Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Apr 3rd, 2020 4:38 pm
Tags:
None
Jr. Member
Mar 26, 2015
120 posts
35 upvotes
Richmond, BC
I think there's going to be some interesting things going on.

What's going to happen with Chinese money? With the corona virus there's going to be a greater need for money for their business back home and when they start selling off their vacation homes here what's going to happen to the market?

It's going to be especially apparent in the Richmond and Vancouver market... thoughts?
Sr. Member
Mar 24, 2011
831 posts
149 upvotes
Vancouver
BlueSolstice wrote: A building from the 21st century, so not one of these 90's leaky condos with massive problems. Would be interesting to see how much it eventually sells for.
Is it those 90s buildings I have to be wary of? Any good gauge from what year buildings have higher chance of better materials perhaps?
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
12581 posts
5745 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
choclover wrote: This type of behaviour makes me contemplate where we really are in terms of "Stages in a Bubble" diagram:
https://transportgeography.org/?page_id=9035
We may still be in the fear stage as putting out a low ball price in the hopes of getting a bidding war happening is an example of fear on both sides - Buyer is definitely FOMO but the seller is taking a good gamble that FOMO will happen. In the past, the sellers never had to do this as FOMO buyers would be coming out of the woodwork at an inflated base price to start with.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
12581 posts
5745 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
gahafa wrote: I think there's going to be some interesting things going on.

What's going to happen with Chinese money? With the corona virus there's going to be a greater need for money for their business back home and when they start selling off their vacation homes here what's going to happen to the market?

It's going to be especially apparent in the Richmond and Vancouver market... thoughts?
It's not just the vacation home angle... but how will they fund the families members already here living in some of those houses with funds availability dropping? And how many of those family members would actually want to return home so that they can sell their place here given the conditions back home?
Jr. Member
Mar 26, 2015
120 posts
35 upvotes
Richmond, BC
craftsman wrote: It's not just the vacation home angle... but how will they fund the families members already here living in some of those houses with funds availability dropping? And how many of those family members would actually want to return home so that they can sell their place here given the conditions back home?
don't forget, there are more China restrictions on money going out of the country, how will they fund their extravagant lives

I don't see the Economy doing well short term for them, I believe it's a lot worse than we think
Member
Jun 18, 2015
211 posts
1151 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
pentexplorer wrote: It's a building from 2008, 861 sq ft for $609k .. tons of people and even offers without subjects before the closing date. Kingsway / Fraser area.
That's really interesting. I'm trying to sell my 2 bed/2bath + flex, 890 sq ft, 2 year old condo for in River District. Haven't had much luck. I know a lot of people aren't interested in the River District area, but IMO, I think they are not aware of what's going on down there. On the flip side, I went to look at a townhouse by the Edmonds skytrain station, 14 years old, 1400 sq ft, 3 bed, 3 bath, listed at $930K... first open house this past weekend, they got an offer and accepted it yesterday morning. Not sure what it sold for, but clearly good enough for them to accept it that quick and not give much more time for additional offers.
Jr. Member
Aug 21, 2017
130 posts
66 upvotes
It's too far from skytrain. but if you price it lower maybe more will be interested lol.
screenthis wrote: That's really interesting. I'm trying to sell my 2 bed/2bath + flex, 890 sq ft, 2 year old condo for in River District. Haven't had much luck. I know a lot of people aren't interested in the River District area, but IMO, I think they are not aware of what's going on down there. On the flip side, I went to look at a townhouse by the Edmonds skytrain station, 14 years old, 1400 sq ft, 3 bed, 3 bath, listed at $930K... first open house this past weekend, they got an offer and accepted it yesterday morning. Not sure what it sold for, but clearly good enough for them to accept it that quick and not give much more time for additional offers.
Member
Jun 18, 2015
211 posts
1151 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
fiddlewin wrote: It's too far from skytrain. but if you price it lower maybe more will be interested lol.
That's fair, but there's a bus stop going in River District soon that will take you to Metrotown, so that's a plus. Before, you would have to walk up to Marine and Kerr and take the 100 to Marine Gateway or you walk to Boundary/Marine and take the bus there to Metrotown.
Newbie
Feb 4, 2004
24 posts
8 upvotes
screenthis wrote: That's fair, but there's a bus stop going in River District soon that will take you to Metrotown, so that's a plus. Before, you would have to walk up to Marine and Kerr and take the 100 to Marine Gateway or you walk to Boundary/Marine and take the bus there to Metrotown.
Yeah the skytrain is a huge factor. Plus I think Townhouses are more desirable than condos (ie separate entrances, personal garages sometimes, no one above or below you sometimes).

I personally do not value a new bus stop going up where I live. Taking the bus is still kind of a drag, most people would still prefer to drive and or park and ride from a skytrain station.

The price of a unit will always be what someone else is willing to pay. Take a look at sold comparables in your complex or area and find out their sale price. That should give you a pretty good indication on what the true market price should be. (try zealty or redfin)
Member
Jun 18, 2015
211 posts
1151 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
lawonga wrote: Yikes! So River district flippers screwed?
I wouldn't say screwed, but maybe too greedy? Hard to say because it just depends on the market and people's perception. I bought my place (2 bed/2 bath, 890 sq ft) as presale for $479K. Assessment right now is $715K and I've got my place listed for $750K. Needless to say, I'm happy with my "flip" even if I sell it for $700K. I believe my place could sell around $720-$730K, but the one issue I'm currently facing is that the guy 1 floor below me, facing north is listed at $730K (same layout). It doesn't make sense for me, 1 floor above, facing south (view of the Fraser River), to be at the same price. I'm in no rush to sell though, so I'll just ride into Spring and see what happens.

Over the last 3 months, there's been a total of 6 listings that have sold, even split in terms of layout (1 be/ba vs 2 be/ba). 1 beds were going for about $560K, 2 beds going for $720K. There's currently 12 listings available for sale.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Dec 24, 2002
5366 posts
923 upvotes
chenwaa123 wrote: I work in the insurance industry and this is becoming a huge issue. There are plenty of reasons, such as the overall hard insurance market, and large water losses in many strata buildings which imo are partly due to poor building codes that do nothing to limit damage.

The building code should be changed to prevent/limit water loses from a unit by isolating units or floors from each other. Water shut off devices and alarms should be mandatory. Appliances and should be inspected annually, drains should be required under Dishwashers, Refrigerators and Washing Machines.

The problem is that these changes would cost a builder more to build and they don't want that because it affects their profitability. These same builders lobby governments and they are able to influence government regulations.

I can understand that a builder will want to keep construction costs low and this does help keep the unit sale price lower to help with affordability but what they are really doing is kicking the cost down the road to the end consumer.

Most of us are also concerned about the environment and preventing waste, when these water claims occur they create a huge impact on the environment. In many cases, large parts of a unit or building must be removed, thrown away and replaced with new drywall/flooring/cabinetry and machinery (elevators for example). No one ever thinks about this - the environmental impact must be immense. All that power used for running fans, all those contractors driving their trucks back and forth to a job site and the whole industrial complex needed to create more new drywall, flooring, cabinetry and machinery.
100% agree and I see the claims on these as well , Typical claim - line to toilet /washing machine broke (10 year old building ) - flooding damage to multiple units and believe me contractors aren't cheap ( esp. when they know insurance will pay)
http://www.heatware.com/eval.php?id=14378

Ole Gunnar IN!!!!


I promise not to cut your taxes but I won't raise them either.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1750 posts
801 upvotes
choclover wrote: Is this a canary in the coal mine?

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-new ... ulled-back
That's pretty old news. Builders are scaling back pre-sales and focusing on completing existing projects and getting buyers to take possession. On one hand, there are a lot of units in the pipeline already. On the other hand, market seems to be holding steady, and underlying economy is decent. I wouldn't bet on a huge crash yet.

Top