Investing

What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • Dec 14th, 2018 4:14 pm
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Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
1637 posts
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Tomorrow and beyond rides on Powell's shoulders. He is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the semi annual Monetary Policy Report. The text of his speech will be released at the same time. I think little happens before then.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm
Testimony--Chairman Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live: https://www.c-span.org/
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Watch Live: 10 a.m.
Before the House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.
Sr. Member
Feb 21, 2010
696 posts
155 upvotes
Scarborough
I think text will come out at 8.30
MrMom wrote:
Feb 26th, 2018 11:46 pm
Tomorrow and beyond rides on Powell's shoulders. He is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the semi annual Monetary Policy Report. The text of his speech will be released at the same time. I think little happens before then.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm
Testimony--Chairman Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live: https://www.c-span.org/
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Watch Live: 10 a.m.
Before the House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
1923 posts
316 upvotes
dlhunter wrote:
Feb 26th, 2018 11:07 pm
tomorrow's open could be shortable. Not a lot of new money entering the market, mostly short covering on low volume. But this can continue, just like it did in 2017.
Nasdaq pulling everything with it, it's within few points from ATH. If it double tops somehow (how? unlikely), SPX will go to test 2880 and beyond.

What's important, IMO, is this:
1. Nasdaq 100 is highly concentrated index. 4-5 companies are like 30%.
2. Nasdaq is VERY crowded as everyone piles on tech names. Look at AAPL, NFLX, AMZN, GOOG. If, for any reason, investors decide to book profits and go to the exit, there will be blood.
3. Large caps are leading still, with mid caps and small caps lagging badly. If this rally has legs, I will buy mid/small caps aggresively
And for this, I am in for some UVXY OTM calls.
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Nov 6, 2015
1251 posts
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Oakville
dlhunter wrote:
Feb 26th, 2018 11:07 pm
tomorrow's open could be shortable. Not a lot of new money entering the market, mostly short covering on low volume. But this can continue, just like it did in 2017.
Nasdaq pulling everything with it, it's within few points from ATH. If it double tops somehow (how? unlikely), SPX will go to test 2880 and beyond.

What's important, IMO, is this:
1. Nasdaq 100 is highly concentrated index. 4-5 companies are like 30%.
2. Nasdaq is VERY crowded as everyone piles on tech names. Look at AAPL, NFLX, AMZN, GOOG. If, for any reason, investors decide to book profits and go to the exit, there will be blood.
3. Large caps are leading still, with mid caps and small caps lagging badly. If this rally has legs, I will buy mid/small caps aggresively
Agree with all your points. RUT has been lagging on this move up. Took a small loss yesterday on my shorts and watching now.

Crazy market for sure! Look at NYMO; I don't think I've ever seen the market go from the most oversold in 2 years to the most overbought, in the SAME month.

Edit : Short ES 2780, taking another shot here
Images
  • nymo.PNG
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Oct 9, 2008
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Thornhill
Does anyone have a 'pre-recession' plan that they use?

As my investment mix is more heavily weighted in real estate with only a small slice in stocks, I can't average down heavily enough to justify holding stocks into cyclical economic recessions so I pull all my trading account liquidity out of the market completely for a few years as a precaution. I keep only my RRSP invested in equities at all times and I don't hold any bonds ever.

I will be pulling out completely from all existing long positions and moving the $USD into deposit accounts in roughly a year give or take.
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Apr 9, 2006
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GT-EH
Any implications on the crazy US debt that continues to grow?
  • The national debt has risen to over $20 trillion.
  • The US's debt-to-GDP ratio is over 100%.

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I just like to collect things! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Behold, true glory. #PCMasterRace!
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Oct 9, 2008
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GiOBoY wrote:
Feb 27th, 2018 9:45 am
Any implications on the crazy US debt that continues to grow?
  • The national debt has risen to over $20 trillion.
  • The US's debt-to-GDP ratio is over 100%.

Image
All part of 'inflation pie'.
Deal Addict
Feb 4, 2015
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Canada, Eh!!
So what would be best way to stay invested but get something as hedge/buffer against mkt going down, no ETNs.

Not something too complicated or sophisticated either.

SQQQ or similar for SP500 or Dow?

SPY puts?

Sell calls?
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Apr 9, 2006
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Jeenyus1 wrote:
Feb 27th, 2018 10:02 am
All part of 'inflation pie'.
So yes, increased gov't spending causes inflationary pressures ---> causes interest rates to go up ---> USD strengthens.

But doesn't that also cause greater hardship on the gov't to service that $20+ trillion debt (including households as well)?

This isn't going to end well -- Trump is going to bankrupt the country like he bankrupts his businesses. Face With Tears Of Joy
I just like to collect things! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Behold, true glory. #PCMasterRace!
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Oct 9, 2008
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GiOBoY wrote:
Feb 27th, 2018 10:13 am
So yes, increased gov't spending causes inflationary pressures ---> causes interest rates to go up ---> USD strengthens.

But doesn't that also cause greater hardship on the gov't to service that $20+ trillion debt (including households as well)?

This isn't going to end well -- Trump is going to bankrupt the country like he bankrupts his businesses. Face With Tears Of Joy
Credit cycles are cyclical by nature. What happened in this tail-end (by most people's observations, which of course could be wrong and could last another x amount of years) of the credit cycle is so many economic levers that could have been saved to push back up from contraction periods have been pulled forward. The last leg of a bull market is often the strongest though along with commodities.
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Jan 28, 2012
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georvu wrote:
Feb 27th, 2018 10:07 am
So what would be best way to stay invested but get something as hedge/buffer against mkt going down, no ETNs.

Not something too complicated or sophisticated either.

SQQQ or similar for SP500 or Dow?

SPY puts?

Sell calls?
Probably just buy long dated out of the money SPY puts or VXX calls.

Not really worth it right now with the VIX elevated though. The time to do something like that would have been like mid January where the market is at all time highs and the VIX is super low. If this rally continues and we go to new highs over the next couple months I'll be looking to hedge into the late spring and summer if the VIX is low enough.

A lot of times a fast V shaped correction like this is a bit of a "shot across the bow" that warns of things to come 6+months out. We've seen this huge rally after hitting the 200 day moving average and of course a bunch of us were sitting here waiting for it to retest the lows, but it's looking like that's not going to happen right this minute. Look at past major corrections and there's usually a few sharp V shaped tests of the 200 day average in the preceding 6-12 months (i.e look at what happened 2015/2016). A market like this doesn't peak like it did in January and then drop 20+ % all in one go. Even 2000 and 2008 bear markets where a gradual thing with many smaller corrections before the big drops happened

I'm now thinking we will see a continued moderate rally into the spring and summer that will slowly taper off and potentially setup a bigger correction later in the year.

The markets don't just drop again right when all of us are thinking to hedge or short unless something unexpected happens. The next drop will come when everyone starts to get complacent again and that takes a while.
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Nov 6, 2015
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Oakville
For those familiar with Dennis Gartman, you should be concerned if long Face With Tears Of Joy

DXBOqOeX4AAWTvB.jpg
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Oct 9, 2008
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Thornhill
Ahhh, machines liked Powell's response to inverted yield curve question from congress :)
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Nov 6, 2015
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Oakville
Jeenyus1 wrote:
Feb 27th, 2018 10:41 am
Ahhh, machines liked Powell's response to inverted yield curve question from congress :)
Dollar and bonds at HOD, pressure is down on equities
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Oct 9, 2008
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Thornhill
arvind84 wrote:
Feb 27th, 2018 10:45 am
Dollar and bonds at HOD, pressure is down on equities
Gold also taking a further hit Smiling Face With Open Mouth

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