$17-18 is book value, which I think is a realistic price for CPG if WTI trades averages $65-70 this year. So, if WTI averages $68 next year, I would expect to hit the target within 12 months. If WTI just trades around current levels, 2 years is more realistic. If the strip is a good predictor of prices, then $18 is too high. $12-14 would be more realistic in that case. I will note that CPG is very volatile, so I could easily see it diving back below $10 again (maybe even more than once) if oil corrects downwards this year before moving up again.
At $60 WTI, despite half their oil being hedged at lower prices, they expect their dividend+capex to be fully covered next year, while they grow production by 7%. The actual price they would need to cover their dividend is around $58 WTI, if they were unhedged. If the CAD falls, this will also help them. At current prices ($63.55 WTI at time of writing), they would generate 4.5-5% of their market cap in earnings, giving a realistic forward P/E 20-22.5. By contrast, analysts, using much lower average oil prices for 2018, predict negative earnings for 2018 right now. Unless WTI drops $10-15 and stays down there, that's not very realistic, so these estimates are likely to be revised up over the course of the year, increasing the price of CPG with each revision.
If CPG rises above $14 this quarter, I might consider it overbought enough to sell, in hopes of buying it back on a correction, but, otherwise, I think it's very good value. E&P prices tend to lag rises in oil prices historically, so oil prices just staying where they are would be bullish for most oil stocks, and certainly for CPG. Obviously, in the scenario where oil rises to $80 (I don't think that's realistic, but Citi and other analysts are starting to talk about the possibility) CPG could trade well into the $20s, or maybe even hit $30 again.
As it's not exposed to the pipeline problems crushing Albertan production and produces light/medium oil, CPG is probably one of the best Canadian options for playing a bull run in E&Ps, which seems very likely this year. This is why I am happy to keep holding half of my position and will be adding at a lower cost basis if it plunges sub-$9 again (my current average cost is about $9.50).