Investing

What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • Apr 25th, 2018 6:05 pm
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Member
Feb 11, 2013
432 posts
21 upvotes
BC
Wavelet wrote:
Jan 11th, 2018 7:56 pm
$17-18 is book value, which I think is a realistic price for CPG if WTI trades averages $65-70 this year. So, if WTI averages $68 next year, I would expect to hit the target within 12 months. If WTI just trades around current levels, 2 years is more realistic. If the strip is a good predictor of prices, then $18 is too high. $12-14 would be more realistic in that case. I will note that CPG is very volatile, so I could easily see it diving back below $10 again (maybe even more than once) if oil corrects downwards this year before moving up again.

At $60 WTI, despite half their oil being hedged at lower prices, they expect their dividend+capex to be fully covered next year, while they grow production by 7%. The actual price they would need to cover their dividend is around $58 WTI, if they were unhedged. If the CAD falls, this will also help them. At current prices ($63.55 WTI at time of writing), they would generate 4.5-5% of their market cap in earnings, giving a realistic forward P/E 20-22.5. By contrast, analysts, using much lower average oil prices for 2018, predict negative earnings for 2018 right now. Unless WTI drops $10-15 and stays down there, that's not very realistic, so these estimates are likely to be revised up over the course of the year, increasing the price of CPG with each revision.

If CPG rises above $14 this quarter, I might consider it overbought enough to sell, in hopes of buying it back on a correction, but, otherwise, I think it's very good value. E&P prices tend to lag rises in oil prices historically, so oil prices just staying where they are would be bullish for most oil stocks, and certainly for CPG. Obviously, in the scenario where oil rises to $80 (I don't think that's realistic, but Citi and other analysts are starting to talk about the possibility) CPG could trade well into the $20s, or maybe even hit $30 again.

As it's not exposed to the pipeline problems crushing Albertan production and produces light/medium oil, CPG is probably one of the best Canadian options for playing a bull run in E&Ps, which seems very likely this year. This is why I am happy to keep holding half of my position and will be adding at a lower cost basis if it plunges sub-$9 again (my current average cost is about $9.50).
Thank you for your analysis - very helpful. Also, your average cost of $9.50 is an amazing place to be! Hopefully they can increase the dividend once things pick up!
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5081 posts
1552 upvotes
Thornhill
Watching Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc (NASDAQ:HMNY).

This will be my 'to the floor or the ceiling' position of this year.

Bought 1400 shares in Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc(NASDAQ:HMNY) @ $7.689 U

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Have no clue about the 'news' change from Facebook but I bought full position in Facebook Inc(NASDAQ:FB) @ $179.4999 U
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
1070 posts
491 upvotes
Jeenyus1 wrote:
Jan 12th, 2018 9:37 am
RBC increased its posted five-year fixed rate by 15 basis points to 5.14 per cent ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision next week.

https://www.bnn.ca/rbc-hikes-mortgage-r ... n-1.966188

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CAD currently at 0.799080USD and looks to have climbed up to where it was almost before NAFTA news.
Mtg rates are determined by the spread between what a bank can fund at vs loan at. The typical Cdn mtg is a 5 yr term, so the benchmark reference is the 5Y Cda bond yield. If that spread is too narrow, mtg rates go up. That's it in simple terms. RY may have ulterior reasons for raising their posted rate and in practice for a mortgage or funding book, it's more complicated, but good enough for this thread. 5Y Cda yield chart, https://invst.ly/6bsk2 No time to superimpose "posted mtg rates." I'll leave that to you.

Also see - http://forums.redflagdeals.com/5-year-f ... #p28556569
Deal Addict
Feb 4, 2015
3075 posts
620 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
FB on sale or look for better price/sale after earnings??
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5081 posts
1552 upvotes
Thornhill
Watching AFLAC Incorporated (NYSE:AFL).

Bought 100 shares of AFLAC Incorporated(NYSE:AFL) @ $86.34 U

Claims smell like BS.
Member
Jun 28, 2016
267 posts
139 upvotes
Bought Extendicare at 8.92. Looking to buy EMA and BCE if they drop a bit more (I want BCE below $58 and EMA below $45). A lot of interest rate sensitive stocks are starting to look interesting to me.
Sr. Member
Feb 26, 2017
531 posts
201 upvotes
It looks to me like the sell off of utilities is overdone (YTD FTS -5.7%, CU -3.3%, EMA -2.7%, AQN -6.5%).

I know these are bond proxies so raising rates make them less attractive vs bonds. I'm already overweight in the sector but I'm considering starting a position in FTS or buying more AQN. Am I underestimating the effect of raising rates on these companies?
Jr. Member
Nov 30, 2015
164 posts
30 upvotes
Toronto, ON
Jeenyus1 wrote:
Jan 12th, 2018 10:14 am
Watching AFLAC Incorporated (NYSE:AFL).

Bought 100 shares of AFLAC Incorporated(NYSE:AFL) @ $86.34 U

Claims smell like BS.
Assume this is a short term play? What do you think of the price for a long term hold?
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5081 posts
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Thornhill
socialmindset wrote:
Jan 12th, 2018 12:05 pm
Assume this is a short term play? What do you think of the price for a long term hold?
I have to wait a few days until technical event algo updates before I can start handicapping. For longterm technical event (more than 9months) the event was on May,31 2016 @ close price of $69.46 when the event was triggered- Long Term KST (bullish technical event)

Right now the support is at $83.94 based on 100 bar.

12 month target price from Research Report from S&P Global on Jan 6th was listed @ $87.00. As of close on Jan 5th stock price was $89.73 so they thought Aflac was slightly overvalued at the time.

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Don't take this point into considerationbut the article that broke the news was from The Intercept on January 11 2018, 4:02 p.m by David Dayen, He has a history of attacking establishments and is heavy on criticizing.

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/11/afl ... ssociates/

http://daviddayen.tumblr.com/

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I found the specific lawsuit docket- https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/cas ... _v_HUBBARD#

Basically. the co-counsel of those who filed the lawsuit against Aflac fed information to David Dayen to publish this article because on Thursday, January 04, 2018 JUDGMENT was entered dismissing this case. (glg)


Thursday, January 11, 2018
MOTION for Reconsideration re Notice of Deficiency, by ANIBAL ALCANTARA, MARTIN CONROY, DEBBIE CORT, TROY HUBBARD, MARCUS JOHNSON, JULIO LEATY, GARARD MCCARTHY filed by DIMITRY JOFFE.(JOFFE, DIMITRY)
Deal Addict
Jun 3, 2009
4026 posts
514 upvotes
Montreal
georvu wrote:
Jan 12th, 2018 9:58 am
FB on sale or look for better price/sale after earnings??
I added a bit today but won't hesitate to buy the post-ER dip if there was one.
Deal Addict
Feb 4, 2015
3075 posts
620 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
cn_habs wrote:
Jan 12th, 2018 1:13 pm
I added a bit today but won't hesitate to buy the post-ER dip if there was one.
Added to a calls previously bought as 1/2 price sale now!! :rolleyes:
Sr. Member
Feb 26, 2017
531 posts
201 upvotes
I'm interested in FB as well. I might actually buy it in my TFSA if TD picks up the phone to let me journal some shares...
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5081 posts
1552 upvotes
Thornhill
Can't believe gold has runup so high. Have to book the loss likely.

Sell on Stop entered @ $21.40 exp. end of day.

Filled @ $21.39 US

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