Real Estate

When will we know that TO/GTA real estate has bottomed?

  • Last Updated:
  • Dec 16th, 2017 10:08 pm
Deal Addict
Dec 27, 2006
1127 posts
292 upvotes
cartfan123 wrote:
Dec 4th, 2017 10:21 pm
In a way much of the bull market was fuelled by govt intervention which was taking interest rates too low for too long. Rates are still even being held abnormally low, then on the other hand all this Mish mash of measures to slow the market seeking to unwind some of the price increases that the low rates caused.

Bottom line if rates had been increased earlier and not taken to such low extremes there would be no need for the intervention to slow the housing market.

One hand not talking to the other. All a big joke.
Speaking of which this - http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/brit ... -1.3937755 government intervention has added rocket fuel to the condo maket..
Deal Fanatic
Dec 11, 2008
7506 posts
543 upvotes
Don't time the housing market. Buy what you can afford and don't consider it some sort of investment or retirement vehicle.

Life just got so much easier didn't it?
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
The issue with blaming gov intervention this late in the bull market is not seeing the risks building in the housing market, as much speculation was really getting out of control. This rate of increase was simply not sustainable nor desirable overall and becoming very risky.

To let the free market sort it out without any intervantion, could have cause a larger bubble to pop and fears of a disorderly unwind. This would have very negative effects on the entire economy.

It only took a run of confidence to almost fold Home Capital Group, so many systemic risks can build.
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
Sanyo wrote:
Dec 3rd, 2017 2:47 pm


Only thing left to truly depress prices would be massive rate hikes ... b of c is already aware it can’t increase too fast so your theory of 4 rate hikes in the next year is too optimistic... while we have had good growth , our economy is not on fire and overall growth is still below 2%. Also remember when rates went from 2% to about 4% and some change from 2005 to about 2007 or so it did not cause any major corrections.
The big difference in 2005 and 2007 was obviously housing prices were a fraction of what they are today, and household debt was significantly lower. SO rising interest rates didn't have so much of an impact.

For example, a relative bought house in 2005 @ 400k. It was appraised at 1.2M back in the summer.

Also you are right I may be too optimistic with 4 rate hikes considering risk to household debt and choking consumer spending.

There is a well balanced article today written by bloomberg suggesting investors see 3 rate hikes possible next year. (via overnight credit swaps)

NB economist also thinks BOC will deliver more hikes than the market is expecting next year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mmer-hikes

I see a lot of positive upswing for our economy in 2018, but RE prices are not one of them.
[OP]
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
104 posts
153 upvotes
cartfan123 wrote:
Dec 4th, 2017 10:21 pm
In a way much of the bull market was fuelled by govt intervention which was taking interest rates too low for too long. Rates are still even being held abnormally low, then on the other hand all this Mish mash of measures to slow the market seeking to unwind some of the price increases that the low rates caused.

Bottom line if rates had been increased earlier and not taken to such low extremes there would be no need for the intervention to slow the housing market.

One hand not talking to the other. All a big joke.
Couldn't agree more.

So, November TREB numbers are out,

TREB MLS average price
Apr 921K
Sept 775K
Oct 780K
Nov 761K

TO avg. detached
Apr 1.578M
Sept 1.355M
Oct 1.287M
Nov 1.276M

TO avg. apt condo
Apr 578K
Sept 554K
Oct 555K
Nov 555K

Of note, active listings remain high. Anticipate that months of inventory (listings/sales) will worsen in January and February.

The sometimes elephant in the room- poor liquidity for detached. But for the most desirable homes, many sellers are having a very difficult time selling (listings languishing for months/ multiple re-listings etc…). TREB stats don't reflect this. Not uncommon to find homes that have been in and out of the market for the past year trying to sell unsuccessfully. Not a great situation to be in when you are unable liquidate your most valuable asset in a timely fashion.
Last edited by inferiorplanet on Dec 5th, 2017 1:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2009
4660 posts
2338 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 5th, 2017 1:11 pm
Couldn't agree more.

So, November TREB numbers are out,

TREB MLS average price
Sept 775K
Oct 780K
Nov 761K

TO detached
Sept 1.355M
Oct 1.287M
Nov 1.276M

TO apt condo
Sept 554K
Oct 555K
Nov 555K

Of note, active listings remain high. Anticipate that months of inventory (listings/sales) will worsen in January and February.

The sometimes elephant in the room- poor liquidity for detached. But for the most desirable homes, many sellers are having a very difficult time selling (listings languishing for months/ multiple re-listings etc…). TREB stats don't reflect this. Not uncommon to find homes that have been in and out of the market for the past year trying to sell unsuccessfully. Not a great situation to be in when you are unable liquidate your most valuable asset in a timely fashion.
Past year? They must be living in hell if they couldn’t sell a house within a year ... very high end homes always take time even in bull markets cause of price point but if you couldn’t sell your sub million home over a year maybe it’s you ugly dirty disgusting house?
[OP]
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
104 posts
153 upvotes
Sanyo wrote:
Dec 5th, 2017 2:04 pm
Past year? They must be living in hell if they couldn’t sell a house within a year ... very high end homes always take time even in bull markets cause of price point but if you couldn’t sell your sub million home over a year maybe it’s you ugly dirty disgusting house?
Yes, maybe it’s your ugly dirty disgusting house… or your very unrealistic expectations for what the Market will bear for your very nice home in the City…

For a few days now, Mongohouse has been providing richer data on previous activity on listed homes. Was surprised by the number of detached that have been trying to sell for past 6 months to year in certain North York pockets. Notice the same for detached in the areas that you keep an eye on? Do tell.

It’s about time TREB lost their stranglehold on data. Long long long overdue.
Deal Guru
Aug 2, 2010
11119 posts
2286 upvotes
Generally 12-18 mos after it has happened...
Deal Addict
User avatar
Sep 8, 2007
4817 posts
2845 upvotes
Way Out of GTA
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 5th, 2017 3:39 pm
Yes, maybe it’s your ugly dirty disgusting house… or your very unrealistic expectations for what the Market will bear for your very nice home in the City…

For a few days now, Mongohouse has been providing richer data on previous activity on listed homes. Was surprised by the number of detached that have been trying to sell for past 6 months to year in certain North York pockets. Notice the same for detached in the areas that you keep an eye on? Do tell.

It’s about time TREB lost their stranglehold on data. Long long long overdue.
The listing and and price history on Mongo is helping paint an interesting picture. Many cases of those that just missed the early April highs and were still stubbornly trying to catch those prices thru the summer and settling for significantly less in Nov.

If they had just realized ok I missed the high but still getting a good price in May they would have gotten a better sale price.
Member
May 9, 2017
376 posts
409 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 5th, 2017 3:39 pm
Yes, maybe it’s your ugly dirty disgusting house… or your very unrealistic expectations for what the Market will bear for your very nice home in the City…

For a few days now, Mongohouse has been providing richer data on previous activity on listed homes. Was surprised by the number of detached that have been trying to sell for past 6 months to year in certain North York pockets. Notice the same for detached in the areas that you keep an eye on? Do tell.

It’s about time TREB lost their stranglehold on data. Long long long overdue.
I'm seeing the same thing in North York.

Some areas are getting crushed. This was originally listed (maybe 4 months ago?) at $2.888M, dropped a few times and ended up selling for $2.2M. I heard the seller needed out and that a realtor (maybe the listing agent, not sure) bought it.

https://www.mongohouse.com/soldrecords/ ... bf0fbf3d2a

I never saw the inside but a similar sized and aged house sold for $2.8M in the summer.

Anybody know what they paid for it?

Easy come, easy go.
Member
May 9, 2017
376 posts
409 upvotes
icantfigureoutausername wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 9:59 am
your link above doesn't open.
It should eventually. Mongohouse really slow today. I just tried and it took about 30 seconds to open.
Sr. Member
Aug 19, 2016
867 posts
310 upvotes
Jungle, I agree with most/all of your views.

I am just wondering, what is your day job? Let's hope you are not someone with a computer living in your parents' basement.

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