want to preserve this for posterity. good luck.
of course it will be "different" this time in Toronto. https://biv.com/article/2017/11/housing ... ear-report
Apr 11th, 2019 8:50 am
want to preserve this for posterity. good luck.
Apr 11th, 2019 10:31 am
That is so awesome. Really, I mean it. I was getting so tired of hearing that Vancouver is one of the best places in the world to live. Hopefully Vancouver drops off the charts so that the investors look elsewhere.JayLove06 wrote: ↑Apr 11th, 2019 5:45 amI have always done my own research. That’s why I have always bought when people told me not to. Have done quite well. So is now the time to buy? You mean prices are tanking. Or are bears trying to time and he market and waiting for the bottom? You see, when this whole thing runs it’s course the people jumping up and down for a crash are not going to be as happy as they thought they would be.
BC has taken actions to create a sharp crash. I think that is a mistake.
Trump factor: he’s already trying to get them to stop raising rates so we will see. That clown seems to get what he wants. The can’t see US raising rates to the point it has a big effect over. Here. It’s not like they’re going to aggressively raise rates quickly and often. We really don’t know and that uncertainty is used to fear monger.
There’s a difference between concern and fear mongering.
Vancouver will be a hard hit city and frankly those who are struggling will still struggle. I’d at least rather struggle in a thriving environment.
That said, Toronto will be fine. Vancouver is not nearly as desirable to Toronto globally.
Apr 11th, 2019 1:52 pm
Apr 11th, 2019 3:26 pm
Realtors are done. Only the experienced, well connected realtors will survive this. The new ones and weak ones will have their sales taken from them. That 57% number will probably go up. Just look at the last 4 March's:RxMills wrote: ↑Apr 11th, 2019 1:52 pmIn 2018, 57% of real estate agents sold 0-1 units. Interesting statistic.
Currently, car leasing companies are being overwelmed by agents who are trying to unload their leased premium cars.
Agents and multi-unit owners promote that it's just be pessimistic and preaching doom and gloom. Most like to stay with the facts and current reality. And some watch the trends from experts at the ground level.
Buying opportunity? Now? Wait 12-18 months if you'd like a significantly lower buy-in point (20-35% lower).
Apr 11th, 2019 4:45 pm
Hmmm... doing some quick back of the envelope calculations, the benchmark is nothing more than the gross sales divided by the number of sales. If I remember correctly, the real estate industry has always said that the benchmark price is really a model price using a bunch of factors in order to create that price.adamtheman wrote: ↑Apr 11th, 2019 3:26 pmRealtors are done. Only the experienced, well connected realtors will survive this. The new ones and weak ones will have their sales taken from them. That 57% number will probably go up. Just look at the last 4 March's:
March 2016
5173 sales
7358 listings
$815,000 benchmark price
$4.22b gross sales
March 2017
3579 sales
7586 listings
$919,300 benchmark price
3.29b gross sales
March 2018
2517 sales
8830 listings
$1,084,000 benchmark price
2.73b gross sales
March 2019
1727 sales
12774 listings
$1,011,200 benchmark price
1.75b gross sales
Gross sales in March 2016 were 4.22 billion. In March 2019, only 1.75 billion. That's a 59% drop in sales, which means 59% less money for realtors, mortgage brokers, lawyers, notary publics, etc. I did a transaction with my local notary a few months ago and I needed it done last minute. He was super accommodating and flexible, got it done in a few hours. Afterwards I realized he is probably starving for business. Last time I used him 2016 he seemed like he didn't need my business, that kind of aura. Now he seems a lot nicer. Funny how that works. I think a lot of people in the FIRE industry are going to learn a hard lesson about the ups and downs of real estate. With 1727 sales and 12774 listings, things are about to explode.
Apr 11th, 2019 4:48 pm
I love putting down Vancouver, it always brings out the hurt feelings. Vancouver simply isn’t in the level of Toronto and I’m not talking about the weather.mkjr wrote: ↑Apr 11th, 2019 8:50 amwant to preserve this for posterity. good luck.
of course it will be "different" this time in Toronto. https://biv.com/article/2017/11/housing ... ear-report
Apr 11th, 2019 4:53 pm
Despite no one being able to afford anything? Either these lists are bs or things aren’t nearly as bad as you guys make it.
Apr 11th, 2019 9:02 pm
Yeah the Benchmark price is garbage, but I didn't feel like going through and adding up each of the categories separately by average price and then combining them all. The main point isn't the size of the numbers, but rather, the difference between the years.craftsman wrote: ↑Apr 11th, 2019 4:45 pmHmmm... doing some quick back of the envelope calculations, the benchmark is nothing more than the gross sales divided by the number of sales. If I remember correctly, the real estate industry has always said that the benchmark price is really a model price using a bunch of factors in order to create that price.
Apr 12th, 2019 8:21 am
I actually do not disagree with you. That is why I work in YYZ and not YVR. I grew up there smart guy. I am only illustrating that if people think that the real estate bubble burst in YVR is somehow isolated and unique and will never replicate itself in YYZ, you are on a one way train to delusionville and history is not on your side. Historically, and do your own research, in a recession, Ontario gets pounded much harder than YVR and the correction in the late 90s was much much worse here and the same types of "real estate is going to the moon" and the frenzied environment around developments is very much like it was in the 80s but I suspect that you were juts a little kid then. And certainly do not remember your parents getting shit canned and taking a bath on real estate. I do. I ever remember my parents getting a break from the bank for several months and rolling the missed payments into the mortgage at the end...yes, banks had some sympathy back then. People's short memories will hurt them.JayLove06 wrote: ↑Apr 11th, 2019 4:53 pmDespite no one being able to afford anything? Either these lists are bs or things aren’t nearly as bad as you guys make it.
Once you read the other cities on that list you realize how bogus it is. I don’t care about weather and mountains. I care about jobs, money, opportunity.
I find it funny though all the crying about how bad it is to live in Vancouver but the minute someone says the city is undesirable you guys lose your minds. Which is it?
Apr 12th, 2019 11:26 am
Good points. I find when people win in real estate or the stock market, they think they are super smart and better than others. However, a lot of the success in these markets has nothing to do with the investor's own individual efforts. Markets can go both up or down. However, when the market goes down, there is little the investor can do to change its direction. This is just how these markets work. Better to be realistic, humble and sensible rather than deluded and caught off guard. What is happening in Vancouver real estate is happening around the world. That is what makes it a little bit scary. The asset bubble created by the financial mess of 2008 is now deflating. Everyone needs to be ready for whatever is coming next.mkjr wrote: ↑Apr 12th, 2019 8:21 amI actually do not disagree with you. That is why I work in YYZ and not YVR. I grew up there smart guy. I am only illustrating that if people think that the real estate bubble burst in YVR is somehow isolated and unique and will never replicate itself in YYZ, you are on a one way train to delusionville and history is not on your side. Historically, and do your own research, in a recession, Ontario gets pounded much harder than YVR and the correction in the late 90s was much much worse here and the same types of "real estate is going to the moon" and the frenzied environment around developments is very much like it was in the 80s but I suspect that you were juts a little kid then. And certainly do not remember your parents getting shit canned and taking a bath on real estate. I do. I ever remember my parents getting a break from the bank for several months and rolling the missed payments into the mortgage at the end...yes, banks had some sympathy back then. People's short memories will hurt them.
Apr 12th, 2019 12:18 pm
Apr 12th, 2019 12:32 pm
You speak in way too many absolutes and are too easily riled. I don’t know what is in store for the market in Toronto. Unlike you and other super bears, I don’t act like I have a crystal ball and because something occurred before it will certainly occur again, today. I’m not debating that a crash will happen here. You don’t get points for that. But you would have to be an absolute moron to not see that prices are being pushed downwards by policy. So if we get a government in Ontario just like Vancouver that decide to cut prices in half, I don’t expect the same thing to happen in Toronto.mkjr wrote: ↑Apr 12th, 2019 8:21 amI actually do not disagree with you. That is why I work in YYZ and not YVR. I grew up there smart guy. I am only illustrating that if people think that the real estate bubble burst in YVR is somehow isolated and unique and will never replicate itself in YYZ, you are on a one way train to delusionville and history is not on your side. Historically, and do your own research, in a recession, Ontario gets pounded much harder than YVR and the correction in the late 90s was much much worse here and the same types of "real estate is going to the moon" and the frenzied environment around developments is very much like it was in the 80s but I suspect that you were juts a little kid then. And certainly do not remember your parents getting shit canned and taking a bath on real estate. I do. I ever remember my parents getting a break from the bank for several months and rolling the missed payments into the mortgage at the end...yes, banks had some sympathy back then. People's short memories will hurt them.
Apr 12th, 2019 12:57 pm
Sound like a bear who missed out. This is an asinine thing to say because plenty of people lost money even during the heyday were they just unlucky it made dumb decisions? Do you need to be a genius? No but I find people like you try to find ways to cope with missing out and make comments like the above. So now you’re praying for a crash so you can feel validated.choclover wrote: ↑Apr 12th, 2019 11:26 amGood points. I find when people win in real estate or the stock market, they think they are super smart and better than others. However, a lot of the success in these markets has nothing to do with the investor's own individual efforts. Markets can go both up or down. However, when the market goes down, there is little the investor can do to change its direction. This is just how these markets work. Better to be realistic, humble and sensible rather than deluded and caught off guard. What is happening in Vancouver real estate is happening around the world. That is what makes it a little bit scary. The asset bubble created by the financial mess of 2008 is now deflating. Everyone needs to be ready for whatever is coming next.
Apr 12th, 2019 1:04 pm
Apr 12th, 2019 2:06 pm