Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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  • Jun 19th, 2019 2:31 am
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Deal Addict
Oct 7, 2007
4596 posts
1482 upvotes
atomiton wrote:
Mar 2nd, 2017 2:42 pm
DEAD cat bounce or a pause before we get $2M houses?

I'd LOVE to get my hands on the RAW data free of REB number smoothing.
There is quite a bit of data in the VREB real estate package if you download it. If there is still some data you are looking for you could probably ask the VREB for it.
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Dec 14, 2007
3038 posts
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choclover wrote:
Mar 3rd, 2017 10:22 am
There is quite a bit of data in the VREB real estate package if you download it. If there is still some data you are looking for you could probably ask the VREB for it.
I only need a CSV with all listings:
Address, Selling Price, Sq. Footage, Dwelling type, List Date, Sell Date.

If a property was just listed and still on market, it would have a list date, but no sell date.

I don't need averages. I can do that myself. I don't need a comparative up/down YOY, I can do that myself.

I'm pretty sure VREB doesn't include detailed sale data, and they even prohibit downloading the data off of their site to get this data. To get sales history for an address, you have to ask a realtor on a property by property basis... and you pay a small fee for each address.
I'd love to write history... in advance.
AMEX Biz Plat 75K AGAIN! | Plat 60K | Biz Gold 40K | Gold 25K | SPG 20K
Deal Addict
Jun 29, 2007
4325 posts
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VREB prefers not to provide data directly to consumers. They prefer you go thru a realtor. I have asked before.

Just finished looking at the Feb stats and wow I am surprised at the reversal, mostly brought on by lack of new listings. Big question is is it a 1 month exception or the start of an uptrend.

Vancouver West (most expensive real estate) was by far the strongest area so (foreign?) money may still be coming in. Have to see stats from bc govt about number of foreign buyers.
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Dec 14, 2007
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Speedy1 wrote:
Mar 3rd, 2017 5:15 pm
VREB prefers not to provide data directly to consumers. They prefer you go thru a realtor. I have asked before.
Yes. I have friends who used to work at the Real Estate Board as clerks there. They'd occasionally get requests to get property sales and were instructed not to give this data out. According to them, they even denied requests from the CRA, if they didn't go through a realtor... citing privacy concerns... which is silly when you think about it... when you can simply ask any realtor for details on any property and after a nominal fee ( $7 or something, per property? ) you get the entire selling history of a property.

REB doesn't provide the data in RAW form and en masse, because then they couldn't control the narrative. It's a lot harder to state certain things when the data is available to non-partisan third parties for analysis. The RE industry is one of the few industries that is self-governing.

It reminds me of a friend of mine from Vegas who can't stand BC gambling. Because Nevada has a state-run gaming board and because the state isn't involved in gaming... apart from reaping in taxes, the gaming board can back the public. He feels that the BC casinos, due to being partially owned by the government is a massive conflict of interest... and questions how the government can have ownership stake in casinos and yet be the governing body that sets the rules for the casinos.

Just finished looking at the Feb stats and wow I am surprised at the reversal, mostly brought on by lack of new listings. Big question is is it a 1 month exception or the start of an uptrend.
Surprising, also, given the weather. I imagine real estate was oversold in January... but without raw data, we have to guess. Just have to trust the numbers that the real estate board releases. (O.ô)
I'd love to write history... in advance.
AMEX Biz Plat 75K AGAIN! | Plat 60K | Biz Gold 40K | Gold 25K | SPG 20K
Deal Addict
Oct 7, 2007
4596 posts
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So far, whatever is happening in Vancouver appears to be completely independent of interest rate trends. It probably doesn't make any difference but the U.S. Federal Reserve announced today that it is planning to increase their interest rate in two weeks time. I am sure it won't have any impact here in Canada but it is just something to consider when looking at forces outside the local environment that may impact lending and behaviour of international investors.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
10683 posts
4238 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
choclover wrote:
Mar 4th, 2017 10:42 am
So far, whatever is happening in Vancouver appears to be completely independent of interest rate trends. It probably doesn't make any difference but the U.S. Federal Reserve announced today that it is planning to increase their interest rate in two weeks time. I am sure it won't have any impact here in Canada but it is just something to consider when looking at forces outside the local environment that may impact lending and behaviour of international investors.
That's because the average price of a detached house is out of the average person's reach that requires financing. If you remove the financing portion, you remove most of the major linkage to interest rates.
Last edited by craftsman on Mar 4th, 2017 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Oct 7, 2007
4596 posts
1482 upvotes
craftsman wrote:
Mar 4th, 2017 5:07 pm
That's because the average price of a detached house is out of the average person's reach that requires financing. If you remove the financing portion, you remove most of the major linkage to interest rates.
Actually what I intended to say was that the drop in real estate activity is occurring assuming no increase in interest rates. IF interest rates start to go up, OR IF people THINK they may go up, housing prices will surely be affected.
Deal Addict
Feb 7, 2006
2612 posts
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choclover wrote:
Mar 5th, 2017 10:12 am
Actually what I intended to say was that the drop in real estate activity is occurring assuming no increase in interest rates. IF interest rates start to go up, OR IF people THINK they may go up, housing prices will surely be affected.
This is sentence has been repeated on RFD in one form or another for years. Also in print, internet, blogs, street corners and of course Garth Turner's delightful and insightful daily crash blog. The funny thing is, the concept is closing in on a decade. Forget foreign buyers, house swappers, trust fund babys, new buyers, old buyers, and immigrant billionaires!

Money is cheap and as long as money is cheap folks will keep on grabbing the easily obtainable cash from the ever generous banks.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
10683 posts
4238 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
The Globe and Mail published an interesting article today in regards to interest from China into various regions of Canada - Chinese home buyers turn attention away from Vancouver .

Here's a few highlights -
Potential Chinese property buyers dramatically shifted their inquiries from Vancouver to other major Canadian cities after a foreign-buyer tax was introduced in Vancouver this past summer, according to data from Chinese foreign-property portal Juwai.com.

Inquiries for Vancouver properties on Juwai – China’s largest international-property website – fell 81 per cent in July compared to the same month a year earlier, and 78 per cent in August, and continued lower through the remaining months in 2016.

At the same time, inquiries spiked in other Canadian cities, with Toronto climbing 62 per cent in August and 72 per cent in September, and continuing higher throughout 2016. The number of Calgary inquiries soared more than 1,000 per cent in August and 420 per cent in September, while Montreal saw a 152-per-cent spike in September as more Chinese buyers started looking beyond Vancouver and Toronto.
The data provide another indicator of the impact of a new 15-per-cent tax on foreign buyers purchasing property in Vancouver, which was announced last July and took effect in August and is credited as a factor in a slowdown in Vancouver sales. While data are not systematically collected on foreign buyers in other Canadian markets, the Juwai numbers suggest a rapid shift of focus among potential Chinese purchasers to other cities
Mr. Henderson said there is a perception that many Chinese buyers are speculating in Canadian real estate, but the survey suggests most buyers, or their university-aged children, will live in the homes they purchase.
The Juwai data also showed most potential Chinese buyers are not looking for luxury homes. The median price range of property inquiries in Vancouver in 2016 was $590,200 and in Toronto was just $458,928, both well below the average home sale price of $897,600 and $740,685 respectively in those two cities.
The last two quotes are interesting... The first one might be a real estate agent slant on the subject in order to 'calm the waters' for foreign investment. However, there is a large amount of truth as you see stores about large homes having a few university students living in them. The last one shows exactly what the average family sees that has been looking for a home - foreign competition in the price range that they are look at.
Deal Addict
Jan 14, 2009
1651 posts
661 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
Price increases should slow a bit as wealthy potential buyers move to the GTA region.

The interesting thing is I have family from the GTA region that recently expressed interest in Vancouver real estate. Mostly retirement age people.

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