -1.2134340
The interest-rate hike could drive Metro Vancouver house prices higher and increase interest from foreign buyers, even as some mortgage rates are expected to rise in response to the announcement.

That’s because the rate hike will strengthen the American dollar and push the Canadian dollar lower, say economists.

“Americans will find [Canadian] real estate cheaper,” said Thomas Davidoff, a professor of economics at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business."
This is true. The Vancouver real estate market will continue to go higher until it pops. But that will never happen...
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popbottle wrote:
Dec 21st, 2015 11:42 am
less than 2% vacancies and 30,000 people a year needing a place to live

https://www.fcm.ca/Documents/reports/FC ... ada_EN.pdf
2% includes only mostly purpose-built rental buildings and townhouses, although it mentions 27% of Vancouver’s condominium
stock was rented ( many privately owned )

Doesn't appear to include the elephant in the room... basement and ground-level suites... In Vancouver, this consists of a MASSIVE proportion of units. A quick look at Craigslist confirms that.
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popbottle wrote:
Dec 19th, 2015 10:11 pm
http://www.vancourier.com/news/u-s-rate ... -1.2134340
The interest-rate hike could drive Metro Vancouver house prices higher and increase interest from foreign buyers, even as some mortgage rates are expected to rise in response to the announcement.

That’s because the rate hike will strengthen the American dollar and push the Canadian dollar lower, say economists.

“Americans will find [Canadian] real estate cheaper,” said Thomas Davidoff, a professor of economics at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business."
Not surprised to see media "report" that Americans are gobbling up "real-estate" in Canada, though. Real estate headlines sells papers. After all, when real-estate was SUPER cheap in the USA ( kind of still is, to be honest ) Canadians were the boogeymen swooping in to pick up houses at dirt-cheap prices in their media. And clearly, tonnes of Canadians all picked up all the houses in Arizona, right? Oh wait... we were too busy buying houses in our own back yard. Just like the vast majority of Americans will be.

Why would Americans buy Vancouver/Toronto properties that they would be net negative on? You can STILL purchase a place in lots of desireable US neighbourhoods, rent the place out, and be net positive on Day 1.
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atomiton wrote:
Dec 21st, 2015 5:32 pm
2% includes only mostly purpose-built rental buildings and townhouses, although it mentions 27% of Vancouver’s condominium
stock was rented ( many privately owned )

Doesn't appear to include the elephant in the room... basement and ground-level suites... In Vancouver, this consists of a MASSIVE proportion of units. A quick look at Craigslist confirms that.
No idea about alleged illegal dwelling units and even then there's only about 42,000 houses in Vancouver and not anywhere close to 30,000 new basement suites a year
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atomiton wrote:
Dec 21st, 2015 5:34 pm
Not surprised to see media "report" that Americans are gobbling up "real-estate" in Canada, though.
Americans usually pay in US dollars of course and Canadian property taxes are one third to one half of what they usually pay down there.
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atomiton wrote:
Dec 21st, 2015 5:34 pm
Not surprised to see media "report" that Americans are gobbling up "real-estate" in Canada, though. Real estate headlines sells papers. After all, when real-estate was SUPER cheap in the USA ( kind of still is, to be honest ) Canadians were the boogeymen swooping in to pick up houses at dirt-cheap prices in their media. And clearly, tonnes of Canadians all picked up all the houses in Arizona, right? Oh wait... we were too busy buying houses in our own back yard. Just like the vast majority of Americans will be.

Why would Americans buy Vancouver/Toronto properties that they would be net negative on? You can STILL purchase a place in lots of desireable US neighbourhoods, rent the place out, and be net positive on Day 1.
That is a good point. Even at current exchange rate, the American RE is often a far better value. As I mentioned above, it is the RE industry insiders that are pushing the narrative that the foreign buyers (who, by all available stats, represent less than 5% of the market) are going to start buying RE en masse and keep pushing the prices up. It's BS and they know it.
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Its well known that its about the foreign buyers. Especially with the Canadian dollar being down property in Canada is a much improved investment, particularly with property taxes in Canada being one third to one half of those in most of the US.

http://calgaryherald.com/storyline/its- ... in-calgary
"Christina Hagerty, a realtor with RE/MAX Realty Professionals in Calgary, said there has been an increase in foreign investors in the local market. "
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popbottle wrote:
Dec 21st, 2015 6:29 pm
Its well known that its about the foreign buyers. Especially with the Canadian dollar being down property in Canada is a much improved investment, particularly with property taxes in Canada being one third to one half of those in most of the US.

http://calgaryherald.com/storyline/its- ... in-calgary
"Christina Hagerty, a realtor with RE/MAX Realty Professionals in Calgary, said there has been an increase in foreign investors in the local market. "
From the above article by RE pimp...
Foreign ownership has risen to 1.1 per cent this year from 0.2 per cent in 2014.
Thanks for reiterating my point. :D
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popbottle wrote:
Dec 21st, 2015 5:36 pm
No idea about alleged illegal dwelling units and even then there's only about 42,000 houses in Vancouver and not anywhere close to 30,000 new basement suites a year
Suites are 100% legal in yvr. Secondary suites ( illegal) are ignored. Additionally lane way homes are being built.

Finally, 30000 refers to new people in the region not the city and that's people who require houses not units required.

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