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What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • Oct 13th, 2019 8:20 pm
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Deal Addict
May 18, 2015
1312 posts
371 upvotes
Ottawa,Ont
alanbrenton wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 1:51 pm
Any potential 1-2x bagger blue chip (or close enough) over a three-year holding period?
I imagine ATD.b might be if youre able to get it at 55$ again
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Apr 21, 2004
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nikels21 wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 2:09 pm
I imagine ATD.b might be if youre able to get it at 55$ again
So $110 a shoe-in over three years?

Do you think they will buy Husky's convenience store business?
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Aug 4, 2014
1810 posts
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nikels21 wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 2:09 pm
I imagine ATD.b might be if youre able to get it at 55$ again
Really? Trying to sell if for $72 (for a 20% profit in 2 years! Bought just under $60 back then..)
Deal Addict
May 18, 2015
1312 posts
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Ottawa,Ont
alanbrenton wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 2:11 pm
So $110 a shoe-in over three years?

Do you think they will buy Husky's convenience store business?
If I had to bet on one itd be ATD.B. They prove time after time that they can create good value in acquisitions through synergies. They are also expanding globally and not just in NA
Deal Addict
Jan 28, 2007
2123 posts
1441 upvotes
SW Ontario
alanbrenton wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 2:11 pm
So $110 a shoe-in over three years?

Do you think they will buy Husky's convenience store business?
I see the growing electric car market being a big market disruptor for typical gas convenience stores in the near future ... and a threat to Couche-Tard ability to continue to generate grow/profits at the same rate.
I'd rather be outdoors camping, kayaking, and mountain biking ...
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Apr 21, 2004
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Jojo_Madman wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 2:58 pm
I see the growing electric car market being a big market disruptor for typical gas convenience stores in the near future ... and a threat to Couche-Tard ability to continue to generate grow/profits at the same rate.
true. when I get a BEV, I will almost always charge at home and not bother with charging stations
Deal Addict
Feb 26, 2017
1120 posts
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alanbrenton wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 1:51 pm
Any potential 1-2x bagger blue chip (or close enough) over a three-year holding period?
I could see CVS and CAH doubling in the next 3 years. Both are trading for single digit PEs much lower than their normal valuation which is around 15. CVS needs to have the Athena merger close (currently delayed due to the shut down) and then they need to lower their debt. CAH needs to lower their debt and improve their supply chain for medical devices.

For full disclosure I've owned both for around two years and I'm down quite a bit.
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Jan 21, 2014
4133 posts
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ottofly wrote:
Dec 21st, 2018 12:21 pm
They sure can get close to zero. It's amazing how many people on RFD have not a clue how these work. In a nutshell, these only work in bull markets. In a bear market you are essentially rolling the dice. Now that the div has been cut, there is no floor here and the NAV premium this trades at will turn into a NAV discount and could drop another 30-40% from here. This usually doesn't recover unless the market as a whole recovers and the anticipation of div starts to get factored. Most also don't know that the div on the common comes from income writing covered calls and capital gains, so a bull market is imperative. The divs from the underlying portfolio goes to the preferreds. These are enormously profitable for the managers that sell them. And yes, their are a few examples of near zero, FTS and WFS. Some others are already off the board, long gone.

EDIT. Also, they can get called. They have redemption dates where the manager can redeem them. If NAV is $1.00 after all fees and expenses paid and you paid $4.50, you're getting $1.00.
Did anyone notice FTN bounces back in the last few days? I was about to buy more when it was below $4 to average out my cost, but reading the above post scared me off, though I did buy some DFN instead, which also bounced back since the low
Deal Addict
Jan 28, 2007
2123 posts
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SW Ontario
mkl38s wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 3:24 pm
Did anyone notice FTN bounces back in the last few days? I was about to buy more when it was below $4 to average out my cost, but reading the above post scared me off, though I did buy some DFN instead, which also bounced back since the low
Yup ... the silence is amazing
I'd rather be outdoors camping, kayaking, and mountain biking ...
Temp. Banned
Jun 18, 2008
5095 posts
4589 upvotes
Montreal
mkl38s wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 3:24 pm

Did anyone notice FTN bounces back in the last few days? I was about to buy more when it was below $4 to average out my cost, but reading the above post scared me off, though I did buy some DFN instead, which also bounced back since the low
Jojo_Madman wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 3:28 pm
Yup ... the silence is amazing
Reality is nothing has changed, I didn't offer any predictions on markets, it was a response to a question about split corps, post is accurate and I stand by it. Perhaps you need to read it again. There are a lot of rookies here and split corps are much more complicated than a basic stock. Just trying to help people make informed decisions.

FTN follows the direction of the underlying portfolio and is a leveraged play on that portfolio. It's great when it goes up. Banks have had a big rally, bank split corps follow in anticipation of the rising NAV and the possible dividend reinstatement. Always remember the preferred part of the split keeps it's value and are entitled to first dibs on the dividend and first dibs on capital of the portfolio if the corp is terminated. Whatever is left goes to holder of the common and it can be near zero, has happened many times already. A smart investor buys the preferred cause they give high steady yields and are pretty much guaranteed not to lose, the rookies (or gamblers) buys the common. The fees also come from the capital side of the portfolio and they are quite outrageous hence why these closed end funds exist. Look through the history, every single market correction, big or small, has resulted in the common dropping 30-50% within days, the prefs drop 5-8% and recover quickly. My observation, the guy who buys the preferreds has read the prospectus the guy who buys the common didn't. Always do your own due diligence and make sure you understand the positives and negatives of leveraged instruments.
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Jan 16, 2011
3301 posts
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The NORTH
ottofly wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 4:41 pm
Reality is nothing has changed, I didn't offer any predictions on markets, it was a response to a question about split corps, post is accurate and I stand by it. Perhaps you need to read it again. There are a lot of rookies here and split corps are much more complicated than a basic stock. Just trying to help people make informed decisions.

FTN follows the direction of the underlying portfolio and is a leveraged play on that portfolio. It's great when it goes up. Banks have had a big rally, bank split corps follow in anticipation of the rising NAV and the possible dividend reinstatement. Always remember the preferred part of the split keeps it's value and are entitled to first dibs on the dividend and first dibs on capital of the portfolio if the corp is terminated. Whatever is left goes to holder of the common and it can be near zero, has happened many times already. A smart investor buys the preferred cause they give high steady yields and are pretty much guaranteed not to lose, the rookies (or gamblers) buys the common. The fees also come from the capital side of the portfolio and they are quite outrageous hence why these closed end funds exist. Look through the history, every single market correction, big or small, has resulted in the common dropping 30-50% within days, the prefs drop 5-8% and recover quickly. My observation, the guy who buys the preferreds has read the prospectus the guy who buys the common didn't. Always do your own due diligence and make sure you understand the positives and negatives of leveraged instruments.
Dude, you sound defensive. Don't be. You were sharing knowledge and if a post is all it took to scare off an investor thats no skin off your nose. I love FTN, have played it once before for nice, big gains and got back in under $4 this month. While I agree that the underlying product is rocky, there is no way a bank is going under in this political climate north or south of the boarder. This is one I don't buy for the dividend, I buy for the bounce.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
11297 posts
4606 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
alanbrenton wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 2:11 pm
So $110 a shoe-in over three years?

Do you think they will buy Husky's convenience store business?
I wouldn't bet that ATD.b would buy the whole lot. Husky may be looking to unload the lot (with the refinery in Prince George). ATD has not shown in the past they have been willing to venture out of the core expertise (ie running gas bars and convenience stores). A better bet would be Parkland Fuel as they are in a similar business as ATD.b but they have recently expanded into the refinery business by buying out Chevron's retail operations in Western Canada (including a refinery in Burnaby) and just completed upgrading the refinery. As such, Parkland has the expertise in house to operate a refinery and they could leverage that with the Prince George operation.

Having said the above, if Parkland does buy Husky's retail operation, I can see them maybe selling a number of the gas bars to another operator especially those who might be in the same market to help the deal get done.
Newbie
Nov 17, 2016
78 posts
33 upvotes
All my dividend stocks have returned to their October 2018 levels with the exception of banks.

EIC
PZA
REITs
MFC

Only my bank stocks are down, especially TD. Planning on adding a little if it doesn't go up by the time GICs mature.
Member
Jun 28, 2018
403 posts
223 upvotes
Toronto
Jojo_Madman wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 2:58 pm
I see the growing electric car market being a big market disruptor for typical gas convenience stores in the near future ... and a threat to Couche-Tard ability to continue to generate grow/profits at the same rate.
They are studying these things. Place chargers at the gas stations. How long does it take to charge an EV? A few minutes for gas, but EV could be much longer. Maybe even an hour to charge whilst one is on the road... where are they going to stop? At your already strategically placed gas/electric charging station munching on high margin snacks and looking for entertainment like "free" data gathering/ad filled wifi while you wait for full charge.

Just googled this ATD has been researching this and looking at Norway. Here's a CBC article:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal ... -1.4217002

Note: I do not own ATD.B. Only exposure to "gas stations" is via HSE.
The Distracted Investor

Dividends through quality companies 😃 Though I usually lose money with trades :facepalm:

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