Investing

What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • Aug 16th, 2017 4:12 pm
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Deal Fanatic
Jun 26, 2011
9712 posts
752 upvotes
llpresident wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:43 pm
Lots of red, nobody else buying or selling?
Like Wavelet, I also nibbled on IPL

I also bought GUD (Knight Therapeutics) just now. Been following them since inception and held shares at one point I think. This is a long term buy that I'll have to sit on for years.

With VIX getting worse near the close it appears this could just be the beginning. Just chipping away right now as real panic hasn't set in.
Last edited by RolandCouch on Aug 10th, 2017 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sr. Member
Dec 3, 2014
845 posts
135 upvotes
spongewen wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:48 pm
Rather than pipelines, nothing else looks cheap, we have been in bull for too long
Are you buying pipelines? ENB, IPL, TRP?
Sr. Member
Dec 3, 2014
845 posts
135 upvotes
RolandCouch wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:56 pm
Like Wavelet, I also nibbled on IPL

I also bought GUD (Knight Therapeutics) just now. Been following them since inception and held shares at one point I think. This is a long term buy that I'll have to sit on for years.
Sell me on IPL. I don't know much about it.
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3036 posts
485 upvotes
neutralized delta in SNAP by selling Aug 15 calls
shorted NVDA Sep +170/-165/-145 puts for 50c credit. No upside risk, break even at 140 (former support)
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3036 posts
485 upvotes
and down goes SNAP
sub 12 now. my break even @12.5. oh well, a bit of work ahead

NVDA UNCH. great, let's see what 2morro brings.
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Sr. Member
Oct 21, 2014
575 posts
334 upvotes
Burlington, ON
llpresident wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:43 pm
Lots of red, nobody else buying or selling?
I ended up adding to NYSE:SNA (Snap-On) at $152.30. I was expecting a greater amount of panic selling, but still; good day to add.
Deal Addict
Apr 25, 2006
3919 posts
192 upvotes
IPL results are out and look decent
"If you make a mistake but then change your ways, it is like never having made a mistake at all" - Confucius
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
19797 posts
2932 upvotes
Waterloo
1xTiMeR wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 5:11 pm
IPL results are out and look decent
Good ER don't mean much anymore this ER season :(

NVDA is -5% on good ER, raised guidance, and...... WTF.

Sick of tech ER beat and drops -> MU, WDC, GOOG, NVDA, AMD, SHOP, that are like -10~-20% off highs, oh well, I'm adding on the drop
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Deal Addict
Jun 3, 2009
3546 posts
406 upvotes
Montreal
I bought more CELG and OZRK but I hope both immature spoiled brats in power will end this D mesuring contest soon.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 26, 2011
9712 posts
752 upvotes
1xTiMeR wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 5:11 pm
IPL results are out and look decent
I wasn't impressed after a quick glance...
Deal Addict
Nov 9, 2013
1729 posts
529 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
llpresident wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:57 pm
Are you buying pipelines? ENB, IPL, TRP?
I think ENF looks pretty attractive too.
Jr. Member
Jun 28, 2016
177 posts
58 upvotes
llpresident wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:58 pm
Sell me on IPL. I don't know much about it.
IPL is pretty easy to understand. It's business has four segments.

- Oil Sands pipelines in Alberta with flows guaranteed on long-term contracts with Suncor, Husky, CNQ and Imperial Oil (55% of FFO)
- Conventional Oil Pipelines (20% of FFO)
- NGL processing (15% of FFO)
- Bulk liquid storage in Europe (10% of FFO)

Naturally, this is not quite the percentage in every quarter (in particular, NGL was down last quarter due to one of its facilities being offline for 30 days due to scheduled maintenance) but is roughly correct. They're also planning on diversifying further, but those projects are not yet contributing to FFO.

The main uncertainties of the business are the future of Alberta's oil sands and the future of NGLs. The latter seems promising, but that promise has not yet been fully realized, while many doubt the future of the oil sands. If the oil sands substantially decline in production, IPL can survive, but will suffer and there will probably be dividend cuts. However, in my view, this is rather unlikely. More likely, as the projected oil sands production growth story plays out slowly over the next decade, I expect IPL to use more of their existing pipeline capacity, as they currently only use about 55% of it. So, it has growth prospects elsewhere, but even if they all came to naught, so long as Suncor, CNQ, Imperial Oil and Husky keep expanding their oil sands operations, it can substantially increase its FFO without even building anything new.

However, even if the NGL and oil sands growth stories come to nothing, IPL offers a safe and likely to grow 6.7% yield with a payout ratio of only 73%.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
3913 posts
801 upvotes
Thornhill
Wavelet wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 5:59 pm
IPL is pretty easy to understand. It's business has four segments.

- Oil Sands pipelines in Alberta with flows guaranteed on long-term contracts with Suncor, Husky, CNQ and Imperial Oil (55% of FFO)
- Conventional Oil Pipelines (20% of FFO)
- NGL processing (15% of FFO)
- Bulk liquid storage in Europe (10% of FFO)

Naturally, this is not quite the percentage in every quarter (in particular, NGL was down last quarter due to one of its facilities being offline for 30 days due to scheduled maintenance) but is roughly correct. They're also planning on diversifying further, but those projects are not yet contributing to FFO.

The main uncertainties of the business are the future of Alberta's oil sands and the future of NGLs. The latter seems promising, but that promise has not yet been fully realized, while many doubt the future of the oil sands. If the oil sands substantially decline in production, IPL can survive, but will suffer and there will probably be dividend cuts. However, in my view, this is rather unlikely. More likely, as the projected oil sands production growth story plays out slowly over the next decade, I expect IPL to use more of their existing pipeline capacity, as they currently only use about 55% of it. So, it has growth prospects elsewhere, but even if they all came to naught, so long as Suncor, CNQ, Imperial Oil and Husky keep expanding their oil sands operations, it can substantially increase its FFO without even building anything new.

However, even if the NGL and oil sands growth stories come to nothing, IPL offers a safe and likely to grow 6.7% yield with a payout ratio of only 73%.
Aren't you afraid of Canadian NG exports being mostly and or completely unable to secure contracts to Asia vs. United States ie: Cheniere? Petronas recently scrapping the proposed $36B in Alberta seemed like a clear sign of caution to Canadian NG in terms of growth prospects to me. https://ca.reuters.com/article/business ... A2C8-OCABS

Just yesterday the United States actually became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time in 60 years -https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-of ... first-time

There's also a LOT of projects going on in the U.S that will likely further reduce Canada's exports into the U.S when fully online ie: Rover pipeline as a double whammy. I'd seriously take a look at U.S NG players such as Cheniere Energy, Inc.(NYSEMKT:LNG) instead of Canadian NG plays. I started a long-term position this year in Cheniere and ETP for this very reason. If and when Chenier secures more exports with key Asian contracts; domestic NG prices will eventually take off to the upside and foreign investments will likely be looking to the U.S for partnerships, not Canada unfortunately imho. Alberta is just not a friendly place for energy like the U.S is, add the ludicrous carbon tax in as well...
Jr. Member
Jun 28, 2016
177 posts
58 upvotes
Jeenyus1 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 6:25 pm
Aren't you afraid of Canadian NG exports being mostly and or completely unable to secure contracts to Asia vs. United States ie: Cheniere? Petronas recently scrapping the proposed $36B in Alberta seemed like a clear sign of caution to Canadian NG in terms of growth prospects to me. https://ca.reuters.com/article/business ... A2C8-OCABS

Just yesterday the United States actually became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time in 60 years -https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-of ... first-time

There's also a LOT of projects going on in the U.S that will likely further reduce Canada's exports into the U.S when fully online ie: Rover pipeline as a double whammy. I'd seriously take a look at U.S NG players such as Cheniere Energy, Inc.(NYSEMKT:LNG) instead of Canadian NG plays. I started a long-term position this year in Cheniere and ETP for this very reason. If and when Chenier secures more exports with key Asian contracts; domestic NG prices will eventually take off to the upside and foreign investments will likely be looking to the U.S for partnerships, not Canada unfortunately imho. Alberta is just not a friendly place for energy like the U.S is, add the ludicrous carbon tax in as well...
That's why I'm not that excited about the NGL business. Note that I didn't say much about it beyond the fact that some people see it as an opportunity. I see the big opportunity as oil sands production rising, if CAPP is even close to on target in their Canadian production estimates through 2030. Even if they're not, the dividend would still be safe and give an acceptable return on its own.

Hopefully, Canada will eventually start playing catch up on NGLs, but even if it doesn't, I don't expect this part of their business to get any worse, as prices in North America are probably on the way up, not down. In summary, I don't consider this a play on NGLs. I consider it a play on Canadian oil production.

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