Real Estate

Vancouver Housing Market Implodes: Average Home Price Plunges 20% In 1 Month

  • Last Updated:
  • Aug 27th, 2016 12:02 am
Deal Addict
User avatar
Sep 23, 2014
1962 posts
677 upvotes
Toronto, ON
AMRadio wrote: one thing i think we need to keep in when defining "high-end market"

when the median price for a home is 21x the average income, everything is "high-end market".

in other words, it's all ONE market, and repercussions will be felt throughout.

that is: when/if whatever is gonna happen, happens.
I believe "high-end" in Vancouver means $3M+ and point grey where the sky is the limit. It is the sales of these properties skewing the median and average and with a slowdown in transactions, the whole area gets skewed. A house that is just 21X of the average income ($900K) is nowhere near "high end" and I doubt much of those exist in Vancouver or GTA.
Mining & Workstation EPYC 7764 64 Core & Dual 5950x Rigs | ASUS STRIX RTX 3090 OC | 3X NEC PA301W | 64GB DDR4 ECC |5 TB Samsung NVMe Storage
Sr. Member
User avatar
Oct 19, 2014
792 posts
98 upvotes
Waterloo, ON
604nation wrote: LOL - BC would send you home without your panties.......please try!
how original, now please GTFO of this thread if you don't have anything to contribute & let the grown-up's talk. I'm done feeding the troll (blocked).
Deal Addict
Aug 31, 2014
1505 posts
564 upvotes
YVR, BC
LOL - just as I figured........wouldn't last a week.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
21844 posts
15620 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
divx wrote: looks more like a minor correction than a crash, although it is good news for alberta with more foreign money to stabilize their RE
Too early to tell if it's a correction or crash... most crashes start off looking like a correction except for crashes just keep on correcting while corrections stop after a short period of time.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Oct 26, 2003
39339 posts
6342 upvotes
Winnipeg
craftsman wrote:
divx wrote: looks more like a minor correction than a crash, although it is good news for alberta with more foreign money to stabilize their RE
Too early to tell if it's a correction or crash... most crashes start off looking like a correction except for crashes just keep on correcting while corrections stop after a short period of time.
sources tell me it's only 3% foreigner that's affected so the other 97% is perfectly fine.
Deal Guru
User avatar
Apr 9, 2006
10594 posts
15784 upvotes
GT-EH
divx wrote:
craftsman wrote:
divx wrote: looks more like a minor correction than a crash, although it is good news for alberta with more foreign money to stabilize their RE
Too early to tell if it's a correction or crash... most crashes start off looking like a correction except for crashes just keep on correcting while corrections stop after a short period of time.
sources tell me it's only 3% foreigner that's affected so the other 97% is perfectly fine.
Meanwhile... waiting for news that the Toronto market is affected by a mysterious 3% surge in demand. :lol:
Public Mobile Customer, $34/50GB CAN-US
"It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness; that is life." - Picard
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
21844 posts
15620 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
divx wrote:
craftsman wrote:
divx wrote: looks more like a minor correction than a crash, although it is good news for alberta with more foreign money to stabilize their RE
Too early to tell if it's a correction or crash... most crashes start off looking like a correction except for crashes just keep on correcting while corrections stop after a short period of time.
sources tell me it's only 3% foreigner that's affected so the other 97% is perfectly fine.
If that was the case, then there would not have been the large push to get deals done before the tax came into place even if each of those affected deals had other deals depending on them.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 14, 2007
3105 posts
1530 upvotes
craftsman wrote:
divx wrote:
craftsman wrote:

Too early to tell if it's a correction or crash... most crashes start off looking like a correction except for crashes just keep on correcting while corrections stop after a short period of time.
sources tell me it's only 3% foreigner that's affected so the other 97% is perfectly fine.
If that was the case, then there would not have been the large push to get deals done before the tax came into place even if each of those affected deals had other deals depending on them.
It's only logical that there would be a push to get things done before the tax came into effect. If the Arizone had done the same thing in 2010, Canucks would be doing the same to complete transactions before a new tax.

I think what we see will depend on what people THINK the prices are doing. If people THINK the prices are going down 20%, they'll wait until they actually do... or they'll bid 25% off. It the general sentiment is that prices were not affected at all ( again, this doesn't REALLY depend on what is actually happening with prices as much as you think ) then this will have little effect.

Remember, 95% of the market > 5% of the market. the 95%ers control the dialogue, ultimately. Either way, I don't want to be a seller right now... as there's a lot of uncertainty out there. If I NEED to sell, I'm going to price it to SELL. All of this will depend on how stubborn Vancouver property owners are... and how many are flippers. I'm guesssing if we DO see a correction, it will be modest yearly declines stretched over 4–5 years. If there's no correction, we'll see a big jump as confidence that there's nothing that the government can do to slow overinflation down. I'm hoping for the former, and I'm not even a renter.
I'd love to write history... in advance.
AMEX Biz Plat 75K AGAIN! | Plat 60K | Biz Gold 40K | Gold 25K | SPG 20K
Banned
Nov 27, 2006
2200 posts
445 upvotes
Toronto
Get-a-fix wrote: And another article with more of the same:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2887766/data- ... free-fall/

well the interesting thing about these markets is that the MEDIA propels it. Seeing as how we only have like a few major news sources in canada they could very well manipulate it with articles like this.

the media calls it "buy now or buy never"... people rush to buy
the media calls "housing is dead"... people rush to sell/hold of purchase

it's the same in every market.
stocks
tulips
houses
cars
boats
cottages
Deal Fanatic
Dec 28, 2007
5348 posts
4356 upvotes
The 20% is not real. You are saying the buyer who was gonna spend a mil on a house is going to pass on it because it is now $1 mil * 80% + 15% = $920k?

It is $80k cheaper than the original $1 mil.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 28, 2007
5348 posts
4356 upvotes
Number of sales decline doesn't mean much unless you are comparing the percentage of unsold properties.

People not putting house on market and builders halting new construction due to uncertainty also contribute to the sales number.
Jr. Member
Oct 1, 2006
143 posts
18 upvotes
toronto
in my area average home prices went up almost 10% in a month according to zolo (then again the houses are all worth about the same so there is no skewing of numbers). The only adjustment that is going on is that $20 million dollar homes will no longer go for $30 million dollars. I saw a few houses just sell in my area and they both went for over asking and were priced high.
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
2028 posts
1013 upvotes
Houston, TX
Get-a-fix wrote: One more, i think we're going to see more and more of these as time progresses:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/bri ... sf_globefb
The board’s new data show that in the last two weeks of July alone, sales were down 42 per cent over the previous year.
There is no yet GVR board data available, only numbers drawn by one specific realtor (Zolo) and referred as "board data" to make news
Make the face great again
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
21844 posts
15620 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
sirex wrote:
Get-a-fix wrote: And another article with more of the same:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2887766/data- ... free-fall/

well the interesting thing about these markets is that the MEDIA propels it. Seeing as how we only have like a few major news sources in canada they could very well manipulate it with articles like this.

the media calls it "buy now or buy never"... people rush to buy
the media calls "housing is dead"... people rush to sell/hold of purchase

it's the same in every market.
stocks
tulips
houses
cars
boats
cottages
The media is really just reporting what the 'experts' say. Typically, they will report whatever seems to sell their media...

The 'experts' are the ones that really propel markets as typically they have some skin in the game either by owning the commodity in question (be it stocks, bonds, tulips, houses...) or they are getting funds from various groups to 'study' it. Rarely do we see the media do any background checks on the 'experts' they report on.
Sr. Member
Feb 5, 2013
592 posts
109 upvotes
asa1973 wrote:
There is no yet GVR board data available, only numbers drawn by one specific realtor (Zolo) and referred as "board data" to make news
It is board data that Zolo is passing on against the board's wishes. It just isn't board analysis, which they produce after each month. But it is the same sales data.
Deal Addict
Jun 11, 2005
2823 posts
459 upvotes
Get-a-fix wrote:And another article with more of the same:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2887766/data- ... free-fall/
mr_raider wrote:
Get-a-fix wrote: And another article with more of the same:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2887766/data- ... free-fall/
At least the author has a name other than Tyler Durden
You may as well characterize Jill as a trash person - same as Tyler.
Deal Addict
Jun 11, 2005
2823 posts
459 upvotes
jmjoseph wrote: in my area average home prices went up almost 10% in a month according to zolo (then again the houses are all worth about the same so there is no skewing of numbers). The only adjustment that is going on is that $20 million dollar homes will no longer go for $30 million dollars. I saw a few houses just sell in my area and they both went for over asking and were priced high.
Are you in Kits or Pt Grey?
Deal Addict
Jun 11, 2005
2823 posts
459 upvotes
I believe that it is the relative number of condos and towns sold vs SFH that may be skewing the average price. SFH is beyond the reach of most locals and so it would make sense to see fewer sales.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 23, 2003
8455 posts
2000 upvotes
WL1980 wrote: The 20% is not real. You are saying the buyer who was gonna spend a mil on a house is going to pass on it because it is now $1 mil * 80% + 15% = $920k?

It is $80k cheaper than the original $1 mil.
Depends if they're buying to live or if its a flipper.

Flippers will not catch falling knives. Well, smart ones dont. Most either sold/bought before august 2, or are now waiting to see the market reaction. Its a temporary reaction.

Top

Thread Information

There is currently 1 user viewing this thread. (0 members and 1 guest)