Investing

What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • May 20th, 2018 12:03 pm
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Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3728 posts
757 upvotes
neutralized delta in SNAP by selling Aug 15 calls
shorted NVDA Sep +170/-165/-145 puts for 50c credit. No upside risk, break even at 140 (former support)
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3728 posts
757 upvotes
and down goes SNAP
sub 12 now. my break even @12.5. oh well, a bit of work ahead

NVDA UNCH. great, let's see what 2morro brings.
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Sr. Member
Oct 21, 2014
845 posts
623 upvotes
Burlington, ON
llpresident wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:43 pm
Lots of red, nobody else buying or selling?
I ended up adding to NYSE:SNA (Snap-On) at $152.30. I was expecting a greater amount of panic selling, but still; good day to add.
Deal Addict
Apr 25, 2006
4203 posts
265 upvotes
IPL results are out and look decent
"If you make a mistake but then change your ways, it is like never having made a mistake at all" - Confucius
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
21349 posts
3609 upvotes
Waterloo
1xTiMeR wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 5:11 pm
IPL results are out and look decent
Good ER don't mean much anymore this ER season :(

NVDA is -5% on good ER, raised guidance, and...... WTF.

Sick of tech ER beat and drops -> MU, WDC, GOOG, NVDA, AMD, SHOP, that are like -10~-20% off highs, oh well, I'm adding on the drop
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Deal Addict
Jun 3, 2009
4057 posts
517 upvotes
Montreal
I bought more CELG and OZRK but I hope both immature spoiled brats in power will end this D mesuring contest soon.
Deal Guru
Jun 26, 2011
10542 posts
1167 upvotes
Markham
1xTiMeR wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 5:11 pm
IPL results are out and look decent
I wasn't impressed after a quick glance...
Deal Addict
Nov 9, 2013
2108 posts
839 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
llpresident wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:57 pm
Are you buying pipelines? ENB, IPL, TRP?
I think ENF looks pretty attractive too.
Member
Jun 28, 2016
267 posts
139 upvotes
llpresident wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:58 pm
Sell me on IPL. I don't know much about it.
IPL is pretty easy to understand. It's business has four segments.

- Oil Sands pipelines in Alberta with flows guaranteed on long-term contracts with Suncor, Husky, CNQ and Imperial Oil (55% of FFO)
- Conventional Oil Pipelines (20% of FFO)
- NGL processing (15% of FFO)
- Bulk liquid storage in Europe (10% of FFO)

Naturally, this is not quite the percentage in every quarter (in particular, NGL was down last quarter due to one of its facilities being offline for 30 days due to scheduled maintenance) but is roughly correct. They're also planning on diversifying further, but those projects are not yet contributing to FFO.

The main uncertainties of the business are the future of Alberta's oil sands and the future of NGLs. The latter seems promising, but that promise has not yet been fully realized, while many doubt the future of the oil sands. If the oil sands substantially decline in production, IPL can survive, but will suffer and there will probably be dividend cuts. However, in my view, this is rather unlikely. More likely, as the projected oil sands production growth story plays out slowly over the next decade, I expect IPL to use more of their existing pipeline capacity, as they currently only use about 55% of it. So, it has growth prospects elsewhere, but even if they all came to naught, so long as Suncor, CNQ, Imperial Oil and Husky keep expanding their oil sands operations, it can substantially increase its FFO without even building anything new.

However, even if the NGL and oil sands growth stories come to nothing, IPL offers a safe and likely to grow 6.7% yield with a payout ratio of only 73%.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5171 posts
1609 upvotes
Thornhill
Wavelet wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 5:59 pm
IPL is pretty easy to understand. It's business has four segments.

- Oil Sands pipelines in Alberta with flows guaranteed on long-term contracts with Suncor, Husky, CNQ and Imperial Oil (55% of FFO)
- Conventional Oil Pipelines (20% of FFO)
- NGL processing (15% of FFO)
- Bulk liquid storage in Europe (10% of FFO)

Naturally, this is not quite the percentage in every quarter (in particular, NGL was down last quarter due to one of its facilities being offline for 30 days due to scheduled maintenance) but is roughly correct. They're also planning on diversifying further, but those projects are not yet contributing to FFO.

The main uncertainties of the business are the future of Alberta's oil sands and the future of NGLs. The latter seems promising, but that promise has not yet been fully realized, while many doubt the future of the oil sands. If the oil sands substantially decline in production, IPL can survive, but will suffer and there will probably be dividend cuts. However, in my view, this is rather unlikely. More likely, as the projected oil sands production growth story plays out slowly over the next decade, I expect IPL to use more of their existing pipeline capacity, as they currently only use about 55% of it. So, it has growth prospects elsewhere, but even if they all came to naught, so long as Suncor, CNQ, Imperial Oil and Husky keep expanding their oil sands operations, it can substantially increase its FFO without even building anything new.

However, even if the NGL and oil sands growth stories come to nothing, IPL offers a safe and likely to grow 6.7% yield with a payout ratio of only 73%.
Aren't you afraid of Canadian NG exports being mostly and or completely unable to secure contracts to Asia vs. United States ie: Cheniere? Petronas recently scrapping the proposed $36B in Alberta seemed like a clear sign of caution to Canadian NG in terms of growth prospects to me. https://ca.reuters.com/article/business ... A2C8-OCABS

Just yesterday the United States actually became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time in 60 years -https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-of ... first-time

There's also a LOT of projects going on in the U.S that will likely further reduce Canada's exports into the U.S when fully online ie: Rover pipeline as a double whammy. I'd seriously take a look at U.S NG players such as Cheniere Energy, Inc.(NYSEMKT:LNG) instead of Canadian NG plays. I started a long-term position this year in Cheniere and ETP for this very reason. If and when Chenier secures more exports with key Asian contracts; domestic NG prices will eventually take off to the upside and foreign investments will likely be looking to the U.S for partnerships, not Canada unfortunately imho. Alberta is just not a friendly place for energy like the U.S is, add the ludicrous carbon tax in as well...
Member
Jun 28, 2016
267 posts
139 upvotes
Jeenyus1 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 6:25 pm
Aren't you afraid of Canadian NG exports being mostly and or completely unable to secure contracts to Asia vs. United States ie: Cheniere? Petronas recently scrapping the proposed $36B in Alberta seemed like a clear sign of caution to Canadian NG in terms of growth prospects to me. https://ca.reuters.com/article/business ... A2C8-OCABS

Just yesterday the United States actually became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time in 60 years -https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-of ... first-time

There's also a LOT of projects going on in the U.S that will likely further reduce Canada's exports into the U.S when fully online ie: Rover pipeline as a double whammy. I'd seriously take a look at U.S NG players such as Cheniere Energy, Inc.(NYSEMKT:LNG) instead of Canadian NG plays. I started a long-term position this year in Cheniere and ETP for this very reason. If and when Chenier secures more exports with key Asian contracts; domestic NG prices will eventually take off to the upside and foreign investments will likely be looking to the U.S for partnerships, not Canada unfortunately imho. Alberta is just not a friendly place for energy like the U.S is, add the ludicrous carbon tax in as well...
That's why I'm not that excited about the NGL business. Note that I didn't say much about it beyond the fact that some people see it as an opportunity. I see the big opportunity as oil sands production rising, if CAPP is even close to on target in their Canadian production estimates through 2030. Even if they're not, the dividend would still be safe and give an acceptable return on its own.

Hopefully, Canada will eventually start playing catch up on NGLs, but even if it doesn't, I don't expect this part of their business to get any worse, as prices in North America are probably on the way up, not down. In summary, I don't consider this a play on NGLs. I consider it a play on Canadian oil production.
Member
Jun 28, 2016
267 posts
139 upvotes
RolandCouch wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 5:36 pm
I wasn't impressed after a quick glance...
On a closer look, earnings were basically fine besides the NGL segment, which was down to about a third of its first quarter FFO due to a month of scheduled maintenance each at two different facilities. Apparently, this maintenance is only needed every 3 years or so, so the results look worse at first glance than they actually are. All the other three segments are either stronger than in the first quarter (which was a pretty good quarter) or only very slightly worse in the case of the bulk liquid storage business in Europe.
Deal Guru
Jun 26, 2011
10542 posts
1167 upvotes
Markham
Wavelet wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 11:50 pm
On a closer look, earnings were basically fine besides the NGL segment, which was down to about a third of its first quarter FFO due to a month of scheduled maintenance each at two different facilities. Apparently, this maintenance is only needed every 3 years or so, so the results look worse at first glance than they actually are. All the other three segments are either stronger than in the first quarter (which was a pretty good quarter) or only very slightly worse in the case of the bulk liquid storage business in Europe.
I haven't had a chance to read through in depth yet (will do later tonight or tomorrow) but I bet tomorrow will be another down day. I'll still hold though (and possibly add if the market overreacts).
Deal Addict
Nov 9, 2013
2108 posts
839 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
Telus missed it's earnings today, despite growing revenues and adding subscribers. Is it too much to hope this triggers a sell off?

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