Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Jun 18th, 2019 5:39 pm
Tags:
None
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
5817 posts
5496 upvotes
Toronto
adamtheman wrote:
Apr 11th, 2019 3:26 pm
Realtors are done. Only the experienced, well connected realtors will survive this. The new ones and weak ones will have their sales taken from them. That 57% number will probably go up. Just look at the last 4 March's:

March 2016
5173 sales
7358 listings
$815,000 benchmark price
$4.22b gross sales

March 2017
3579 sales
7586 listings
$919,300 benchmark price
3.29b gross sales

March 2018
2517 sales
8830 listings
$1,084,000 benchmark price
2.73b gross sales

March 2019
1727 sales
12774 listings
$1,011,200 benchmark price
1.75b gross sales

Gross sales in March 2016 were 4.22 billion. In March 2019, only 1.75 billion. That's a 59% drop in sales, which means 59% less money for realtors, mortgage brokers, lawyers, notary publics, etc. I did a transaction with my local notary a few months ago and I needed it done last minute. He was super accommodating and flexible, got it done in a few hours. Afterwards I realized he is probably starving for business. Last time I used him 2016 he seemed like he didn't need my business, that kind of aura. Now he seems a lot nicer. Funny how that works. I think a lot of people in the FIRE industry are going to learn a hard lesson about the ups and downs of real estate. With 1727 sales and 12774 listings, things are about to explode.
Didn't the NDP factor in increased revenue from their new RE taxes in their budget? Won't this cause hundreds of millions in tax short falls?
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1110 posts
416 upvotes
mazerbeaner wrote:
Apr 12th, 2019 2:23 pm
Didn't the NDP factor in increased revenue from their new RE taxes in their budget? Won't this cause hundreds of millions in tax short falls?
They don't care. The RE taxes are so popular that they don't have to worry about balancing the budget. BC provincial debt is at manageable level, so they have plenty of money to rewards their buddies, as long as the public is focused on RE.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
5817 posts
5496 upvotes
Toronto
BlueSolstice wrote:
Apr 12th, 2019 3:31 pm
They don't care. The RE taxes are so popular that they don't have to worry about balancing the budget. BC provincial debt is at manageable level, so they have plenty of money to rewards their buddies, as long as the public is focused on RE.
I mean that's fine for a year or two but it will start having a multiplier effect as all related industries and their employees are also impacted. Think agents, lawyers, trades, banks etc. They will all also have reduced incomes, reduced spending. It can cause lasting damage for decades. Then you start having growing debt and reduced income, start having to take on high interest debt. It all compounds, takes time for impact to be seen as people go through savings and incur debt.
Banned
User avatar
Apr 11, 2019
4 posts
Yaah, but after spending a few years in the greater Vancouver area I was blown away from the housing costs over there. I think most people would be.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1110 posts
416 upvotes
JayLove06 wrote:
Apr 11th, 2019 4:48 pm
I love putting down Vancouver, it always brings out the hurt feelings. Vancouver simply isn’t in the level of Toronto and I’m not talking about the weather.

Go look at the tourism numbers. Toronto dwarfs Vancouver. Also dwarfs them economically. More jobs, more head offices. More concerts, more professional sports teams, more schools, world class hospitals. No one knows the Canucks outside of Canada. Toronto also more multi cultural than Vancouver.

Not to mention the political situation there they’re trying to keep immigrants with money out. Futures not looking too good over there.

Toronto has already had drops in certain areas but for the most part we are better off than Vancouver. You really think NDP is a chance here? Lol.
If Ford has won anything but a straight majority, ONNDP would have formed a government with Liberal support, so I would say they do have a chance in Ontario. And they would do a better job at wrecking RE, along with the province in general, than BCNDP. I'm a RE bull, but I try to keep in mind all risks, including political risks.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
10679 posts
4236 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
mazerbeaner wrote:
Apr 12th, 2019 2:23 pm
Didn't the NDP factor in increased revenue from their new RE taxes in their budget? Won't this cause hundreds of millions in tax short falls?
Yes they did.

Which makes you wonder if the NDP understand the idea of cause and effect... and how this math thing works?
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
10679 posts
4236 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
Of course, it is. Large sums of money take time to move unless you want to lose a lot of it in moving that money.

Besides, some may have actually moved here full time.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
10679 posts
4236 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
notenoughsleep wrote:
Apr 12th, 2019 7:07 pm
This one is weird...bought and sold in 12 days?

Address Year Built Sold Price Sold Date Bought Price Bought Date Profit/Loss %
9391 LASKO STREET 1986 $1,568,000 01-Jan-19 $1,566,000 20-Dec-18 0.13
Maybe laundering of funds....
[OP]
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 3, 2004
4996 posts
3261 upvotes
Vancouver
notenoughsleep wrote:
Apr 12th, 2019 7:07 pm
This one is weird...bought and sold in 12 days?

Address Year Built Sold Price Sold Date Bought Price Bought Date Profit/Loss %
9391 LASKO STREET 1986 $1,568,000 01-Jan-19 $1,566,000 20-Dec-18 0.13
Saw that one too. With transfer tax it would have been a loss. Seems suspicious. Maybe they think no one is watching?
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
10679 posts
4236 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
JayLove06 wrote:
Apr 12th, 2019 9:19 pm
Is it only the chinese who are laundering money?
Let's not be racist here. Every race launders funds - it's standard operating procedures. It's just that the ones that are being shown in Vancouver are Chinese. I'm sure that if you go to London, England, they would be Eastern Europeans or Russian. And of course, in Italy, they would be Italian organized crime.

Top