I basically agree with you. On the other hand, I basically held this view early last year and was dead wrong. I did okay last year, but holding 60-75% cash in HISAs all year is a big drag on returns (my portfolio only returned about 7%). Clearly, I still agree, as my investing strategy hasn't changed much, but I'm looking at that Trump tax break (probably largely priced in, but who knows in this market) and wondering whether this party might drag on for another year or even another 2 years. Certainly, while there are many warnings signs (crazy debt loads, financial bubbles, Fed unwinding, the silliest bond offerings the world has ever seen in Europe, narrowing yield spread) it's all just the same set of warning signs as last year (just worse, as the debt loads and bubbles have grown, while interest rates have crept up). There's really nothing to say the zany Gogo market of last year might not Gogo right to S&P 3500 (that's only another 25-30%, right?).dlhunter wrote: ↑Jan 12th, 2018 5:05 pmThis, of course, can continue for some time. But its not investing anymore. Gogo markets that take stair steps up and elevetor shaft down.
Im selling stocks Im long and that i dont anticipate a lot of upside. Closing all downside exposure too.
There are signs we could turn soon:
VIX futures ended up on a massive day
Yen rallied against dollar
Gold is up
Bonds finished strong and expecting more upside
Volume has been pathetic, mostly machines trading.
Yet, new funds inflow is some kind of record - typical chasing by retail investors in the ending bull market.
I guess we'll see what the future holds, but I've given up on trying to call a top. I just manage my portfolio in a way which will minimize draw down when it comes, and try to capture part of the upside in the meantime.