Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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  • Feb 25th, 2020 1:04 am
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Jr. Member
Jun 4, 2013
109 posts
72 upvotes
Vancouver
PS_GUY wrote: Anyone got their property assessment statement yet? Burnaby here. Detached single home. Ours went down 18%. 8% was the average for Burnaby.
Went down 14% apartment near Coquitlam center. However I have a feeling property tax will go up by 5% or more this year.
Jr. Member
Aug 18, 2007
108 posts
12 upvotes
Vancouver
sponge5307 wrote: Went down 14% apartment near Coquitlam center. However I have a feeling property tax will go up by 5% or more this year.
14% seems pretty high for a condo/apartment. I thought they'd have the least change of all the properties.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
5897 posts
2266 upvotes
I think that Vancouver real estate is suffering from the word for more tired than fatigue. On the flip side, this forum appears to be 99.9% filled with real estate matters affecting Toronto. Personally, I think Vancouver RE is all talked out for at least 10 years.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1689 posts
760 upvotes
choclover wrote: I think that Vancouver real estate is suffering from the word for more tired than fatigue. On the flip side, this forum appears to be 99.9% filled with real estate matters affecting Toronto. Personally, I think Vancouver RE is all talked out for at least 10 years.
Vancouver RE is a political matter. Toronto RE will soon become political as well, with the mention of RCMP shutting down financial crimes. I think bears has given up on "fundamentals".
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
5897 posts
2266 upvotes
BlueSolstice wrote: Vancouver RE is a political matter. Toronto RE will soon become political as well, with the mention of RCMP shutting down financial crimes. I think bears has given up on "fundamentals".
It is interesting to see the lust in people's posts when they talk about Toronto RE. The psychology and state of mind sounds all too familiar. If Vancouver can be used as a model for what's coming, I don't think Toronto has any idea of being careful what they wish for. Not to mention how their municipal governments will start taxing them to death as soon as the market turns.
Jr. Member
Mar 20, 2017
131 posts
163 upvotes
choclover wrote: I think that Vancouver real estate is suffering from the word for more tired than fatigue. On the flip side, this forum appears to be 99.9% filled with real estate matters affecting Toronto. Personally, I think Vancouver RE is all talked out for at least 10 years.
Thank God! All anyone could hear in public for the past 20 years was other people talking about real estate being/selling/flipping/speculation. The city had become a vapid, shallow husk of humanity.
Jr. Member
User avatar
Oct 27, 2008
138 posts
59 upvotes
Coquitlam
gahafa wrote: so hows everything going
Seems to be pretty slow. The number of listings in my city went up 20% since Jan1st. I am wondering if people getting their assessments and seeing a drop has anything to do with it. A couple of people I know who recently bought a condo for investment are trying to offload it for even money.
Jr. Member
Mar 26, 2015
113 posts
26 upvotes
Richmond, BC
HockeyFanatic wrote: Seems to be pretty slow. The number of listings in my city went up 20% since Jan1st. I am wondering if people getting their assessments and seeing a drop has anything to do with it. A couple of people I know who recently bought a condo for investment are trying to offload it for even money.
I tried to look at a few properties but were told by agents that they were closed for showings for until mid feb or mar... even though listings are available

I wonder if they're speculating where things are going or something.

I also wonder if the corona virus will have any effect on the market... being Richmond and all
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
12130 posts
5267 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
gahafa wrote: I tried to look at a few properties but were told by agents that they were closed for showings for until mid feb or mar... even though listings are available

I wonder if they're speculating where things are going or something.

I also wonder if the corona virus will have any effect on the market... being Richmond and all
I believe that the virus and the travel restrictions now in place may cause some of the funds flow to completely stop from the mainland. I would suspect that previously, people made regular trips between the mainland and overseas destinations carrying cash (not huge piles of cash but just under $10,000 per person type of thing) as electronic transfer methods were being closely watched and regulated. Now that they can't make those regular trips, the cash transfers will be drying up. That may put pressure on those satelite families as time drags on.
Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
1358 posts
835 upvotes
Vancouver
E39M62 wrote: Thank God! All anyone could hear in public for the past 20 years was other people talking about real estate being/selling/flipping/speculation. The city had become a vapid, shallow husk of humanity.
You said it. It comes up frequently in most conversations and it's been like that for about 7 years.

This thread is 900 pages long and in its 9th year. Looking back at 2012 now, the market (the OP's beginning) was well past its fundamentals. But those were economic fundamentals of our Canadian real estate market. Everyone underestimated the impact of one thing...

CHINESE MONEY despirately wanting to leave

In hindsight, an immigration consultant or travel planner in China was a far better predictor of the future Vancouver real estate market.

When there's a sizable group with a lot of cash that don't care about historic property valuations and local economic fundamentals, the market will be substantially influenced in that direction.

So, if the Chinese economy shrinks, what happens to the Vancouver housing market?

If the Corona virus further spreads to the economic main cities like Beijing, what happens to the Vancouver housing market?

What new rules will the CCP undertake?

Know those answers and you'll know where the Vancouver market is going.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
12130 posts
5267 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
RxMills wrote: You said it. It comes up frequently in most conversations and it's been like that for about 7 years.

This thread is 900 pages long and in its 9th year. Looking back at 2012 now, the market (the OP's beginning) was well past its fundamentals. But those were economic fundamentals of our Canadian real estate market. Everyone underestimated the impact of one thing...

CHINESE MONEY despirately wanting to leave

In hindsight, an immigration consultant or travel planner in China was a far better predictor of the future Vancouver real estate market.

When there's a sizable group with a lot of cash that don't care about historic property valuations and local economic fundamentals, the market will be substantially influenced in that direction.

So, if the Chinese economy shrinks, what happens to the Vancouver housing market?

If the Corona virus further spreads to the economic main cities like Beijing, what happens to the Vancouver housing market?

What new rules will the CCP undertake?

Know those answers and you'll know where the Vancouver market is going.
One thing is for certain, if the Chinese economy starts slowing too much, the Chinese government will start looking for scapegoats to pin this on and a favourite for them (regardless of who actually is in power) are 'corrupt' officials or companies as defined by whoever is in power at the time (which generally means corrupt = any opposition to them in the CCP or those who don't seem to be on the side of the homeland - ie anyone who took their money and ran). We have seen a preview of their actions on their large multinationals like ANBANG, which the government now controls and is selling off their assets, and ANBANG's CEO who is now in prison for 18 years.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
5897 posts
2266 upvotes
RxMills wrote: You said it. It comes up frequently in most conversations and it's been like that for about 7 years.

This thread is 900 pages long and in its 9th year. Looking back at 2012 now, the market (the OP's beginning) was well past its fundamentals. But those were economic fundamentals of our Canadian real estate market. Everyone underestimated the impact of one thing...

CHINESE MONEY despirately wanting to leave

In hindsight, an immigration consultant or travel planner in China was a far better predictor of the future Vancouver real estate market.

When there's a sizable group with a lot of cash that don't care about historic property valuations and local economic fundamentals, the market will be substantially influenced in that direction.

So, if the Chinese economy shrinks, what happens to the Vancouver housing market?

If the Corona virus further spreads to the economic main cities like Beijing, what happens to the Vancouver housing market?

What new rules will the CCP undertake?

Know those answers and you'll know where the Vancouver market is going.
Good analysis.

I am curious on your thoughts for the REASONS why this money left or is leaving and where did it go?
Jr. Member
Mar 26, 2015
113 posts
26 upvotes
Richmond, BC
choclover wrote: Good analysis.

I am curious on your thoughts for the REASONS why this money left or is leaving and where did it go?
Was in Richmond Costco on Monday...there were all of maybe 10 people
Jr. Member
Aug 21, 2017
124 posts
47 upvotes
Smh if you look at the ethinicity of new immigrants, number of Chinese has shrinked significantly in the last couple of years.

The RE market now is fueled mainly by Canadian investors. That's why GTA, Ottawa and Montreal are the hottest - that's where Canadian money is at.
RxMills wrote: You said it. It comes up frequently in most conversations and it's been like that for about 7 years.

This thread is 900 pages long and in its 9th year. Looking back at 2012 now, the market (the OP's beginning) was well past its fundamentals. But those were economic fundamentals of our Canadian real estate market. Everyone underestimated the impact of one thing...

CHINESE MONEY despirately wanting to leave

In hindsight, an immigration consultant or travel planner in China was a far better predictor of the future Vancouver real estate market.

When there's a sizable group with a lot of cash that don't care about historic property valuations and local economic fundamentals, the market will be substantially influenced in that direction.

So, if the Chinese economy shrinks, what happens to the Vancouver housing market?

If the Corona virus further spreads to the economic main cities like Beijing, what happens to the Vancouver housing market?

What new rules will the CCP undertake?

Know those answers and you'll know where the Vancouver market is going.

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