Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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  • Sep 15th, 2019 12:51 am
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Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
1264 posts
753 upvotes
Vancouver
Nice site for traditionally unreported news.

Found another article there that shows how Vancouver's Real Estate industry financially supports specific political parties.
....................

"Vancouver real estate industry bucked-up for Trudeau"
BUSINESS NEWS
THE BREAKER
JUNE 20, 2019

SUN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRESIDENT CHRIS LEE AT THE MAY 22 TRUDEAU LIBERAL FUNDRAISER

Bob Rennie’s Olympic Village developer clients Peter Malek and Shahram Malekyazdi, the brothers who run Millennium Development, were there.

Baynham was also the lawyer for Vision Vancouver in 2014 when Rennie was then-Mayor Gregor Robertson bagman.

Wall Centre general manager Sascha Voth and Wall Financial director David Gruber also attended.

Real Estate Marketer Bob Rennie was joined by Bien Matute, Sheliza Vellani and Natalie Genest from Rennie and Associates Realty.

Amy Venhuizen of Richmond-based MYIE Group. MYIE stands for Mo Yeung International Enterprise< and Venhuizen is the assistant to namesake CEO Mo Yeung Michael Ching. MYIE is developing the International Trade Centre in Richmond, which will include an Opus Hotel.

Elsewhere on the list, two of the names match those of University of B.C. students and their given postal code is for an area on Billionaires Row.
https://thebreaker.news/news/trudeau-fu ... rs-may-22/

Motoss wrote:
Aug 18th, 2019 3:46 pm
IMO this is the biggest reason Vancouver is softening.

Exclusive: Condo buyer from Nanjing says China currency controls led to collapsed West Van deal

https://thebreaker.news/business/chen-vs-onni/
Last edited by RxMills on Aug 18th, 2019 6:52 pm, edited 13 times in total.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11182 posts
4561 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
Motoss wrote:
Aug 18th, 2019 3:46 pm
IMO this is the biggest reason Vancouver is softening.

Exclusive: Condo buyer from Nanjing says China currency controls led to collapsed West Van deal

https://thebreaker.news/business/chen-vs-onni/
That started it... now that the prices are dropping, no-one wants to put new money into a market only to see that market drop. After all, why buy today if you believe you can get it cheaper next month or 6 months from now?
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1280 posts
512 upvotes
craftsman wrote:
Aug 18th, 2019 6:15 pm
That started it... now that the prices are dropping, no-one wants to put new money into a market only to see that market drop. After all, why buy today if you believe you can get it cheaper next month or 6 months from now?
Since a crash is well underway and not reversible, would you consider writing to your MLC and BCNDP leadership and asking them to roll back all housing related taxes and fire Eby?
Deal Addict
Oct 7, 2007
4919 posts
1662 upvotes
BlueSolstice wrote:
Aug 19th, 2019 9:59 am
Since a crash is well underway and not reversible, would you consider writing to your MLC and BCNDP leadership and asking them to roll back all housing related taxes and fire Eby?
Is that a serious question or a sarcastic one? I am no fan of the NDP nor Eby and am "taking a hit" on all sides under this government in terms of increased property taxes and "drop in property value" but this is the first government in a long time that has done anything to bring housing insanity under control. It is only just a very small start but our society is suffering from this terrible run up in pricing and for us to become truly liveable as a city we need for things to come back to reality again. I am NOT okay with the increased taxes but am somewhat okay with the drop in property value but hope that the NDP government can find a way to refine its taxes to target those who don't live, work and pay taxes in the region as opposed to those who do, like me.
Jr. Member
Dec 5, 2009
102 posts
24 upvotes
The data over the last 2 months shows that the market is supported very well (calculated by looking at selling price VS assessed ratio). If priced at the right discount you will find a buyer almost immediately. Will need to see how the rest of the year goes, but we have definitely reached a support level.
Jr. Member
Mar 20, 2011
190 posts
128 upvotes
Langley, BC
Motoss wrote:
Aug 18th, 2019 3:46 pm
IMO this is the biggest reason Vancouver is softening.

Exclusive: Condo buyer from Nanjing says China currency controls led to collapsed West Van deal

https://thebreaker.news/business/chen-vs-onni/
Definitely a big part of it, it's why we're also seeing the market softening in Seattle even though they didn't introduce any measures to deter foreign buyers like Vancouver did.
Sr. Member
Dec 30, 2012
872 posts
924 upvotes
Toronto
Alpine84 wrote:
Aug 19th, 2019 3:01 pm
The data over the last 2 months shows that the market is supported very well (calculated by looking at selling price VS assessed ratio). If priced at the right discount you will find a buyer almost immediately. Will need to see how the rest of the year goes, but we have definitely reached a support level.
Market is down 15-30% depending on municipality and nothing goes down in a straight line. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few months of flat prices through the fall.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1280 posts
512 upvotes
choclover wrote:
Aug 19th, 2019 11:38 am
Is that a serious question or a sarcastic one? I am no fan of the NDP nor Eby and am "taking a hit" on all sides under this government in terms of increased property taxes and "drop in property value" but this is the first government in a long time that has done anything to bring housing insanity under control. It is only just a very small start but our society is suffering from this terrible run up in pricing and for us to become truly liveable as a city we need for things to come back to reality again. I am NOT okay with the increased taxes but am somewhat okay with the drop in property value but hope that the NDP government can find a way to refine its taxes to target those who don't live, work and pay taxes in the region as opposed to those who do, like me.
Obviously a sarcastic one. This crash is solely the product of Eby. Remove Eby, and party goes on. As for whether BCNDP/Green is overall a net plus/minus for the province / Canada as a whole, they haven't been governing for long enough for us to draw any conclusions. As money leaves the province, perhaps unemployment would go up, for those not working in government and not having a lot of advanced education. Or perhaps RE is really not contributing that much to the economy.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11182 posts
4561 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
BlueSolstice wrote:
Aug 19th, 2019 9:59 am
Since a crash is well underway and not reversible, would you consider writing to your MLC and BCNDP leadership and asking them to roll back all housing related taxes and fire Eby?
NDP roll back taxes? What universe are you from? The only way the NDP will roll back taxes is if they are thrown out of office.
Deal Addict
Oct 7, 2007
4919 posts
1662 upvotes
CanadaJimmy wrote:
Aug 19th, 2019 3:34 pm
Definitely a big part of it, it's why we're also seeing the market softening in Seattle even though they didn't introduce any measures to deter foreign buyers like Vancouver did.
It would be interesting if we could separate causation from correlation when it comes to factors contributing to downward pressure on real estate. Also, if we could find a way to measure how much each causation factor is contributing to the downward pressure on pricing. It could very well be that the measures the NDP are making it appear as if they are responsible for the downward effect on house prices when it may have very little to do with them and more to do with global issues. At least we can say that they were bold enough to try to steer things downward. We may never know what the true impact of their policies has been but certainly from a theoretical standpoint they would put downward demand on speculative buying.
Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
1264 posts
753 upvotes
Vancouver
David Eby and the NDP/Green group have been excellent.

The midrange and low end markets are doing just fine, considering their increases far exceeded all other markets for many years.

Unless there is a significant recession, brought on by external global markets and events, even the oversupplied condo market will be fine.

Interest rates are headed back down. That will help Canadians go deeper into financial debt to afford more "home".

The Canadian dollar has come back down and is headed lower which will make Vancouver's properties priced even lower for foreign money ("locals" with foreign money, and future Canadians).

Regarding Hong Kong, China's being extremely careful. In minutes, billions could leave Hong Kong with a few keystrokes and that economic asset could be permanently lost.

Those with real money have long since parked it outside of Hong Kong. It's those that are less well off that have been making last minute inquiries.

So, China will resolve the Hong Kong issue that will keep its asset, and infiltrate the country by other ways, as communist governments usually do - - slowly and quickly deal with the top problem people.

The US is suffering more now from the trade war with Americans now blaming Trump more than China. China is slowly getting Trump pushed out with the hopes of a new deal post Nov'2020.

However, a Trump victory is still very possible. That extra year of "waiting" further pushes the global economy further into a recession, which China will suffer significantly. China wants enough recession to push out Trump without too much recession to shoot itself long-term.

So the NDP/Green will have done a spectacular job at reducing the massive impact of over-speculation of Vancouver's real estate market due to foreign, often illegally derived, and tax-exempt, cash.

Meanwhile Bob Rennie, and all the other Real Estate and Development players, will do everything to try to push them out to get their massive financial returns back. The old corrupt BC Liberal gang is still there waiting (minus Christy, who has done extremely well as a Shaw Director and Legal Corporate Consultant).

There are of course the unknown wildcards whose actions could change things quickly... Iran, North Korea, EU further problems, etc. It's impossible to predict how things will be at the end of 2020.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11182 posts
4561 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
RxMills wrote:
Aug 20th, 2019 1:05 pm

Regarding Hong Kong, China's being extremely careful. In minutes, billions could leave Hong Kong with a few keystrokes and that economic asset could be permanently lost.

Those with real money have long since parked it outside of Hong Kong. It's those that are less well off that have been making last minute inquiries.
According to media reports, the Canadian government has not received any extra inquiries from Hong Kong residents (ie those with Canadian Passports that live in Hong Kong and non-citizens) about moving to Canada. So, the story of 300,000 may be more hype from the RE industry as the facts don't seem to bear it out.
RxMills wrote:
Aug 20th, 2019 1:05 pm
So, China will resolve the Hong Kong issue that will keep its asset, and infiltrate the country by other ways, as communist governments usually do - - slowly and quickly deal with the top problem people.

The US is suffering more now from the trade war with Americans now blaming Trump more than China. China is slowly getting Trump pushed out with the hopes of a new deal post Nov'2020.

However, a Trump victory is still very possible. That extra year of "waiting" further pushes the global economy further into a recession, which China will suffer significantly. China wants enough recession to push out Trump without too much recession to shoot itself long-term.
The problem may not be a Trump victory but a left side of the Democrats victory (ie Saunders or Warren) as some (ie Warren) have stated on the record that they would be tougher on China than Trump.

RxMills wrote:
Aug 20th, 2019 1:05 pm
So the NDP/Green will have done a spectacular job at reducing the massive impact of over-speculation of Vancouver's real estate market due to foreign, often illegally derived, and tax-exempt, cash.
We might be putting more faith into what is broadcasted in the news than what's actually happening. Throughout the world, the level of foreign investment into local real estate has dropped even in those areas that have not done anything to restrict foreign purchases or may not be as politically friendly to those foreign funds (ie US to Chinese investments). So, the downtrend may have less to do local polices and laws than the current slow down in China and the sense that real estate investment is no longer the 'in' investment.

What you could say is that BC is a less desireable place to put funds than other parts of Canada but that, once again, may not be due to current local laws/policies but rather there's a downward market momentum (ie who wants to buy any investment if the price is falling on that investment) AND the market is overpriced compared with the rest of Canada.
Deal Addict
Jun 11, 2005
2594 posts
283 upvotes
You also don't know how much effect the stress test had on market prices. To say that the GreeNDP has done a spectacular job at reducing... is oversimplifying it.

Also, it is nice to be able to say such a government has done a spectacular job on this. Of course, you are unlikely the one who has suffered a 30% decline on the biggest investment of your life which would be magnified if the purchase was mortgaged. Easy for you to say - speak for yourself.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11182 posts
4561 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
mudd_stuffin wrote:
Aug 20th, 2019 7:56 pm
You also don't know how much effect the stress test had on market prices. To say that the GreeNDP has done a spectacular job at reducing... is oversimplifying it.

Also, it is nice to be able to say such a government has done a spectacular job on this. Of course, you are unlikely the one who has suffered a 30% decline on the biggest investment of your life which would be magnified if the purchase was mortgaged. Easy for you to say - speak for yourself.
As the stress test is really a national policy, we can compare what's happening in the rest of Canada to BC to have a better understanding of the effects of the stress test. Of course, the affordability factor may skew the stress test to have a greater damping effect than other parts of Canada where affordability isn't as extreme as in BC.

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