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Locked: What did you buy? What might you buy??

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Deal Addict
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Aug 4, 2014
3963 posts
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Toronto, ON
jerryhung wrote: Poor New Flyer (NFI), -7%, new 52w low, after ER
now -13%, below $30, holy shiit
“Should’ve sold last week/month/year...” sigh
Newbie
Mar 3, 2011
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freilona wrote: “Should’ve sold last week/month/year...” sigh
added some this morning, catching ANOTHER falling knife, well, well.
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Sep 2, 2009
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Ottawa
Jojo_Madman wrote: I have been wondering when US giants such as Dollar General are going to expand into Canada if they haven't started already ... or simply acquire them ... that company is massive in comparison.
I do wonder if US companies will think twice (or thrice) before expanding here after the telecoms and Target tried.

DOL being acquired would definitely be a surprise but I am not sure it would be a bad thing for investors (unless they bought near the top or are really believing in the longterm expansion and growth) - of course the positiveness of such a purchase would be in the details (I would personally invest the money elsewhere after such a purchase).
Sr. Member
Dec 25, 2015
530 posts
329 upvotes
Canada
Looking to buy CHR (CHorus Aviation).

Air Canada just made an investment into them ImO huge vote of confidence and should remove AIMIA overhang
Member
Dec 22, 2008
370 posts
98 upvotes
Toronto
Jojo_Madman wrote: One of the issues that have been concerning me on buying/holding Dollarama, is that I don't see them having any real advantage over other dollar stores such as Dollar Tree's that I see more and more locations showing up ... which means more competitive competition and profit pressures going forward. As well, having travelled the US extensively, I have been wondering when US giants such as Dollar General are going to expand into Canada if they haven't started already ... or simply acquire them ... that company is massive in comparison.
DOL has 1192 stores in Canada whereas the next biggest, Dollar Tree has 220. DOL has added 200 stores in past three years whereas DT hasn't expanded.

Scotiabank Equity came out with a report this week stating

OUR TAKE: As investors consider investments for 2019, it is tempting to examine stocks that underperformed in 2018, with the view that there could be some recovery in 2019. One such laggard is the heretofore darling of the Canadian market DOL. 2018 proved to be an annus horribilis as DOL shares fell 38%, after delivering years of remarkable outperformance. Since its 2009 IPO, DOL – even considering the dismal 2018 – delivered an impressive return of 952%! Early January sees DOL shares recovering some of 2018's lost ground, up YTD ~6%. As a high-growth stock, DOL had been afforded a high multiple, and through 2018 as sales trends (SSS growth) were tempered, the high growth multiple too was tempered. While DOL began 2018 with a forward PE multiple of 31 times, it ended 2018 with a multiple of 17 times. A series of quarterly releases that reported slower-than-anticipated SSS growth and revised topline guidance drove the shares lower.

Rating Sector Outperform

1-Yr. Target C$40.00
DOL-T C$34.02

1-Yr. Return 18.1%
Div. (NTM) $0.17
Div. (Curr.) $0.15
Yield (Curr.) 0.5%
Valuation: 20x F2020E EPS
Deal Addict
Jan 28, 2007
2321 posts
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SW Ontario
Ramblings wrote: DOL has 1192 stores in Canada whereas the next biggest, Dollar Tree has 220. DOL has added 200 stores in past three years whereas DT hasn't expanded.

Scotiabank Equity came out with a report this week stating
Yes, I was aware of there respective location numbers ... Dollar General is over 15,000 in the USA ... but what I have noticed recently was malls or plaza's that had DOL at one time, now having DT instead

For me, too often than not, some of these analyst reports or statements seem to end up being more wishful thinking in the end, especially their price targets, so I take them with a grain of salt ... past performance is not a guarantee of future gains.
I'd rather be outdoors camping, kayaking, and mountain biking ...
Deal Addict
Jul 14, 2006
2733 posts
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wolfs004 wrote: Looking to buy CHR (CHorus Aviation).

Air Canada just made an investment into them ImO huge vote of confidence and should remove AIMIA overhang
I bought some today. With AC's confidence in CHR, I hope this will be a nice long-term hold with a solid dividend.
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Feb 26, 2017
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Bought about a 1/5 position of TSE:BRE in my unregistered account.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
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Vancouver, BC
wolfs004 wrote: Looking to buy CHR (CHorus Aviation).

Air Canada just made an investment into them ImO huge vote of confidence and should remove AIMIA overhang
Just be careful of possible volatility as dividend stocks may get some pressure as the higher flying growth stocks start moving again.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 7, 2004
6948 posts
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Bought a shit load on the dip and now kicking myself for not buying more.
Sr. Member
Dec 25, 2015
530 posts
329 upvotes
Canada
Make sure you DRIP on CHorus, they give you a 4% premium as well .. nice touch to dividend..

It’s a small cap and lacks liquidity .. doesn’t trade that much so can be volatile but believe good time to buy
Jr. Member
Dec 21, 2011
192 posts
37 upvotes
BURNABY
So that big crash hasn't happened yet..hmm.

Will wait a little longer though
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Sep 19, 2004
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this shows that Analysts are no better than us

So how did Bay Street’s top stock picks perform in 2018? Miserably - The Globe and Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investi ... s-in-2018/
It was a tough year for Canadian stocks in general, and an even tougher year for Bay Street’s top picks.

Not only did those equities with the very highest analyst ratings at the start of 2018 underperform the market, they were among the segments of the market to post the worst returns on the year.

While a global downturn in commodities was responsible for many busted top stock picks, the list of analyst darlings that flopped in 2018 spans almost every sector of the Canadian stock market.


How analyst stock picks turned out
The following chart divides S&P/TSX Composite stocks into quintiles, based on analysts’
recommendations for 2018, and shows each group’s average price return for the year.
Most
bullish
Least
bullish
0%
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
Avg. S&P/TSX
return: -13.2%
-16
-18
1st quintile
(most bullish)
2nd
3rd
4th
5th quintile
(least bullish)
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
Why might the highest-rated stocks be more vulnerable to the kind of broad market corrections seen in 2018?

One reason is a reluctance by equity research analysts to cast doubt on the market’s hottest stocks, said Brandon Osten, chief executive of Toronto-based Venator Capital Management.

“They're likely to be almost universally bullish at the top, when there's a lot of risk to the downside,” said Mr. Osten, a former sell-side analyst. “When a darling falls from grace, it's going to get absolutely crushed.”

There is no shortage of big Canadian stocks that posted big losses last year despite overwhelming analyst support.

The collapse of Canadian crude oil prices amid a shortage of pipeline space weighed heavily on nearly every energy stock in the S&P/TSX Composite Index. But going into the year, there was nothing but “buy” ratings for companies such as Torc Oil and Gas Ltd. and CES Energy Solutions Corp., which declined by 42 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively.

Other Canadian stocks with little to zero negative analyst coverage at the start of the year include Spin Master Corp., SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., Chorus Aviation Inc., Intertape Polymer Group Inc., Detour Gold Corp., Altus Group Ltd. and Boralex Inc. Each of those names fell by at least 20 per cent on the year.

As a group, the one-fifth of the S&P/TSX Composite Index with the most bullish analyst ratings fell by an average of 15.2 per cent in 2018. That’s considerably worse than the index itself, which declined by 11.6 per cent.

The only other cross-section of the market to perform worse than the highest-rated stocks, in fact, were the lowest-rated stocks, which declined by an average of 17 per cent.


More analysts foresaw trouble ahead for companies such as Laurentian Bank, BlackBerry Ltd., WestJet Airlines Ltd. and Hudson’s Bay Co., all of which posted 2018 share price losses of at least 30 per cent.

This suggests that equity analysts are more adept in identifying stocks to avoid rather than picking winners, if 2018 is any indication.

“Sell” recommendations are certainly a relative rarity on Bay Street – of the more than 3,000 individual ratings currently on stocks in the S&P/TSX Composite Index, only about 4 per cent of them are “sells.”

For analysts that go negative on a company they cover, there could be repercussions in terms of access to management, for example.

That makes bearish commentary on companies inherently worth paying attention to, said Dennis Mitchell, CEO of Starlight Investments Capital.

“When companies are rated a ‘sell,’ it's rare and usually courageous,” Mr. Mitchell said. But it is also typically an extrapolation of an existing trend, he added.

Mr. Mitchell cautioned against relying too heavily on “buy” and “sell” recommendations and price targets, rather than the substance of equity research reports.

“A little bit of knowledge can hurt you,” he said. Stock research can offer valuable insight into an industry or a company’s operations, which may or may not be reflected in the actual rating.

“An analyst might like a company that has been beaten up, from a valuation standpoint. But valuation by itself has never been a catalyst for companies to outperform,” Mr. Mitchell said.

Analysts have also been known to raise their outlook on a stock for no other reason than to catch up to recent performance.

“The stock moves up to their target price, they don’t want to downgrade, so they just increase their target price with absolutely no new information,” Mr. Osten said.

Downgrades, on the other hand, tend to have good reasons behind them, Mr. Osten said.

“When analysts maintain their downgrades, that’s a pretty important sign. Because you know they’re itching to upgrade it. Management is going to be talking to them about reversing their call.”
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Deal Addict
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Feb 24, 2014
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Bought 6300 shares of FTN.TO back in December at 3.94, its up at 8.23 now. I'm out at $9
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Apr 21, 2004
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jerryhung wrote: this shows that Analysts are no better than us

So how did Bay Street’s top stock picks perform in 2018? Miserably - The Globe and Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investi ... s-in-2018/
But that doesn't mean their firms followed the calls and didn't make money. No such thing as a Chinese wall anyway.
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Jan 16, 2011
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rsang39 wrote: Bought 6300 shares of FTN.TO back in December at 3.94, its up at 8.23 now. I'm out at $9
Ive got a 1000 under $4. Waiting for the divy to be reinstated and will exit at $11. Trailing stop loss is in place as I was unsure where the American banks were going to go this week.
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Sep 19, 2004
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only good news for NFI
NFI Group Inc. (NFI-T) said it intends to double the size of its existing normal course issuer bid for its common shares to 10 per cent from 5 per cent of the public float. “NFI believes that the shares are currently trading in a price range that does not fully reflect their value and that the acquisition of shares may represent an attractive and desirable use of its funds,” it stated in a release late Thursday.
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Deal Guru
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Sep 8, 2007
10978 posts
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Way Out of GTA
Europe up big this am. Deals are getting hard to find but still there.

I just wish the bear narrative left the investing window open for a bit longer after Xmas.

The pref ETFs (HPR/CPD) might still have some upside juice in them if the narrative isn’t “omg the market and interest rates are going to zero”. With the pref etfs being mostly rate resets, the worry in Q4 was they were going to reset at vastly lower rates. If the mindset even narrowly improves to “pause and resume” the prefs may see some love.

The masses because of their CNN addiction appears unaware of the violent and lengthy upward rally we’ve seen since Dec24 and are still asking “is this it, the big crash” as evidenced by the Apple canary in the coal mine thread a few weeks back. All the strategists and analysts vastly lowered 2019 expectations and set the bar low for the year ahead.

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