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What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • Oct 23rd, 2019 4:10 pm
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Jan 16, 2011
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craftsman wrote:
Feb 11th, 2019 6:07 pm
No-one is going to beat up on SNC too much as all of the parties want the Quebec vote.
Respectfully disagree. The lib's have the quebec vote regardless of SNC, the orange crush is dead and scheere can't break into quebec so if the rest of Canada gets upidy over SNC I can see the libs scapegoating them.
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Aug 14, 2010
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jdu0ng wrote:
Feb 11th, 2019 12:44 pm
nice, how big is your tfsa now?
Just shy of $100,000
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emanon86 wrote:
Feb 11th, 2019 10:56 pm
Just shy of $100,000
Are you still holding some of the PBH?
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Jan 27, 2006
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kr0zet wrote:
Feb 11th, 2019 10:11 pm
Respectfully disagree. The lib's have the quebec vote regardless of SNC, the orange crush is dead and scheere can't break into quebec so if the rest of Canada gets upidy over SNC I can see the libs scapegoating them.
Just because the Conservatives are having trouble with Quebec doesn't mean that they won't pander to Quebec for this election. The Conservatives know that they need to have a breakthrough in Quebec to have anything more than a minority government - and by breakthrough, I don't mean they need to win a majority of seats... they just need to win enough so that they have a reasonable presence in Quebec. They are already trying to put in 'star' local candidates in key ridings in order to see if they can create that presence. If they push the SNC issue, they would have failed even before the campaigning started. Why do you think that the Conservatives have basically been fairly soft on the issue when they could have pushed it and pushed it hard?
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Interesting. When the VIX was roaring higher and many on here were “might go much much lower” was signaling a great buying opportunity. As I see it the VIX remains an excellent contrary indicator.

It’s also helpful that the mainstream media were spreading tales of disaster and panic. Drove a lot of quality companies down nicely and I thank them for the help.

Current state of the VIX is suggesting that most of that fear has receded from the market again, maybe a bit of residual left.
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cartfan123 wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 7:11 am
Interesting. When the VIX was roaring higher and many on here were “might go much much lower” was signaling a great buying opportunity. As I see it the VIX remains an excellent contrary indicator.

It’s also helpful that the mainstream media were spreading tales of disaster and panic. Drove a lot of quality companies down nicely and I thank them for the help.

Current state of the VIX is suggesting that most of that fear has receded from the market again, maybe a bit of residual left.
Agree, I look at it as a "when to buy" index myself ... the higher it goes the better the deals.
I'd rather be outdoors camping, kayaking, and mountain biking ...
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Feb 22, 2011
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What do you guys think about SNC? It's down 50% with a market cap less than one times revenue and a dividend yield above 3%
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mazerbeaner wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 8:58 am
What do you guys think about SNC? It's down 50% with a market cap less than one times revenue and a dividend yield above 3%
IMHO the party is just beginning ... pull up a chair and some popcorn
I'd rather be outdoors camping, kayaking, and mountain biking ...
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Dec 25, 2015
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Bought more JWEL-T . Cheap shares / great business
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mazerbeaner wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 8:58 am
What do you guys think about SNC? It's down 50% with a market cap less than one times revenue and a dividend yield above 3%
Sorry, this isn't a small answer but its a complex question... SNC is in the beginning stages of a trial for corruption; which they have all but admitted to but said those responsible are no longer there. SNC has asked for a DPA, basically a get out of jail free card where they admit that something happened, pay a hefty fine and allow a government agent to oversee ethics operations inside the company. The DPA is something unknown to Canada but put into the last liberal Omnibus budget; perhaps even snuck in as it was on one of the last pages of the 500+ page bill and there were many, including liberals that said it should not be there as it was a Justice Department item and not a budget item. Government said NO, it stays and passed is; some have called it the SNC Clause. Previous Justice Minister said NO to a DPA for SNC but then she lost her job as Justice Minister and was moved out of justice, now SNC is appealed the decisions. So who cares about the DPA? Well if SNC looses the corruption case they are barred from bidding on government contracts for 10 years. The fact they are begging for a DPA shows just where they think the case is gonna go. The bigger problem is that SNC admitted to illegal campaign contributions of over $100,000 to the Liberal government in the past and the Globe & Mail published an article that SNC is trying to call in that favor with the DPA.

Personally I wouldn't touch it till this is sorted out. I'm of the mind that there is a hyper sensitivity to 'Corruption' due to what is going on south of the border and Canadians have no appetite for it. SNC's DPA could become an election issue as a sign of liberal corruption if the lib's give them the DPA. Where as not giving them the DPA and letting the courts decide shows that the wheels were not greased and lets the libs save face. The ndp and cons have nothing to loose from keeping quiet and everything to gain by pushing the issue as a election issue (Corrupt libs).

People here seem to be confused that the cons and ndp going after corruption of the libs is not attacking SNC, its attacking the DPA and the perceived greased wheels. SNC not getting a DPA just gives them their day in court sometime down the road. The cons and npd get a political win now with no blowback as there is no damage to SNC now and get to kick the SCN court case down the road for a future debate if they are found guilty.

Should You Invest? Well without the DPA SNC will be found guilty of corruption and will be barred from bidding on government contracts for 10 years. If SNC thought they had any chance in court they would not be asking for a DPA as the fines levyed by a DPA can be in the billions. Under this scenario there is no recovery for the stock but a lot more pain (unless the government at that time changes the rules for SNC)... With a DPA its business as 'usual' for SNC. They pay a huge fine and can continue to bid on contracts. Stock will recover and everything is rosy... So the question is "Does SNC get their DPA or not." Others may disagree but I don't see how after this spot light has been put on the situation in an election year do the liberals give them a DPA. BUT if they get it I'm dumping 50% of my everything I have into SNC!
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kr0zet wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 12:39 pm
Sorry, this isn't a small answer but its a complex question... SNC is in the beginning stages of a trial for corruption; which they have all but admitted to but said those responsible are no longer there. SNC has asked for a DPA, basically a get out of jail free card where they admit that something happened, pay a hefty fine and allow a government agent to oversee ethics operations inside the company. The DPA is something unknown to Canada but put into the last liberal Omnibus budget; perhaps even snuck in as it was on one of the last pages of the 500+ page bill and there were many, including liberals that said it should not be there as it was a Justice Department item and not a budget item. Government said NO, it stays and passed is; some have called it the SNC Clause. Previous Justice Minister said NO to a DPA for SNC but then she lost her job as Justice Minister and was moved out of justice, now SNC is appealed the decisions. So who cares about the DPA? Well if SNC looses the corruption case they are barred from bidding on government contracts for 10 years. The fact they are begging for a DPA shows just where they think the case is gonna go. The bigger problem is that SNC admitted to illegal campaign contributions of over $100,000 to the Liberal government in the past and the Globe & Mail published an article that SNC is trying to call in that favor with the DPA.

Personally I wouldn't touch it till this is sorted out. I'm of the mind that there is a hyper sensitivity to 'Corruption' due to what is going on south of the border and Canadians have no appetite for it. SNC's DPA could become an election issue as a sign of liberal corruption if the lib's give them the DPA. Where as not giving them the DPA and letting the courts decide shows that the wheels were not greased and lets the libs save face. The ndp and cons have nothing to loose from keeping quiet and everything to gain by pushing the issue as a election issue (Corrupt libs).

People here seem to be confused that the cons and ndp going after corruption of the libs is not attacking SNC, its attacking the DPA and the perceived greased wheels. SNC not getting a DPA just gives them their day in court sometime down the road. The cons and npd get a political win now with no blowback as there is no damage to SNC now and get to kick the SCN court case down the road for a future debate if they are found guilty.

Should You Invest? Well without the DPA SNC will be found guilty of corruption and will be barred from bidding on government contracts for 10 years. If SNC thought they had any chance in court they would not be asking for a DPA as the fines levyed by a DPA can be in the billions. Under this scenario there is no recovery for the stock but a lot more pain (unless the government at that time changes the rules for SNC)... With a DPA its business as 'usual' for SNC. They pay a huge fine and can continue to bid on contracts. Stock will recover and everything is rosy... So the question is "Does SNC get their DPA or not." Others may disagree but I don't see how after this spot light has been put on the situation in an election year do the liberals give them a DPA. BUT if they get it I'm dumping 50% of my everything I have into SNC!
Thanks for the thorough reply. But how much are those contracts as a percent of their revenue? I just find it hard to imagine the government lets their biggest engineering firm go under. Even if it's politically untenable they will protect their industry. As for trying to time it you might risk it jumping up before you can act. It wouldn't be a sure thing or a safe investment but I think there is a lot of potential upside if they resolve this issue.
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I'm looking to create a watchlist of tech firms that trade on the TSE that pay a dividend.

Short list so far:
CSU
ENGH
SYZ

Anyone have any other suggestions they like?
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mazerbeaner wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 12:53 pm
Thanks for the thorough reply. But how much are those contracts as a percent of their revenue? I just find it hard to imagine the government lets their biggest engineering firm go under. Even if it's politically untenable they will protect their industry. As for trying to time it you might risk it jumping up before you can act. It wouldn't be a sure thing or a safe investment but I think there is a lot of potential upside if they resolve this issue.
I agree that SNC is too Quebec to Fail and the government at that time will have to find a way to make it work but that could be years and years down the road. Until then there really isn't a road to recovery for SNC without the DPA. They have a snowballs chance in Hawaii of winning the court case so politically its kicking the can down the road. Again, as for the DPA politicians usually have a pretty short vision, say the next election.

Do I believe that SNC is bailed out when the time comes? As sure as GM, Bombardier and any Canadian bank would be. So I suppose its really more to do with what your time frame is.

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