Real Estate

Locked: When will we know that TO/GTA real estate has bottomed?

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 16th, 2018 10:50 am
Deal Fanatic
May 31, 2007
5000 posts
2109 upvotes
asa1973 wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 1:55 pm
Exactly it's not done yet. With CAD jumped to 0.8USD quite exclusively on oil price and 60k job loss expected https://globalnews.ca/news/3944598/6000 ... -increase/
BoC just got few more excuse to hold on rate change remembering his "cautious" statement in Dec. Any negative sentiment on top of that and rate hike is toast. I quite doubt BoC will increase rate before March-April and more then 2 per year.
Well see what the data has in store, tomorrow jobs report and discuss in rate hike thread.

Poloz might hike his month if jobs kills it. I doubt he's going to wait all year to see if minimum wage cuts 60k jobs before he hikes rate.

Inflation is building and they can't afford to let that slide, as it becomes very problematic keeping it from creeping up and keeping prices stable.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4354 posts
4046 upvotes
Toronto
Jungle wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 1:55 pm
No since April average is down about 45k

10k month loss is nothing to sneeze at. For investors who bought this year, that could easily wipe out their equity and now underwater. Especially if you factor closing costs. If we didn't have Ofsi and raising interest rate this would not be as concerning.
That's a 7.9% reduction, after going up 32.3% in 1 year. And it took massive government intervention to even get there.
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
1747 posts
728 upvotes
Houston, TX
Jungle wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 2:04 pm
Well see what the data has in store, tomorrow jobs report and discuss in rate hike thread.

Poloz might hike his month if jobs kills it. I doubt he's going to wait all year to see if minimum wage cuts 60k jobs before he hikes rate.

Inflation is building and they can't afford to let that slide, as it becomes very problematic keeping it from creeping up and keeping prices stable.
We'll see. But you have to count on "external" factors such as oil going up (and some bullish trend due to problem in Mid East, cold weather) and USD down combined lifting CAD up to 0.8c or 1.25USDCAD already. Few more cents up due to this and with BoC rate hike loonie will be quite close to the par (like 90c) with USD. While it's good to consumer shopping, it would be quite a disaster to export which is wobbly last few years, especially for such "discounted" as heavy crude and oilsands, which now are quite OK in big part due to FX overriding the discount (in USD).

The last thing Poloz would want to have a deflation or killing the export with rate hike.
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
4840 posts
2044 upvotes
Thornhill
I don't think you realize you agree with me that it is buyers driving price not sellers...
Jungle wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 12:52 pm
...Amature landlords..
= buyers
speculation over the last 5 years..
= buyers
according to breakthrough Realosophy report produced last spring/summer. It showed in certain areas of GTA, aprox 20-40% of detach houses were bought for investment only and rented out cash flow negative....
= buyers
Investors were only buying...
= buyers
... and fair housing plan spooked the market, speculators have fled the scene, because they knew the party was over....
= buyers
"This" portion of the demand...
= buyers

Nothing in your post runs counter to what I've stated.
Deal Addict
Feb 23, 2009
1351 posts
1230 upvotes
Oshawa
licenced wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 10:47 am
Trajectory for me meant sales first, the two way street makes price secondary. You seem to be speaking only about price but you are incorrect
I am not incorrect as you don't just "have a sale first". Do they teach you this in RE agent courses? Once again, you can't have a sale without a seller and a buyer (although you sometimes don't have REAL sellers or buyers).
The price trajectory is determined by who buys and sells and for what reasons. It's no different than the stock market except you sometimes actually need a place to live, you don't really need a stock.
licenced wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 10:47 am
Sellers can never drive up prices since it is obvious that the persons acquiring the real estate are the ones who do the paying. That's a fundamental fact that will never change - supply versus demand.
The sellers can only influence price where demand calls for it and the seller pool is low.
Wrong. As we saw in the RE market last Spring, sellers and agents forced prices to bubble levels with bidding war schemes that the buyer herd bought into...up until a point....then suddenly they stopped buying.
As in the previous RE bubble in the late '80's some transactions were suspect.
Selling tactics then turned back to traditional listing at or above the true market price. The buyer was left to determine what the real price of RE should be.
licenced wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 10:47 am
This is pure assumption. The market had been crazy for years, year after year. Sellers didn't just wake up one April 2017 morning and decide it was time to sell, listings swelled and the buyer pool collapsed because of government intervention that unequivocally set out to slow or reverse the accelerating prices and speculation. That in turned spooked sellers who saw their profits from flipping, landlording erode or disappear try to get out.
Not assumption, fact. The market has not "been crazy for years, year after year" only in the last couple years. Historically the market usually trundles along, increasing at slow, steady pace but interrupted by bubbles and declines. We were on about a 10yr cycle of spike and dump until we didn't follow the US market in 2008/9 due to the Fed bailout and low rate environment.
It's a fact sellers did flood the market in March and April with listings as they suddenly figured out they could retire, cash in, pay off the mortgage, downsize, etc. Add more new construction in the GTA. Add more RE agents stirring the pot. All this added to sellers who were still trying to flip created coupled with buyers who stopped drinking the Koolaid made the bubble pop.
Sellers had to lower prices. Listings were suddenly on the market for weeks and months. Not assumption, fact.
licenced wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 10:47 am
When sellers come out in droves it can be traced to two reasons: 1) end users they can no longer afford to carry the property 2) investors expect to lose their shirts.
This is only true in a decline like we have had since the Spring. More reasons are what we had towards the end of the bubble...sellers who normally were not looking to sell at that time but jumped in (retire, downsize, pay off mortgage), sellers who were still flipping and saw the end and RE agents who still wanted to make transactions and money like they had for the last 2 years.
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
4840 posts
2044 upvotes
Thornhill
pkrash wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 9:08 pm
I am not incorrect as you don't just "have a sale first". Do they teach you this in RE agent courses? Once again, you can't have a sale without a seller and a buyer (although you sometimes don't have REAL sellers or buyers).
The price trajectory is determined by who buys and sells and for what reasons. It's no different than the stock market except you sometimes actually need a place to live, you don't really need a stock.
There's no need to resort to insult it diminishes your argument.

Correct, one cannot have a sale without a seller and a buyer.

More importantly and this is what you fail to understand, one cannot sell a property without a buyer buying the property/

And, one does not need to buy in order to have a place to live. That statement is without any merit whatsoever. These two points are all that needs to be said to confirm my position which is that it is the buyers who will determine the market trajectory which n case you haven't noticed has been made unequivocally clear since since April.

The seller cannot whistle dixie all day long trying to influence price trajectory as you first spoke to, they'll be unsuccessful.

It's a simple economic fact.
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
4840 posts
2044 upvotes
Thornhill
Oh and, what unadultered nonsense!

Sellers after years of gains, suddenly decided?

Why do people just have to resort to such outlandish statements?

The year over year growth is there for anyone to see.

I work this business and communicate with others in the industry on a daily basis. This very forum has threads going back years where not a month went by that users weren't saying it had peaked and you come up with "all of a sudden"




pkrash wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 9:08 pm
It's a fact sellers did flood the market in March and April with listings as they suddenly figured out they could retire, cash in, pay off the mortgage, downsize, etc.
Deal Addict
Feb 23, 2009
1351 posts
1230 upvotes
Oshawa
licenced wrote:
Jan 4th, 2018 9:41 pm
There's no need to resort to insult it diminishes your argument.

Correct, one cannot have a sale without a seller and a buyer.

More importantly and this is what you fail to understand, one cannot sell a property without a buyer buying the property/

And, one does not need to buy in order to have a place to live. That statement is without any merit whatsoever. These two points are all that needs to be said to confirm my position which is that it is the buyers who will determine the market trajectory which n case you haven't noticed has been made unequivocally clear since since April.

The seller cannot whistle dixie all day long trying to influence price trajectory as you first spoke to, they'll be unsuccessful.

It's a simple economic fact.
Interesting that you took my comments as an insult...they weren't meant to be.
It was a legitimate question. Where do you get these ideas?
Your comments are completely wrong and biased.
Maybe you are just naive or trying to force some agenda, but business doesn't work that way.
There are a number of forces that affect RE price and trajectory...and yes, there are such things as collusion, fraud and fake news.
You do realize that if all sellers refuse to sell at a certain price or time a buyer cannot buy regardless of what you think.
I can post a selling price for a house and set a trajectory. I can advertise that it sold for way above asking and create hype. I can advertise that it sold before the deal has actually closed.
As a so called professional you shouldn't be misleading people like this.
[OP]
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
127 posts
171 upvotes
TO Real Estate Charts have included Dec TREB stats- TO detached link below,

http://torontorealestatecharts.com/2018 ... f-toronto/

Great charts for different regions/ property types. Anything stand out in the charts that interest you? Insights that can be drawn?
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
4840 posts
2044 upvotes
Thornhill
pkrash wrote:
Jan 5th, 2018 9:01 am
Maybe you are just naive or trying to force some agenda, but business doesn't work that way.
There are a number of forces that affect RE price and trajectory...and yes, there are such things as collusion, fraud and fake news.
You do realize that if all sellers refuse to sell at a certain price or time a buyer cannot buy regardless of what you think.
I can post a selling price for a house and set a trajectory. I can advertise that it sold for way above asking and create hype. I can advertise that it sold before the deal has actually closed.
As a so called professional you shouldn't be misleading people like this.
Yes sure and all that hype and posting of sold prices has worked so well for sellers since April prices are still going through the roof.

Here's a question for you.

If only one house was listed for sale and no buyer stepped forward what trajectory did the house seller set?

The answer won't veer from what is found here when your position on how the market works is applied
5,551 more sellers than in April decided to list in May and set the course for:
1,434 fewer buyers to came out to play ----------- your position that seller sets the trajectory fails
the average price was depleted by $57,000 -------your position that seller sets the trajectory fails

and it's been that way since, and that's the way it's always been...

when the buyers decide to stay home sellers can diddle all day with the false theory that they can set the trajectory.

It's the belief of false theories like that that actually exacerbate market problems. A prime example is that unless you buy now you'll never own which does nothing but push the price up.

When you and others who think like you come to understand that, you'll come to understand market fundamentals and what is needed to drive a balanced market.

may 10,196 sales $863,910 avg 18,477 listings
april 11,630 920,910 12,926
Deal Addict
Feb 23, 2009
1351 posts
1230 upvotes
Oshawa
licenced wrote:
Jan 5th, 2018 12:10 pm
Yes sure and all that hype and posting of sold prices has worked so well for sellers since April prices are still going through the roof.
You love to take things out of context. More Fake News.
licenced wrote:
Jan 5th, 2018 12:10 pm
Here's a question for you.
If only one house was listed for sale and no buyer stepped forward what trajectory did the house seller set?
You don't answer all my questions but I will answer yours.
The house doesn't sell for many reasons. It could be infested with vermin. Next to a toxic waste dump. Simply the one major control the seller has is the listing price. Too high and nobody cares but the neighbour who actually sells and thanks the high priced seller for setting the bar higher. Too low a listing price and you get attention possibly leading to offers if the property is actually worth something. If the bidding war works well you can get a sale over the current market price of the property. In a market where the herd believes RE is a good investment you can bring out buyers who really weren't looking to buy. Do I actually have to explain this to anyone who has followed RE in the last couple years let alone decades?
licenced wrote:
Jan 5th, 2018 12:10 pm
The answer won't veer from what is found here when your position on how the market works is applied
5,551 more sellers than in April decided to list in May and set the course for:
1,434 fewer buyers to came out to play....
You just said more sellers set the course....that's also know as "trajectory". Thanks for proving my point.
licenced wrote:
Jan 5th, 2018 12:10 pm
----------- your position that seller sets the trajectory fails
the average price was depleted by $57,000 -------your position that seller sets the trajectory fails
And no, the sellers only started adjusting prices once they found they couldn't sell. They and their agents also adjusted the WAY they were selling properties. There is always a lag to any movement because you need to convince a buyer to buy and a seller to adjust the price and actually sell to get a transaction.
Of course there are always people who NEED to sell or NEED to buy that can provide transactions.
Add the banks and Feds changing rules and the media spin you get the selling and buying herds moving in different ways.
Remember I'm not saying only the seller determines trajectory, I'm just saying you're wrong to say it's only the buyer.
Once again, I'm surprised I have to explain the basics of how the market works.
licenced wrote:
Jan 5th, 2018 12:10 pm
It's the belief of false theories like that that actually exacerbate market problems. A prime example is that unless you buy now you'll never own which does nothing but push the price up.
You once again prove my point that many things affect the trajectory...even Fake News created by people that are not buyers.
Sr. Member
Feb 21, 2010
634 posts
139 upvotes
Scarborough
Was chatting with local realtor this morning. He said buyers are looking for prices that do not exist, seller is looking for maximum 10-15% lower than March 2017 peak, and no deals are being done. For example, right now towns are listed for 670-720 range and buyers are willing to pay only 550-600. Last spring, these towns were sold for 750+ within a day or two. Someone has to blink first and will set the pace. There are literally 4 deals in the area in last month or so. Earlier in 2017, it was 3-4 deals a week.
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
4840 posts
2044 upvotes
Thornhill
romeocanada wrote:
Jan 6th, 2018 2:08 pm
Was chatting with local realtor this morning. He said buyers are looking for prices that do not exist, seller is looking for maximum 10-15% lower than March 2017 peak, and no deals are being done. For example, right now towns are listed for 670-720 range and buyers are willing to pay only 550-600. Last spring, these towns were sold for 750+ within a day or two. Someone has to blink first and will set the pace. There are literally 4 deals in the area in last month or so. Earlier in 2017, it was 3-4 deals a week.
It has been that way since mid-April.

pkrash is of the impression that sellers are the ones who control the market's trajectory.

These buyers obviously didn't get his/her memo.

Either that or sellers have for the only time ever in history decided fewer sales and lower prices is the trend to set.
Deal Addict
Feb 23, 2009
1351 posts
1230 upvotes
Oshawa
licenced wrote:
Jan 6th, 2018 7:29 pm
It has been that way since mid-April.

pkrash is of the impression that sellers are the ones who control the market's trajectory.

These buyers obviously didn't get his/her memo.

Either that or sellers have for the only time ever in history decided fewer sales and lower prices is the trend to set.
Please stop spreading Fake News.
I never posted that sellers are the only ones who control the market's trajectory.
It is quite evident that market is different since April and the buying herd has changed...if you can find a buyer.
The sellers have also changed.
Member
Jun 19, 2017
406 posts
609 upvotes
romeocanada wrote:
Jan 6th, 2018 2:08 pm
Was chatting with local realtor this morning. He said buyers are looking for prices that do not exist, seller is looking for maximum 10-15% lower than March 2017 peak, and no deals are being done. For example, right now towns are listed for 670-720 range and buyers are willing to pay only 550-600. Last spring, these towns were sold for 750+ within a day or two. Someone has to blink first and will set the pace. There are literally 4 deals in the area in last month or so. Earlier in 2017, it was 3-4 deals a week.
It may be that buyers are not able to pay more even if they want to given the higher mortgage costs and tight lending policies.

It could be up to sellers to either drop their prices or hold for the long term.

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