Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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  • Oct 12th, 2019 12:41 pm
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Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11297 posts
4609 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
BlueSolstice wrote:
Jul 9th, 2019 2:44 pm
Lol this forum is filled with evidence that rent control doesn't work. Good luck finding a place to rent when landlords can't raise rent to market rates.
No need to take that tone. I'm just stating that the NDP place a cap on increases so there might be a delay on increases but I didn't say that it would prevent increases higher than the cap... just that it MAY slow them down a bit.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1340 posts
547 upvotes
civiclease wrote:
Jul 9th, 2019 5:20 pm
I don’t see how renters being $400 richer will increase demand and push rents up. You think the renter pool will swell just to get that $400? lol

And the real consequence of this rebate will be that all the landlord tax cheats will be instantly exposed. A smart tenant who knows the landlord isn’t declaring the income could cut a deal - demand a rent reduction in exchange for NOT declaring on tax return for the rebate.
A tenant can already threaten to report to CRA and blackmail the landlord. How many tenants are doing that? Actually if a small fraction of landlord on the margins (retirees with a basement suite) decide not to rent out their property because of the hassle of dealing with taxes, shortage of rental units would immediately get much worse. It's like cracking down on illegal basement suites -- legal and up to code housing don't materialize out of thin air when you condemn less than ideal housing.
Deal Addict
Dec 27, 2006
1944 posts
921 upvotes
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/capital ... urvey.html

Beijing’s capital controls are weighing on Chinese investors looking to buy property abroad
Kelly Olsen
Published Tue, Feb 26 2019 8:13 PM EST
GP: Real estate California condos 190125
Pedestrians walk past the offices of Oceanwide Holdings, promoting iconic bedroom condos for the unfinished Oceanwide Plaza in Los Angeles, California on January 25, 2019, one of the biggest real estate development projects in downtown LA.
Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images
Chinese investors are keeping unchanged or even reducing the amount of money they allocate for overseas property purchases as they continue to struggle to get money out of the country, according to a survey conducted by a global real estate services company.

That comes amid China’s continued campaign to clamp down on funds leaving the country. Beijing ramped up capital controls several years ago to fight a volatile currency, but the last few months of slowing economic growth, a declining current account surplus and uncertainty due to the trade war with the United States have led many to believe those measures will persist.

On top of that, it became increasingly difficult for investors to obtain loans last year as Beijing sought to control the high levels of debt in the real estate sector.

In its 2019 China Outbound Real Estate Investor Intention Survey conducted during the final three months of last year, Cushman & Wakefield found that a combined 84 percent of respondents had either kept their funds for foreign real estate acquisitions at about the same level or reduced them compared with 2017.

The firm said the results, released Friday, were based on responses from 51 mainland Chinese who invest in overseas real estate and who represent combined offshore capital of 280 billion yuan ($41.81 billion).

The survey also found that 65 percent of respondents were “significantly or severely impacted” by Beijing’s measures to crack down on money leaving the country, an increase from 50 percent who expressed such a view in 2017.

Also, 60 percent of respondents said they didn’t think policy restrictions would ease this year while 59 percent expressed the view that domestic lending conditions for real estate won’t improve.

Chinese investors acquired a total of $15.7 billion worth of overseas real estate in 2018, down 63 percent from 2017 and the lowest figure since 2014, according to data from Real Capital Analytics cited in the Cushman & Wakefield report.

Capital controls

The report mentioned restrictions placed on foreign real estate investment in 2017 and a significant tightening of lending in the sector last year. That loan environment was the main reason more than $12 billion in Chinese-owned overseas assets were put up for sale in 2018.

“We expect that Chinese banks’ real estate lending may remain tight for much of the year ahead, creating an environment that will clearly continue to restrict deployment of mainland Chinese capital in general, irrespective of geographic location,” James Shepherd, Cushman & Wakefield’s managing director for Greater China Research, said in a press release on the report.

The firm said in the report that despite some recent loosening of policy in China, such as authorities encouraging banks to lend more by cutting the amount of funds they must keep on hand, “the tightened lending environment appears to remain status quo for the real estate sector.”

Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Commodities and Global Markets, said that controlling capital outflows is the “key concern” of the Chinese government given the waning of its current account surplus and that it doesn’t want foreign exchange reserves to fall too fast.

“So in such a situation they definitely want lower, reduced capital outflows,” Hu told CNBC on Tuesday. “So they put (on) tighter capital controls.”

The domestic property market, meanwhile, is offering little in the way of opportunities.

Peter Churchouse, founder of Hong Kong-based real estate investment firm Portwood Capital, said that tight supply is supporting prices somewhat, but residential transactions by floor area showed limited growth of about 2 percent last year and have fallen as much as 20 to 25 percent in a number of cities so far in 2019.

“That is a signal that we’re going to see a bit of a slowdown in the first half of this year in terms of volumes of transactions,” Churchouse said on CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Friday.

“I would expect to see that reflected in pricing as well,” Churchouse said. “Not to see a decline in pricing, but to see the pace of growth slowing down,” he said.
Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
1283 posts
768 upvotes
Vancouver
"First-Time Home Buyer Incentive doing little to help buyers break into Vancouver market"

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – Here’s some good news for anyone trying to break into Metro Vancouver’s real estate market – prices continue to drop with even condominiums now seeing a decline for the first time since late 2014.

But even so, it seems a government program meant to give first-time home buyers a break isn’t doing much of anything to help them get a foothold.

The problem is the restrictions the government program places on mortgage and purchase prices are just too low in a market like Metro Vancouver.

“They’re not really making a dent in the market, and they’re not really giving the home buyers the leverage they need to really break into the market,” she says.

To be eligible for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, an eligible buyer can not have a combined household income that exceeds $120,000 and the mortgage they take out can not exceed four times their income.

“So if you were purchasing a home with a minimum five per cent down payment and you have the maximum allowed income, the calculations show that the maximum home price you’re looking at is about $505,000,” Graham tells NEWS 1130. “It can go upward of about $560,000 if you are making a larger down payment, but in a market like Vancouver, where the benchmark home price in June was over $900,000, it’s not really going to put a dent in the affordability issue for many first-time home buyers.”



https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/07/10 ... vancouver/
Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
1283 posts
768 upvotes
Vancouver
"Vancouver Detached Real Estate Sales Fall To Multi-Decade Low, Losses Get Bigger"
July 10, 2019
Better Dwelling

Better Dwelling
VANCOUVER
Vancouver Detached Real Estate Sales Fall To Multi-Decade Low, Losses Get Bigger

JULY 10, 2019
Greater Vancouver’s detached real estate market slipped a little lower last month. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) numbers show prices dropped in June. Prices for the market dropped as inventory made a small decline, and sales had the worst June in almost 30 years.

Greater Vancouver Detached Real Estate Prices Are Down Over 10%

Greater Vancouver detached real estate prices are falling, according to the benchmark price. REBGV reported a typical detached home hit $1,423,500 in June, down 10.9% from last year. In the City, Vancouver East prices fell to $1,350,100, down 12.1% from last year. In Vancouver West, the benchmark fell to $2,912,000, down 14% from last year. That last one is down a whopping $15,600 from just the month before.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouv ... et-bigger/
Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
1283 posts
768 upvotes
Vancouver
izzyzz wrote:
Jul 11th, 2019 9:36 am

"Sources say RCMP opened file on Liberal MP whose firm facilitated real estate deals in B.C."

Global News
July 11, 2019
By Sam Cooper

https://globalnews.ca/news/5476467/emba ... e-sources/
Canada needs a fededal policing agency (Canadian FBI). The RCMP is a small-town police force that's more concerned about its image and being politically correct.

There is no investigative agency for dirty politicians.

............................

"Global News has learned the RCMP opened a file on B.C. Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido after confidential police informants alleged the veteran politician had been knowingly associating with Chinese organized crime figures through his former real estate law practice in Richmond, B.C."

.........................

Photo:
B.C. Liberal MP
Joe Peschisolido


Image

Who voted for this guy? Zoom in close. Looks high on drugs.

The people are best represented by a dirty ex-lawyer?
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11297 posts
4609 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
RxMills wrote:
Jul 11th, 2019 1:43 pm
Canada needs a fededal policing agency (Canadian FBI). The RCMP is a small-town police force that's more concerned about its image and being politically correct.

There is no investigative agency for dirty politicians.

............................

"Global News has learned the RCMP opened a file on B.C. Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido after confidential police informants alleged the veteran politician had been knowingly associating with Chinese organized crime figures through his former real estate law practice in Richmond, B.C."

.........................

Photo:
B.C. Liberal MP
Joe Peschisolido


Image

Who voted for this guy? Zoom in close. Looks high on drugs.

The people are best represented by a dirty ex-lawyer?
I don't see how another police agency is going to help investigate dirty politicians... it's not like the FBI in the US is having any luck in 'draining the swamp' or preventing new swamp monsters from moving in...

Canadian needs a properly funded police force that is at arm's length from the politicians and that can be the RCMP.
Member
Jul 25, 2008
385 posts
264 upvotes
ottawa
the RCMP is a federal policing agency. They do investigate dirty politicians. Ask Brian Mulroney. I invite you to your nearest detachment to inform them of your feedback that they are a small-town police-force concerned with their image. I lack the medical expertise to concurr with your view on Pescisolido but you appear to have experience with pharmaceuticals.

instead of focusing on your political agenda, maybe focus on the policing issue here, which is that real estate agents, lawyers, brokers, etc are not bound by very strict reporting regulations and are therefore open conduits for fraud and laundering.
Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
1283 posts
768 upvotes
Vancouver
Real Estate Stats Week #27

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Listed: 1,060 ($1.30 Billion)
Average price: $1.23M

One week ago...
1,001 properties ($1.26 Billion)
Average price: $1.26M

Two weeks ago...
904 properties


Sold: 41 ($44.20 Million)
Average price: $1.078M

One week ago...
25 properties ($24.98 Million)
Average price: $0.999M

Two weeks ago...
37 properties ($42.74 Million)
Average price: $1.155M

Source: Fisherly

.................

Summary:

The # of property listings continues to rise each week for Vancouver.



.
Last edited by RxMills on Jul 14th, 2019 3:41 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Sr. Member
Dec 30, 2012
900 posts
972 upvotes
Toronto
https://boingboing.net/2019/07/11/chine ... ty-of.html

Chinese oligarch sues city of Vancouver over $200,000 "Empty Homes Tax"

In recent years, Chinese oligarchs have been buying up vast swaths of Vancouver real estate as a way to park their money. They often don't set foot in the luxury townhouses they buy, which has led the Vancouver city government to issue a 1% Empty Homes Tax. A Chinese woman named He Yiju, who is married to a "top politician in China's rubber-stamp parliament" according to CNN, owns a $20 million waterfront mansion and is suing the city to avoid paying the $200,000 tax bill.

She and her husband have a combined net worth of $925 million according to Forbes. $200,000 to someone with a net worth of $925 million is equivalent to $210 to someone with a net worth of $1 million.
Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
1283 posts
768 upvotes
Vancouver
civiclease wrote:
Jul 14th, 2019 3:34 pm
https://boingboing.net/2019/07/11/chine ... ty-of.html

Chinese oligarch sues city of Vancouver over $200,000 "Empty Homes Tax"
Additional to the above news story:

"Vacant for years, but owner suing over vacancy tax"
Vancouver Sun
July 14, 2019

In 1997, the house at 4749 Belmont Ave. overlooking Spanish Banks was sold for $4.08 million. And no one seems to have lived there since.

The address on the building permit for He Yiju is another house on Belmont owned by another executive from Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric, Zheng Lei Qi.

He purchased the property for $19.75 million in 2012, and it is currently assessed at $27.669 million.

Zheng is also a deputy in the National People’s Congress in China, representing Zhejiang province south of Shanghai.

One of the big draws for wealthy Chinese investors in Vancouver real estate has been the lack of “publicly accessible records of the beneficial owners of property or companies.”

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-new ... acancy-tax

....................

They just keep buying acres of prime Vancouver real estate and claim to be local residents.

These billionaire buyers are all senior officials within the Chinese Communist Party.

Isn't communism supposed to be where everyone is "equal"?
I guess the top members are "more equal".

Senior communist party officials are exempt from Chinese capital outflows?

For Canada Revenue Agency purposes, the owner (his wife) has no income and qualifies for all low income benefits in addition to being a First Time Home Owner (BC). A carpenter moving here from Calgary can't claim that exemption if they owned a home there.


Image

Image
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11297 posts
4609 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
RxMills wrote:
Jul 14th, 2019 3:18 pm
Real Estate Stats Week #27

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Listed: 1,060 ($1.30 Billion)
Average price: $1.23M

One week ago...
1,001 properties ($1.26 Billion)
Average price: $1.26M

Two weeks ago...
904 properties


Sold: 41 ($44.20 Million)
Average price: $1.078M

One week ago...
25 properties ($24.98 Million)
Average price: $0.999M

Two weeks ago...
37 properties ($42.74 Million)
Average price: $1.155M

Source: Fisherly

.................

Summary:

The # of property listings continues to rise each week for Vancouver.



.
And it will continue to do so as we are now officially past the peak selling season with no magical recovery in sight. More condos are being completed as I type with more of the pre-sales flippers looking for a way out.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11297 posts
4609 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
RxMills wrote:
Jul 14th, 2019 3:57 pm
Additional to the above news story:

"Vacant for years, but owner suing over vacancy tax"
Vancouver Sun
July 14, 2019

In 1997, the house at 4749 Belmont Ave. overlooking Spanish Banks was sold for $4.08 million. And no one seems to have lived there since.

The address on the building permit for He Yiju is another house on Belmont owned by another executive from Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric, Zheng Lei Qi.

He purchased the property for $19.75 million in 2012, and it is currently assessed at $27.669 million.

Zheng is also a deputy in the National People’s Congress in China, representing Zhejiang province south of Shanghai.

One of the big draws for wealthy Chinese investors in Vancouver real estate has been the lack of “publicly accessible records of the beneficial owners of property or companies.”

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-new ... acancy-tax

....................

They just keep buying acres of prime Vancouver real estate and claim to be local residents.

These billionaire buyers are all senior officials within the Chinese Communist Party.

Isn't communism supposed to be where everyone is "equal"?
I guess the top members are "more equal".

Senior communist party officials are exempt from Chinese capital outflows?

For Canada Revenue Agency purposes, the owner (his wife) has no income and qualifies for all low income benefits in addition to being a First Time Home Owner (BC). A carpenter moving here from Calgary can't claim that exemption if they owned a home there.


Image

Image
Here's an interesting quote from that same Vancouver Sun article -
A former Vancouver Sun foreign affairs columnist, Jonathan Manthorpe, said one of the big draws for wealthy Chinese investors in Vancouver real estate has been the lack of “publicly accessible records of the beneficial owners of property or companies.”

“It was easy to bring money in here and nobody would know whose it was or what it was doing,” said Manthorpe, who recently released a best-selling book, Claws of the Panda: Beijing’s Campaign of Influence and Intimidation in Canada.

The ownership of 4749 Belmont would have remained under the radar if He Wiju hadn’t gone to court over the vacancy tax, which is one per cent of the value of a property.

“I have no idea why she’d be doing that,” said Manthorpe. “Usually, people in these situations don’t want to draw attention to themselves.”
I suspect that Chinese currency controls are taking their toll on those who have moved some but not enough of their 'wealth' outside of China. They may be short of liquid Western funds to spend.

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