Real Estate

Locked: When will we know that TO/GTA real estate has bottomed?

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 16th, 2018 10:50 am
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Oct 23, 2003
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Qrewpt wrote:
Jan 8th, 2018 8:28 pm
It's refreshing to read your post, I think you hit the nail on the head. So many people seem so non-chalant over debt and dismissive of the downside.

We've had declining rates and appreciating prices for so long that it seems unfathomable that it could be any other way.

Year over year the vast majority of housing is not even put on the market, so even if a small percentage of people at the margins are affected and are forced to sell, it's quite possible they can move the market and have potential to cause a cascade as "equity" evapotates on those dependant on it for their Helocs.
any market built on credit is a house of cards. One major difference in Canada is that the government's been cheating and gluing them together on purpose (CMHC + abnormally low interest rates) instead of allowing a free market. Now, the same government, is literally using a glue gun to try and remove that dependency by heating it up and peeling away at its layers. lol

I think if it all goes to plan, RE wont be a sexy market anymore and speculators will move away, essentially normalizing it (2-3% annual gains). Also, if the CRA and FINTRAC do their thing to keep busting money laundering in Vancouver, you'll see the rats head for the ocean, the more Canada becomes a less hospitable place for that sort of activity. (but i have my doubt any politician has the country's best interests at heart, over the interests of their own pockets)
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Mar 23, 2003
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Hamilton
pkrash wrote:
Jan 7th, 2018 11:35 am
It doesn't matter what TREB or the RE media spin at this point, the herd has moved on to pot stocks and imaginary currencies.
The perception is you can't make money in RE now.
People end the cycle in condos because it's a lower price point, they haven't been built yet so I don't have to actually have any $$ and I still think I can be a landlord and rent it out.
The rates and rules will take even more people out of the market on a technical basis.
Prices go lower.
the dollars in your pocket are a piece of paper with drawings and numbers written on them.
Their value, even though written, changes due to inflation or deflation.
Same with the numbers in your bank account / investment fund.
Who decides these numbers?
Crypto is the same.
Who decides those numbers?

You decide who or what you'd like to decide those numbers/valuations and then choose which way to go.
( I suggest research )

But calling imaginary money "imaginary" includes your fiat in your pocket.
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Feb 23, 2009
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Oshawa
sidshock wrote:
Jan 9th, 2018 9:29 am
the dollars in your pocket are a piece of paper with drawings and numbers written on them.
Their value, even though written, changes due to inflation or deflation.
Same with the numbers in your bank account / investment fund.
Who decides these numbers?
Crypto is the same.
Who decides those numbers?

You decide who or what you'd like to decide those numbers/valuations and then choose which way to go.
( I suggest research )

But calling imaginary money "imaginary" includes your fiat in your pocket.
Do I really have to explain the difference between real currency and imaginary currency?
Let's start with the fact that I can pay for real things with real currency.
I can almost sort of pay for kind of sort of things with imaginary currency that sort of kind of has some sort of value.
P.S. I do not have an Italian car in my pocket.
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Mar 23, 2003
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pkrash wrote:
Jan 9th, 2018 9:09 pm
Do I really have to explain the difference between real currency and imaginary currency?
Let's start with the fact that I can pay for real things with real currency.
I can almost sort of pay for kind of sort of things with imaginary currency that sort of kind of has some sort of value.
P.S. I do not have an Italian car in my pocket.
At first it was hard to buy things with usd dollars here. Now it's much easier.
Easy to compare old established money (fiat) to new crypto.
I am not comparing tangible things like land. Cars. Houses.
I am comparing fiat to crypto.
You act like the amount written on your bills or in your bank sccount(s) is going to be the same tomorrow or in 10 yrs if you don't touch it and interest isn't accumulated.
All I'm saying is, the only real difference I see between fiat (dollar bills) and crypto is who and or what regulates it.
All will sort itself out. But to say crypto is worthless or going to be worthless is guesswork.
I dunno which way it will go personally.
The dot Com bubble happened. It all crashed.
I'm sure people said that was a pyramid scheme too. Maybe in part it was.
However, almost everything is dot Com now.
This forum for example.

An example for you
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/ma ... e-bitcoin/

Sure there aren't many.
But how new is crypto?

The gov't wants you to hate it because they don't know how to regulate or control it.
Can you imagine how much that scares it?
Not for our sake I can tell you.

Is this good in the long run? I have no idea.
I think you need to come to terms that what you call real money is just as imaginary as crypto. It's on a piece of paper and gov't(s) tell you how much it's worth and sometimes they lose control. Print more. Print less. Heck. Make it worthless and make new money.

What you see as real money is just more stable (for now)
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
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Houston, TX
Buggy166 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2018 3:07 am
any market built on credit is a house of cards. One major difference in Canada is that the government's been cheating and gluing them together on purpose (CMHC + abnormally low interest rates) instead of allowing a free market. Now, the same government, is literally using a glue gun to try and remove that dependency by heating it up and peeling away at its layers. lol

I think if it all goes to plan, RE wont be a sexy market anymore and speculators will move away, essentially normalizing it (2-3% annual gains). Also, if the CRA and FINTRAC do their thing to keep busting money laundering in Vancouver, you'll see the rats head for the ocean, the more Canada becomes a less hospitable place for that sort of activity. (but i have my doubt any politician has the country's best interests at heart, over the interests of their own pockets)
How the government, in Canada could cheat with rates as it do NOT control them (even BoC do not control 5y bonds rates). The SAME "ultralow" rates are available in USA, and what a surprise, they also have some areas like Seattle or Bay area with average price of SFH 1m+ (in non-ghetto area) and double digit growth last years. Is it also a Canadian government fault, lol?
Besides they have 30y rate term (and ability to switch lenders) and (they had at least) ability to deduct mortgage from taxes and 500k price gain exempt from taxation on PRE.
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
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Oct 23, 2003
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asa1973 wrote:
Jan 10th, 2018 11:55 am
How the government, in Canada could cheat with rates as it do NOT control them (even BoC do not control 5y bonds rates). The SAME "ultralow" rates are available in USA, and what a surprise, they also have some areas like Seattle or Bay area with average price of SFH 1m+ (in non-ghetto area) and double digit growth last years. Is it also a Canadian government fault, lol?
Besides they have 30y rate term (and ability to switch lenders) and (they had at least) ability to deduct mortgage from taxes and 500k price gain exempt from taxation on PRE.
great that you're living in present times but you conveniently forgot the 0% down and 40 year mortgages that started this bull run in RE. The government and the BoC have more than plenty of control within their own borders.

Now its all the States fault? lol The same country that allowed their RE market to collapse and recover instead of propping it up like Canada? Might as well blame Trump as well. Makes just as much sense.
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Jan 20, 2016
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Houston, TX
Buggy166 wrote:
Jan 10th, 2018 5:36 pm
great that you're living in present times but you conveniently forgot the 0% down and 40 year mortgages that started this bull run in RE. The government and the BoC have more than plenty of control within their own borders.

Now its all the States fault? lol The same country that allowed their RE market to collapse and recover instead of propping it up like Canada? Might as well blame Trump as well. Makes just as much sense.
Unlike you I don't blame USA or someone else in Canadian RE prices level. USA had RE crash for quite different reasons and in different condition.
But to Canada, the 40y mortgage (insured) which some so like to poke at didn't exist many years already. Actually government DO tighten rules almost every year. In 2011 max insured term was 30y, then it becomes 25, minimum down payment was increased for 500k+ homes, next comes stress test for insured mortgages...
So it's not like you try to picture it like till 2018 it was 40y 5% mortgages for NINJA borrowers and only now they started doing something...
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
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Oct 23, 2003
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asa1973 wrote:
Jan 10th, 2018 7:17 pm
Unlike you I don't blame USA or someone else in Canadian RE prices level. USA had RE crash for quite different reasons and in different condition.
But to Canada, the 40y mortgage (insured) which some so like to poke at didn't exist many years already. Actually government DO tighten rules almost every year. In 2011 max insured term was 30y, then it becomes 25, minimum down payment was increased for 500k+ homes, next comes stress test for insured mortgages...
So it's not like you try to picture it like till 2018 it was 40y 5% mortgages for NINJA borrowers and only now they started doing something...
re-read my posts. slowly. Everything you just said, I already previously stated.

As for picturing anything in 2018, I already have friends who have HELOCs on their primary home that they used to buy secondary condos with, majority of cases with 5-10% down. They're not ninjas or imaginary people.
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Jul 14, 2002
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Buggy166 wrote:
Jan 10th, 2018 9:22 pm
re-read my posts. slowly. Everything you just said, I already previously stated.

As for picturing anything in 2018, I already have friends who have HELOCs on their primary home that they used to buy secondary condos with, majority of cases with 5-10% down. They're not ninjas or imaginary people.
maybe that will be the black swan, 1/7 of people who own more than one property.
undercovered in media as mentioned by another poster.

condo prices may appear to be on fire, but i see 400k 2br condos sitting for months when their rent is $2100.
what puzzles me is in this market is, why is the demand not there to purchase, if the rental demand is high?
400k on a mortgage will have monthly payments less than $2100 and you're saving equity instead of doing it for the landlord.
Sr. Member
Feb 21, 2010
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Scarborough
And what’s the condo fees every month. Assuming it is 600 and then property taxes of 200 and then insurance of 50

dantey wrote:
Jan 11th, 2018 9:37 am
maybe that will be the black swan, 1/7 of people who own more than one property.
undercovered in media as mentioned by another poster.

condo prices may appear to be on fire, but i see 400k 2br condos sitting for months when their rent is $2100.
what puzzles me is in this market is, why is the demand not there to purchase, if the rental demand is high?
400k on a mortgage will have monthly payments less than $2100 and you're saving equity instead of doing it for the landlord.
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romeocanada wrote:
Jan 11th, 2018 12:52 pm
And what’s the condo fees every month. Assuming it is 600 and then property taxes of 200 and then insurance of 50
670.
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Jul 3, 2011
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Thornhill
dantey wrote:
Jan 11th, 2018 9:37 am
what puzzles me is in this market is, why is the demand not there to purchase, if the rental demand is high?
Wynne's changes to the RTA, potential vacancy tax, Toronto's uber rentals restrictions all serve to highlight the hidden driver of the condo market last year - short-term rentals.

As I had noted back in May or June as soon as I noticed it, listings for rental properties increased significantly after Wynne's announcements as long-term landlords rushed for the exits.

The nail was driven into the condo coffin when Toronto brought in the Uber restrictions.

The shortage of long-term rental units was as a result of units being diverted for short-term rentals proving that those who insisted that the reason condo sales in mid-to lower level prices condos at 700sf and less was boomed as a result of priced-out homeowners, didn't know what they were talking about.

With that out of the way the condo market will naturally soften and will suffer the most (as it usually does) if the low-rise market doesn't stop dropping in value.
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Jul 14, 2002
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licenced wrote:
Jan 11th, 2018 2:08 pm
Wynne's changes to the RTA, potential vacancy tax, Toronto's uber rentals restrictions all serve to highlight the hidden driver of the condo market last year - short-term rentals.

As I had noted back in May or June as soon as I noticed it, listings for rental properties increased significantly after Wynne's announcements as long-term landlords rushed for the exits.

The nail was driven into the condo coffin when Toronto brought in the Uber restrictions.

The shortage of long-term rental units was as a result of units being diverted for short-term rentals proving that those who insisted that the reason condo sales in mid-to lower level prices condos at 700sf and less was boomed as a result of priced-out homeowners, didn't know what they were talking about.

With that out of the way the condo market will naturally soften and will suffer the most (as it usually does) if the low-rise market doesn't stop dropping in value.
so essentially the drop in supply of long term rentals were the driver of higher rental prices and consequently condo prices?
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Aug 15, 2013
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Guelph
sidshock wrote:
Jan 10th, 2018 12:10 am
I am comparing fiat to crypto.
You are harping about wrong comparison. You talk about Fiat and Crypto as currencies, while he is talking about RE vs Crypto as investments/speculations. This thread is not about viability of Crypto in the long term.
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Mar 23, 2003
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Hamilton
Uh. What?
My initial response, if you go up a bit, is to his comment regarding imaginary currency {crypto} in general.
I gave examples and ideas whereas as our fiat currency is just as imaginary and showed an example of a home purchase with crypto. I was not responding to his investment idea movement that he mentions (re, imaginary currencies, weed stocks). It was a specifc response to his take on 'imaginary'

Harping. Lol.
dundeal wrote:
Jan 11th, 2018 3:11 pm
You are harping about wrong comparison. You talk about Fiat and Crypto as currencies, while he is talking about RE vs Crypto as investments/speculations. This thread is not about viability of Crypto in the long term.

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