Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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  • Mar 26th, 2024 5:10 pm
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Deal Addict
Jan 9, 2014
1171 posts
741 upvotes
Toronto
We originally planned to buy a detached in Summer/Fall of 2019 but for lots of family reasons it didn't work out.
Now prices are up like 20% since then.... **** me... Prices are out of our range now. What are other people in my boat doing?
Newbie
Dec 27, 2020
9 posts
7 upvotes
Pharmer wrote: We originally planned to buy a detached in Summer/Fall of 2019 but for lots of family reasons it didn't work out.
Now prices are up like 20% since then.... **** me... Prices are out of our range now. What are other people in my boat doing?
Buy a townhouse before you get priced out of that too. Or wait, take the risk, and end up having to live in a condo... Or rent forever.
Banned
Jan 28, 2020
20 posts
11 upvotes
Vancouver
RxMills wrote:
Anyone noticing that some agents are trying to deceive people by leaving out the "East" on some listings? They'll put, for example, "2385 33rd Avenue". I don't think it's an accident, and it seems to be happening more frequently.
Yep. I've also noticed on listings that they like to say that Killarney is a "prestigious" neighbourhood. Maybe they're hoping that Chinese buyers confuse Killarney with kerrisdale?

RxMills wrote: My agent friend also told me yesterday about the "Nu Stream dip". Nu Stream listing agents often over-price a property by something like $150-200k to get the sales listing. After 2 months of little interest at that inflated price, they'll drop the price by $200k to get bids flowing in, and then sell the property about $50-80k above that new lower price. Nu Stream agents use the strategy to convince sellers to go with them. It seems to frequently work. It seems to be another spin on the "underprice a property to get a bidding war". This way, buyers perceive that they've "got a deal" and saved $200k and got the Nu Stream agent their sales commission. Many Nu Stream agents also have their voice mail messages begin in Mandarin and then give the English version. They know their target buyer.
Hmm I've also seen the opposite by them. Just saw a house listed by them for ~2.2, then around a wk later they relished for ~2.6.
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Jan 14, 2009
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Vancouver, BC
Pharmer wrote: We originally planned to buy a detached in Summer/Fall of 2019 but for lots of family reasons it didn't work out.
Now prices are up like 20% since then.... **** me... Prices are out of our range now. What are other people in my boat doing?
Same here. Originally wanted to buy a livable house for $1.6m, found nothing, then $2m, nope nothing, 2.5 now for knight/fraser and Marine drive lol, looks like I'm gonna try to time the market. We own the condo we live, it's a bit cramped, but at least we won't become priced out renters.

For the time being continue balls to wall in the stock market, margin, options etc.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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Jan 14, 2009
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Worldrallyblue wrote: Yep. I've also noticed on listings that they like to say that Killarney is a "prestigious" neighbourhood. Maybe they're hoping that Chinese buyers confuse Killarney with kerrisdale?




Hmm I've also seen the opposite by them. Just saw a house listed by them for ~2.2, then around a wk later they relished for ~2.6.
How about listing David Thompson and Moberly school catchment as a selling point? I guess it worked, they got 2.5m for an almost standard lot house at EAST 57th and Knight.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
Newbie
Dec 27, 2020
9 posts
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zakarydoks wrote: Same here. Originally wanted to buy a livable house for $1.6m, found nothing, then $2m, nope nothing, 2.5 now for knight/fraser and Marine drive lol, looks like I'm gonna try to time the market. We own the condo we live, it's a bit cramped, but at least we won't become priced out renters.

For the time being continue balls to wall in the stock market, margin, options etc.
If you try to time it and it just keeps going up, you might end up being priced even out of a townhouse. Why not upgrade for more space, since you have the budget? Get an end unit or go for a semi.
Deal Addict
Jan 9, 2014
1171 posts
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Toronto
So everyone was saying Vancouver housing price rise is due to foreign money, but with travel restrictions and lots of foreigners (rich Chinese especially) going back to China (cause they think it is safer there now).
Why are our prices still going up?
Cause of the super low interest rate? If that is the case then foreign money was not the issue then?
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Jan 14, 2009
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Vancouver, BC
TheSploot wrote: If you try to time it and it just keeps going up, you might end up being priced even out of a townhouse. Why not upgrade for more space, since you have the budget? Get an end unit or go for a semi.
We are living in a larger (1200 sqft) condo unit right now so it's not super urgent we upgrade. My wife is also nuts in that she doesn't want to sell our condo unit. Thankfully stock returns for me tend to outperform Vancouver real estate. Given our overall situation we should be OK to wait a bit. Some people get into trouble when they put their long term savings (to buy a long term asset) in short term vehicles like HISA or GICs. I'm not that stupid
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
Newbie
Dec 27, 2020
9 posts
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zakarydoks wrote: We are living in a larger (1200 sqft) condo unit right now so it's not super urgent we upgrade. My wife is also nuts in that she doesn't want to sell our condo unit. Thankfully stock returns for me tend to outperform Vancouver real estate. Given our overall situation we should be OK to wait a bit. Some people get into trouble when they put their long term savings (to buy a long term asset) in short term vehicles like HISA or GICs. I'm not that stupid
You do you. I just hope 1200 sq ft is enough for you long term, in the event you do get priced out, but that's a very small amount of space. But it sounds like you're willing to eat the premium you might end up having to pay by trying to time the market.
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Jan 14, 2009
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TheSploot wrote: You do you. I just hope 1200 sq ft is enough for you long term, in the event you do get priced out, but that's a very small amount of space. But it sounds like you're willing to eat the premium you might end up having to pay by trying to time the market.
Should be fine since we grew up with even less space.

I don't think you get it. If stocks outperform real estate which has always happened for me, then waiting has very little risk. In fact, because my NW will be higher, I can afford a bigger nicer house the longer I stay in the stock market.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
Newbie
Dec 27, 2020
9 posts
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zakarydoks wrote: Should be fine since we grew up with even less space.

I don't think you get it. If stocks outperform real estate which has always happened for me, then waiting has very little risk. In fact, because my NW will be higher, I can afford a bigger nicer house the longer I stay in the stock market.
That's not quite the entire picture. The thing you need to remember is a mortgage allows you to leverage in a way that you can't on margin with stocks, not without taking severe risks. So sure, your stocks may be doing 20% annual return, but a 5% increase on a property with only 10% down, for example, is actually a 50% return. But hey, if you feel you can beat that kind of rate of return then by all means, you should move to New York and become a wall street trader!
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Jan 14, 2009
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TheSploot wrote: That's not quite the entire picture. The thing you need to remember is a mortgage allows you to leverage in a way that you can't on margin with stocks, not without taking severe risks. So sure, your stocks may be doing 20% annual return, but a 5% increase on a property with only 10% down, for example, is actually a 50% return. But hey, if you feel you can beat that kind of rate of return then by all means, you should move to New York and become a wall street trader!
Yes but I can use margin, HELOC, and options on my portfolio. My portfolio usually return way way more than 20%. Vancouver and HK residential real estate is a benchmark I use to evaluate my portfolio. My portfolio has outpaced Vancouver and HK real estate by a lot in the last decade and should continue to do so. Covid, taper tantrum, US elections, 6 AM margin calls, position liquidations, I've seen it all and still beat Vancouver real estate by a large margin. I'm not worried.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
Newbie
Dec 27, 2020
9 posts
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zakarydoks wrote: Yes but I can use margin, HELOC, and options on my portfolio. My portfolio usually return way way more than 20%. Vancouver and HK residential real estate is a benchmark I use to evaluate my portfolio. My portfolio has outpaced Vancouver and HK real estate by a lot in the last decade and should continue to do so. Covid, taper tantrum, US elections, 6 AM margin calls, position liquidations, I've seen it all and still beat Vancouver real estate by a large margin. I'm not worried.
I'm sure, I'm sure. It's too bad all those massive returns somehow hasn't yielded enough to buy a sfh. Odd, that. *shrugs*
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Jan 14, 2009
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TheSploot wrote: I'm sure, I'm sure. It's too bad all those massive returns somehow hasn't yielded enough to buy a sfh. Odd, that. *shrugs*
Did I say I was buying my first SFH?
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
2789 posts
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Pharmer wrote: We originally planned to buy a detached in Summer/Fall of 2019 but for lots of family reasons it didn't work out.
Now prices are up like 20% since then.... **** me... Prices are out of our range now. What are other people in my boat doing?
We bought a detached house in the suburbs early this year. Had enough of the condo life. Long term, land appreciation wins.
Newbie
Dec 27, 2020
9 posts
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zakarydoks wrote: Did I say I was buying my first SFH?
Oh I'm sure you're practically a real estate baron ^_^ No doubt about it!
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Jan 14, 2009
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Alpine84 wrote: We bought a detached house in the suburbs early this year. Had enough of the condo life. Long term, land appreciation wins.
That's a good move. Condo fees are getting nasty with the insurance fiasco. With your own house you can follow your own budget.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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Jan 14, 2009
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TheSploot wrote: Oh I'm sure you're practically a real estate baron ^_^ No doubt about it!
When did I claim even close to that. My post history shows what I own and where. You are the one jumping all over me for missing out on 50% RoI by not buying even more real estate with 10% down - I wasn't even talking to you, not sure what's with the unsolicited advice. You're the real life Monopoly Man running around giving financial advice.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
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May 10, 2008
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Vancouver, BC
TheSploot wrote: I'm sure, I'm sure. It's too bad all those massive returns somehow hasn't yielded enough to buy a sfh. Odd, that. *shrugs*
I give him a lot of credit that he is working hard and doing well at growing his money to buy property. I wish I had skills like him at buying stocks so I won’t have to spend all my waking hours earning hourly wage to buy mine. While most people spent their holidays with family, I was at work just to make extra money working the stats and weekends. Be nice, he’s way ahead of a lot of people!
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Mar 30, 2017
1226 posts
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GVA
Pharmer wrote: So everyone was saying Vancouver housing price rise is due to foreign money, but with travel restrictions and lots of foreigners (rich Chinese especially) going back to China (cause they think it is safer there now).
Why are our prices still going up?
Cause of the super low interest rate? If that is the case then foreign money was not the issue then?
Government just wants a scapegoat to take the blame to cover up their incompetence. Foreigners have no say no vote and cant/not bother to defend themselves.

It is not foreigners, not immigrants, not money laundering, not empty homes. It is just simply low interest rate, outdated zoning plans with support of NIMBY to resist any change, and natural organic demands, and landlocked diminishing supplies of GVR.
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