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What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • Oct 20th, 2017 4:27 pm
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Deal Addict
Dec 6, 2006
3708 posts
679 upvotes
Toronto
Jeenyus1 wrote:
Oct 5th, 2017 11:38 am
Watching Navient Corp (NASDAQ:NAVI) for new position in long-term portfolio. Doing some research before deciding.

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Too big to fail and dividend payout is safe. Waiting for it to hit a new low first but will be adding 100% when it happens.
What do you think of the lawsuit? Any material chance that it'll affect the company's bottom line?
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Jan 1, 2004
1515 posts
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Kanata
STP123 wrote:
Oct 5th, 2017 10:30 am
The 2016 Shaw Media acquisition early 2016 appears to be working as planned. That was the issue I was concerned about. Reading analyst projections, FCF will be around $357 million in 2018. Declared dividends will be approx $236 mill, but $59 mill will come from the drip plan, so net $177 mill from FCF. Therefore, enough to sustain the high dividend. I don't expect much dividend growth going forward, but at 8%+ yield, not an issue for me.
Thanks for your insight ! Need to do a bit more research on this.
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Oct 9, 2008
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boyohboy wrote:
Oct 5th, 2017 5:53 pm
What do you think of the lawsuit? Any material chance that it'll affect the company's bottom line?
It's a loaded lawsuit imo.

Just bought full position @ $12.6694

Willing to take the risk for 5% yield.

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For a in-depth look at what the PA Attorney General is seeking in his lawsuit read this then have a laugh:

http://www.mcall.com/business/mc-nws-wh ... story.html
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Mar 6, 2017
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Why is Costco dropping so much after beating earning expectation?
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Sep 19, 2004
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walukupix wrote:
Oct 6th, 2017 11:34 am
Why is Costco dropping so much after beating earning expectation?
because this market is crazy
NFLX/TSLA would run UP on any good/bad news :P

Costco drops on concerns over renewal rates - Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) | Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3299787-c ... ewal-rates
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Dec 3, 2014
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jerryhung wrote:
Oct 6th, 2017 3:49 pm
CVS/WBA or retail (COSTCO and etc...) are getting killed by AMZN or AMZN rumors (possibly entering regulated pharmacy), AGAIN, for the Nth time
Either the drops in these retailers are dramatically overdone or Amazon is a huge buy right now because Amazon is still off 52 week highs and has been since July 26th despite a slew of positive Amazon news since that time.
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Mar 16, 2010
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walukupix wrote:
Oct 6th, 2017 11:34 am
Why is Costco dropping so much after beating earning expectation?
Concerns about renewal rates which make up about 75% of costcos revenue.
Sr. Member
Oct 9, 2001
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NFLX and AMZN mulitiples are rediculous. GOOG and AAPL seem like value stocks in comparison. At one point this market has to get it right.
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Sep 19, 2004
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CVS/WBA at multi-year lows, after dropping like -10% in 2 days
Debating if I should add more on this AMZN news/rumor

Geez, how many things can AMZN kill - Retails, Pharmacy

while WMT is standing alone, new 52w high (+2% today)
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jerryhung wrote:
Oct 9th, 2017 12:16 pm
CVS/WBA at multi-year lows, after dropping like -10% in 2 days
Debating if I should add more on this AMZN news/rumor

Geez, how many things can AMZN kill - Retails, Pharmacy

while WMT is standing alone, new 52w high (+2% today)
Selling: PII
Adding to: CVS

If AMZN does move into the pharmacy business it'll buy a company to do so - I can't see it starting from scratch. The pharmacy business is a low margin, high regulation business that is going to be difficult to gain market share in.

Tonight at thanksgiving dinner I'm going to ask my great great aunt - who is 94 - if she would switch from her local pharmacy to Amazon. What will her answer be?

Grocery stores are easier to disrupt - everyone of all ages needs to buy food. Who did they target with the Whole Foods acquisition? The users of their online stores - millennials. How is Amazon going to get those who are on long term prescription medications - i.e.the elderly - the bread and butter of the pharmacy business? It'll have to acquire a customer base (by buying a company).

CVS is probably worth about ~$100 so it's trading at a 25% margin of safety. It's a dominant player with omnichannel offerings that is continuing to grow revenues and earnings. So worst case scenario, even if AMZN does enter the space (say by acquiring a smaller competitor) it would have to steal customers away from a company like CVS to grow it's sales. Will my 94 year old great great aunt switch from her pharmacy to Amazon? Would your great great aunt / grandmother / grand father etc? I would bet no.

If AMZN doesn't enter this space then in the long term it's all upside. Asymmetrical risk / reward in my opinion.

Also, as an side, wouldn't it be prudent for AMZN management to see how things go in a low regulation, low margin business (grocery retail) before stepping up the difficulty and going into a high regulation, low margin business?
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Feb 26, 2017
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treva84 wrote:
Oct 9th, 2017 2:13 pm
Selling: PII
Adding to: CVS

If AMZN does move into the pharmacy business it'll buy a company to do so - I can't see it starting from scratch. The pharmacy business is a low margin, high regulation business that is going to be difficult to gain market share in.

Tonight at thanksgiving dinner I'm going to ask my great great aunt - who is 94 - if she would switch from her local pharmacy to Amazon. What will her answer be?

Grocery stores are easier to disrupt - everyone of all ages needs to buy food. Who did they target with the Whole Foods acquisition? The users of their online stores - millennials. How is Amazon going to get those who are on long term prescription medications - i.e.the elderly - the bread and butter of the pharmacy business? It'll have to acquire a customer base (by buying a company).

CVS is probably worth about ~$100 so it's trading at a 25% margin of safety. It's a dominant player with omnichannel offerings that is continuing to grow revenues and earnings. So worst case scenario, even if AMZN does enter the space (say by acquiring a smaller competitor) it would have to steal customers away from a company like CVS to grow it's sales. Will my 94 year old great great aunt switch from her pharmacy to Amazon? Would your great great aunt / grandmother / grand father etc? I would bet no.

If AMZN doesn't enter this space then in the long term it's all upside. Asymmetrical risk / reward in my opinion.

Also, as an side, wouldn't it be prudent for AMZN management to see how things go in a low regulation, low margin business (grocery retail) before stepping up the difficulty and going into a high regulation, low margin business?
I think that's a good price for CVS. The fundamentals are strong (20% dividend growth and a 29% payout ratio). I think it would take Amazon years to build a presence in the industry. have a full position I bought for around 80 earlier this year. I don't like owning a retail stock but I have to think CVS will rebound at some point.
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Dec 3, 2014
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Ontario
Chance7652 wrote:
Oct 9th, 2017 3:41 pm
I think that's a good price for CVS. The fundamentals are strong (20% dividend growth and a 29% payout ratio). I think it would take Amazon years to build a presence in the industry. have a full position I bought for around 80 earlier this year. I don't like owning a retail stock but I have to think CVS will rebound at some point.
Also agreed. CVS is a no brainer here. I have a full position ($79.51 ACB), otherwise would buy more

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