Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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  • Jun 24th, 2017 7:07 am
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Dec 14, 2007
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choclover wrote:
Mar 8th, 2017 11:18 am
It is no secret that wages in Vancouver do not even come close to supporting the real estate market prices. Clearly, the cash that is pushing the prices up must be coming from somewhere. And if the exorbitant prices were due to low interest rates, the prices would be exorbitant all over Canada, which they are not. Will be interesting to see if the cash that pushed the prices up stays in Vancouver real estate or moves elsewhere.
That's a simplistic view. Prices are HIGH throughout Canada, but you're right not exorbitant. Locals across Canada outside of Vancouver/Calgary/Toronto are somewhat immune to HAM (Hot Asian Money) Fear. There are simply fewer Asians in those places. Places like Vancouver/Toronto have high immgrant populations. It's easy to spread mania when 40% of your population "looks different." As such, locals (Asian Canadians included) are more affected by "alleged reports" that all the property is being bought up by China. The same tactics and strategy can't work the same in Windor, ON... Kamloops, BC, or Red Deer, AB.

Of course it's not ONLY cheap money that has led to this. There's a BIG portion of FOMO and HAM Phobia that plays into it as well.

A small HAM tax in BC doesn't prevent a Chinese Millionaire from buying a property here. IT's a footnote, to them.

Calgary has been in the doldrums for a long while now... no HAM tax there. Their RE is connected to oil prices, somewhat.

The cash IS coming from somewhere else. Mostly DEBT. It's just that this affects places like Vancouver/Toronto more, because there is a more visible interest from the Asian community and there are larger Canadian-citizen Asians in these places. Also, over the last 20 years, RE has become a speculative buy, instead of an investment. This perception is part of what has changed. Unfortunately, speculative plays can end up badly for those that overleverage themselves.
I'd love to write history... in advance.
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craftsman wrote:
Mar 9th, 2017 4:25 pm
Depends on your point of view. Judging from the popularity of the program, at least two parties think it's a great deal - the first time home buyer and the condo developers. Granted it adds to the debt level of the buyers but then realistically, many of those first time buyers weren't thinking clearly before as the pricing of housing moved up rapidly.
Condo Developers know it's a good deal for them.
Unrealistic first-time Home Buyers think it's a good deal.

Hmmm... who holds the balance of power in that relationship... it's not the customer.
I'd love to write history... in advance.
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Condo prices have started to go up again (in March).
Sales to active listing ratio of Vancouver condos is 68%! It needs to be around 15 for prices to go down.

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MashGhasem wrote:
Mar 10th, 2017 11:34 pm
Condo prices have started to go up again (in March).
Sales to active listing ratio of Vancouver condos is 68%! It needs to be around 15 for prices to go down.

People are rushing in thinking that it's either now or never.
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craftsman wrote:
Mar 11th, 2017 1:35 am
People are rushing in thinking that it's either now or never.
And they're not wrong. There's little land and we have the idiotic height restrictions and the view cones. I said this a bunch of pages back and one of the doom and gloom trolls decided to talk smack. As long as interest rates are favourable for buying RE and the height restrictions/view cones remain in place, downtown condo prices will stay where they are or go up. Again, imagine New York with a height restriction and view cones!!!! lmao. Units would cost 15 million a piece.
Edit: allow me to leave you with the obligatory straw-man argument of "but we're not New York" so you don't have to trouble yourself typing it out. My point obviously stands regardless.
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MashGhasem wrote:
Mar 11th, 2017 1:45 am
And they're not wrong. There's little land and we have the idiotic height restrictions and the view cones. I said this a bunch of pages back and one of the doom and gloom trolls decided to talk smack. As long as interest rates are favourable for buying RE and the height restrictions/view cones remain in place, downtown condo prices will stay where they are or go up. Again, imagine New York with a height restriction and view cones!!!! lmao. Units would cost 15 million a piece.
Edit: allow me to leave you with the obligatory straw-man argument of "but we're not New York" so you don't have to trouble yourself typing it out. My point obviously stands regardless.
I never said that they were right! Also, if you add in the fact that mortgages are going to go up up up this year (the US bond yields have been moving up recently), things are going to get ugly and fast as we could see as much as a 1% increase by this time next year.
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MashGhasem wrote:
Mar 11th, 2017 1:45 am
And they're not wrong. There's little land and we have the idiotic height restrictions and the view cones. I said this a bunch of pages back and one of the doom and gloom trolls decided to talk smack. As long as interest rates are favourable for buying RE and the height restrictions/view cones remain in place, downtown condo prices will stay where they are or go up. Again, imagine New York with a height restriction and view cones!!!! lmao. Units would cost 15 million a piece.
Edit: allow me to leave you with the obligatory straw-man argument of "but we're not New York" so you don't have to trouble yourself typing it out. My point obviously stands regardless.
Plenty of land in Vancouver.
Tokyo is much denser than Vancouver yet has plenty of SFH and plenty of low rises. Extremely livable. We are just in love with the giant SFH here and are doing everything we can to maintain this illusory dream that we need 35' wide lots with a house plunked on it. I'll spare you the straw man argument stating "but we're not Tokyo" because my pint still stands that you don't need height to create density. Tokyo also has its version of viewcones for SFHs and guess what... Many parts of Tokyo are cheaper and nicer than Vancouver.

Legislation to prevent proper densification in lieu of stupid infill while maintaining the status quo is ruining large swaths of Vancouver. I'm not against laneway homes but they should be able to be parcelled off and sold separately.

We have nondescript Vancouver specials with up to 3 suites in places where other cities would have simply torn down a couple of houses and put up row houses or pit three narrow SFHs instead 2 monster houses with laneway homes and 2 suites a piece. We have frankenhouses which require mortgage helpers to be carried. No one in East Vancouver lives in a SFH any more and there is no impetus to create true starter homes without being forced into being a landlord. Ugh. Ick.
I'd love to write history... in advance.
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atomiton wrote:
Mar 11th, 2017 2:31 am
Plenty of land in Vancouver.
Tokyo is much denser than Vancouver yet has plenty of SFH and plenty of low rises. Extremely livable. We are just in love with the giant SFH here and are doing everything we can to maintain this illusory dream that we need 35' wide lots with a house plunked on it. I'll spare you the straw man argument stating "but we're not Tokyo" because my pint still stands that you don't need height to create density. Tokyo also has its version of viewcones for SFHs and guess what... Many parts of Tokyo are cheaper and nicer than Vancouver.

Legislation to prevent proper densification in lieu of stupid infill while maintaining the status quo is ruining large swaths of Vancouver. I'm not against laneway homes but they should be able to be parcelled off and sold separately.

We have nondescript Vancouver specials with up to 3 suites in places where other cities would have simply torn down a couple of houses and put up row houses or pit three narrow SFHs instead 2 monster houses with laneway homes and 2 suites a piece. We have frankenhouses which require mortgage helpers to be carried. No one in East Vancouver lives in a SFH any more and there is no impetus to create true starter homes without being forced into being a landlord. Ugh. Ick.
If you consider Narita part of Tokyo, I guess you are right.
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atomiton wrote:
Mar 11th, 2017 2:31 am
Plenty of land in Vancouver.
Tokyo is much denser than Vancouver yet has plenty of SFH and plenty of low rises. Extremely livable. We are just in love with the giant SFH here and are doing everything we can to maintain this illusory dream that we need 35' wide lots with a house plunked on it. I'll spare you the straw man argument stating "but we're not Tokyo" because my pint still stands that you don't need height to create density. Tokyo also has its version of viewcones for SFHs and guess what... Many parts of Tokyo are cheaper and nicer than Vancouver.

Legislation to prevent proper densification in lieu of stupid infill while maintaining the status quo is ruining large swaths of Vancouver. I'm not against laneway homes but they should be able to be parcelled off and sold separately.

We have nondescript Vancouver specials with up to 3 suites in places where other cities would have simply torn down a couple of houses and put up row houses or pit three narrow SFHs instead 2 monster houses with laneway homes and 2 suites a piece. We have frankenhouses which require mortgage helpers to be carried. No one in East Vancouver lives in a SFH any more and there is no impetus to create true starter homes without being forced into being a landlord. Ugh. Ick.
You are right about "proper densification". City council is approving all kinds of densification projects while now using heritage to create even more density and it is really changing the look and feel of what used to be nice livable neighbourhoods in a rapid and poorly thought out way. We are not Manhattan and should not strive to be Manhattan. People do not make the kind of money here that they make in Manhattan. People who live in Manhattan only live there for the money and then have normal real estate outside so that they can breathe and relax. If the real estate market crashes and a bunch of people leave that were never technically living here in the first place, what will Vancouver look and feel like then? I don't think many people are even considering that the Vancouver market will ever fall. Maybe it won't but it is extremely naive to not plan for it because then when it happens everyone is dumbfounded because they never thought for a second that it could really happen. Kind of like the U.S. election result.
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SH0GUNS wrote:
Nov 2nd, 2012 2:15 am
Interesting thread , good job by the OP for starting this thread and updating with the stats , it's a shame that you only cover GVR though because you are missing the huge bubble going on in Vancouver Island (forget about Victoria , I'm talking about central Vancouver Island,) , $hit here is just as severe as in GVR in terms of "asking" prices VS actual house and land values
I only checked the last pages of the thread , but I noticed this extremely funny pattern of the clowns who denying the housing bubble arguing with this "stock market" parrot , this ***** is truly the special olympics of the internet and it's pretty tough to decide who is the bigger idiot here , the real estate bums - the ones who 2-3 years from now will flip burgers at McDonalds when their goldbricking RE "career" will be over , or this stock parrot who will get absolutely ***** slapped in the great "stock markets" , these great stock markets which are just as regulated as a frikkin whorehouse , but yeah , sure thing ,make sure to bump this thread when the TSX double\triple as you say , ask your grandchildren in advance to bump this thread 50+ years from now .
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BiegeToyota wrote:
Mar 11th, 2017 4:15 am
If you consider Narita part of Tokyo, I guess you are right.
Nobody considers Narita part of Tokyo.

But I do have numerous friends with houses either inside the Yamanote line or just outside. It would seem you have little firsthand knowledge of Japan. SFHs for 500,000 are easily found.
I'd love to write history... in advance.
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atomiton wrote:
Mar 12th, 2017 4:17 am
Nobody considers Narita part of Tokyo.

But I do have numerous friends with houses either inside the Yamanote line or just outside. It would seem you have little firsthand knowledge of Japan. SFHs for 500,000 are easily found.

Ridiculous. Maybe 50 square meter old condos go for that price.

What is your extensive first hand knowledge of Japan? A few penpal friends? I know quite a few Japanese in Bangkok who are buying high end properties here because it's a fraction of the price in Tokyo (and high end properties in Bangkok go for same or more than Toronto).

But let's see.... Put up some listings.
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BiegeToyota wrote:
Mar 12th, 2017 6:19 am
Ridiculous. Maybe 50 square meter old condos go for that price.

What is your extensive first hand knowledge of Japan? A few penpal friends? I know quite a few Japanese in Bangkok who are buying high end properties here because it's a fraction of the price in Tokyo (and high end properties in Bangkok go for same or more than Toronto).

But let's see.... Put up some listings.
the average asking price of a 70 sqm (753 sq ft) apartment in greater Tokyo in May was 29,980,000 Yen

that's 350K canadian. definitely cheaper than toronto

I really like how RE bulls still try to rationalize Toronto RE price using fake data

But this BeigeToyota is particular in spitting all that fake sh-t
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kashirin wrote:
Mar 12th, 2017 7:28 am
the average asking price of a 70 sqm (753 sq ft) apartment in greater Tokyo in May was 29,980,000 Yen

that's 350K canadian. definitely cheaper than toronto

I really like how RE bulls still try to rationalize Toronto RE price using fake data

But this BeigeToyota is particular in spitting all that fake sh-t

And do you have any real life experience besides googling things? This is the area that includes places like Narita. This is worse than comparing Milton to Toronto.

Fake news.
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2014 condo sold in Ginza, toyko, not some narita area
All 28 apartments offered during the first round of sales in Mitsubishi Jisho Residence’s The Parkhouse Higashi Ginza sold out on the same day.

The 13-storey apartment building is located a 1 minute walk from Shintomicho Station and is 700 meters from Ginza’s Chuo Dori Street. Apartments range in size from 70 ~ 81 sqm (753 ~ 872 sqft) and are all 3-bedrooms. Prices ranged from 74 ~ 108 million Yen (640,000 ~ 920,000 USD), with an average price of around 1,240,000 Yen/sqm.
avg price using today's exchange rate is 1352.31 cad$/sqft

took 3 min to look at listings in toyko
http://www.tokyoapartment.com/en/forsal ... 100&page=1

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