Real Estate

Locked: When will we know that TO/GTA real estate has bottomed?

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 16th, 2018 10:50 am
Sr. Member
Feb 21, 2010
696 posts
155 upvotes
Scarborough
Wasn’t the limit 50k usd person last year? So dropped to 15k usd?
ud8077 wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 12:10 am
It's going to be a lot harder to get money out of China.

New rules were just introduced in end of December 2017 by China and went into effect January 2018.

"Under the new rules individuals will be allowed to withdraw a maximum of 100,000 yuan (US$15,000) a year, regardless of how many separate bank accounts or ATM cards they have, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement released on Saturday.
"Some Chinese had been found to have used a large number of ATM cards to withdraw sums of cash overseas that far exceeded what was needed for “normal consumption”, according to the regulator."

It also warned Chinese not to try evading the rules. “People should not borrow other people’s bank cards or lend them to others to help get around the regulation,” the statement said."

source: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... -bank-card

Chinese capital controls send tremor through Australian property.

"The homes were mostly being sold by Chinese investors unable to make settlement on their investments as Beijing cracks down on money flowing out of China and restrictions on Australian banks lending to foreign investors bite, the company behind the tour said.

“Getting money out of China is very hard now. That’s a big factor for these discounts,” said Property Direct founder David Beard, who sold some two-bedroom units on the bus tour at 15-20 percent lower than list prices."

source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKBN1E136S
Member
Jun 19, 2017
430 posts
655 upvotes
Sydney is in a RE bubble too, if not the largest in the world. Huge foreign buyer influence.

Comparing Toronto and Sydney today is akin to saying that the NYSE hadn't grown as much as the Nasdaq in the dotcom bubble in 99, therefore it still had room to run.
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
1370 posts
529 upvotes
OTTAWA
JayLove06 wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 7:41 am
I think that's what Torontonians aren't consisering. We are cheap compared to other world-class cities. People really think they're going to be able to find a cheap house in a growing world class city. We are transforming right now and I think some people still see Toronto as a large town. Nah, we're a booming city.
I am relatively bullish on Toronto but Toronto is really not in the same league as these other world-class cities. Sydney is a good comparator except without the beaches but London, New York, Hong Kong are in a completely different class than Toronto.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 29, 2008
6118 posts
1603 upvotes
fogetmylogin wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 8:37 am
I am relatively bullish on Toronto but Toronto is really not in the same league as these other world-class cities. Sydney is a good comparator except without the beaches but London, New York, Hong Kong are in a completely different class than Toronto.
Never compared London to Toronto but there is no denying that Toronto is transitioning and if it’s not world class yet it’s cerainky not far from it. The problem with Toronto is it’s cirizens do not appreciate it enough. Have people visiting from all over the world and the feedback is always positive.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
5082 posts
4701 upvotes
Toronto
JayLove06 wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 9:01 am
Never compared London to Toronto but there is no denying that Toronto is transitioning and if it’s not world class yet it’s cerainky not far from it. The problem with Toronto is it’s cirizens do not appreciate it enough. Have people visiting from all over the world and the feedback is always positive.
I think the majority of people living in the city love it and appreciate everything about it. They even pay a premium to do so. The only people you get who are angry about it are people who can't afford to live comfortably. Plus a lot of people on forms talking negatively about Toronto aren't actually from it. A lot of people around Canada despise Toronto.
Deal Addict
Jan 17, 2006
1337 posts
1113 upvotes
Toronto
ud8077 wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 12:10 am
It's going to be a lot harder to get money out of China.

New rules were just introduced in end of December 2017 by China and went into effect January 2018.

"Under the new rules individuals will be allowed to withdraw a maximum of 100,000 yuan (US$15,000) a year, regardless of how many separate bank accounts or ATM cards they have, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement released on Saturday.
"Some Chinese had been found to have used a large number of ATM cards to withdraw sums of cash overseas that far exceeded what was needed for “normal consumption”, according to the regulator."

It also warned Chinese not to try evading the rules. “People should not borrow other people’s bank cards or lend them to others to help get around the regulation,” the statement said."

source: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... -bank-card

Chinese capital controls send tremor through Australian property.

"The homes were mostly being sold by Chinese investors unable to make settlement on their investments as Beijing cracks down on money flowing out of China and restrictions on Australian banks lending to foreign investors bite, the company behind the tour said.

“Getting money out of China is very hard now. That’s a big factor for these discounts,” said Property Direct founder David Beard, who sold some two-bedroom units on the bus tour at 15-20 percent lower than list prices."

source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKBN1E136S
Your first link says about outflow restrictions and it is being lifted now.
Second link says about 15K withdrawal limit while abroad, so using foreign bank or atm, nothing about transferring money and making payments.
Did you read it yourself?
Member
May 2, 2017
270 posts
408 upvotes
ilim wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 9:13 am
Your first link says about outflow restrictions and it is being lifted now.
Second link says about 15K withdrawal limit while abroad, so using foreign bank or atm, nothing about transferring money and making payments.
Did you read it yourself?
what is your source that capital restrictions are being lifted now? that article had to do with people trying to get money out and how china is clamping down on people on that end by making it little harder.

as for the second article there were new rules put in like july any transfer over 10k had to be reported..
there is a new limit is on 15k on each individual who withdraws money abroad. before one person would have multiple cards to take out 15k so much harder now.

"But analysts think that proportion could fall as Chinese investors struggle to move money out of the mainland after Beijing this year imposed a curb on “irrational investment overseas” and clamped down on individuals transferring funds internationally.

Regulations only allow Chinese nationals a foreign exchange quota of $50,000 a year and since July, the nation’s banks have been required to report any overseas transfers by individuals of $10,000 or more."
Deal Addict
Jan 17, 2006
1337 posts
1113 upvotes
Toronto
ud8077 wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 9:21 am
what is your source that capital restrictions are being lifted now?

as for the second article there were new rules put in like july any transfer over 10k had to be reported..
the new limit is on 15k withdrawal from people living abroad before people would have multiple cards to take out 15k so much harder now.
"But analysts think that proportion could fall as Chinese investors struggle to move money out of the mainland after Beijing this year imposed a curb on “irrational investment overseas” and clamped down on individuals transferring funds internationally.

Regulations only allow Chinese nationals a foreign exchange quota of $50,000 a year and since July, the nation’s banks have been required to report any overseas transfers by individuals of $10,000 or more."
So yeah, what you are referring here is from different story, nobody buys houses by withdrawing cash from ATM while touring.

https://therealdeal.com/2018/01/16/is-c ... urge-back/

And now there is even more appeal to transfer money to Canada, second top country for living after Switzerland.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countr ... -the-world
Member
May 2, 2017
270 posts
408 upvotes
ilim wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 9:31 am
So yeah, what you are referring here is from different story, nobody buys houses by withdrawing cash from ATM while touring.

https://therealdeal.com/2018/01/16/is-c ... urge-back/

And now there is even more appeal to transfer money to Canada, second top country for living after Switzerland.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countr ... -the-world
The article you posted doesn't say anything about capital restrictions being lifted.

It says "but some observers expect capital controls to be lifted in 2018."

That is pure speculation and also the website is also a pro real estate "news" website.
Newbie
Mar 9, 2009
20 posts
19 upvotes
Toronto
rjg4235 wrote:
Jan 22nd, 2018 11:38 am
Mongohouse is updated to the 19th and has a detailed list of every sale. It shows condos, detached and towns up MoM.
So, Mongo not accurate, complete numbers show price drop for first half of Jan + gap between supply and demand growing fast. Big takeaway from last graph Zolo, clear drop for all home types, incl condos which were holdout til late last year. Clear drop for condos, wow, not surprised tho. Investors looking for cap gains have fled. Investors unloading neg cash flow units onto market. If current trend continues til spring, yoy decline will look Nasty Nasty. Liquidity a huge problem. Getting worse by the week it seems. B20 is real, peeps don’t have enough cash, and worried about paying back debt in higher interest environment. Course, some pockets (high demand + rich) not doing as bad.

If ur looking to sell ur condo, my 2 cents, best get it on the market asap, will be very crowded come spring.
Sr. Member
Sep 14, 2007
766 posts
205 upvotes
Qrewpt wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 8:17 am
Sydney is in a RE bubble too, if not the largest in the world. Huge foreign buyer influence.

Comparing Toronto and Sydney today is akin to saying that the NYSE hadn't grown as much as the Nasdaq in the dotcom bubble in 99, therefore it still had room to run.
I believe Australia, London and a few other countries experienced RE bubbles when the Chinese Capital outflow policy was not implemented. Once it began, all of those desired countries instantly saw a halt. I agree with others in that Canadians don't have a strong sense of nationalistic pride, the way other countries do. All Canadians came from somewhere else, and the the country itself prides itself on inviting people from around the world. Look at the closed nations with years of history, the amount of pride in being one of their citizens is much greater than our own. In that sense, we really underestimate how great of a country Canada is on the world scale. Even I think Australia is better cause it's like Canada but with better temperature all year round, and tons of great outdoor activities. The opinion of Canada between its own citizens and those from other countries is starkly different. Everyone outside thinks Canada is one of the best places to be. It's no coincidence there are all these examples of people mentioning knowing somebody from outside of Canada visiting and wondering why we think we have a RE bubble or why Toronto isn't world class.
Newbie
Mar 9, 2009
20 posts
19 upvotes
Toronto
joepipe wrote:
Jan 17th, 2018 5:09 pm
Sold in Feb 2017 right around the peak , renting right now and collecting dividends from investments to pay for it....quite content with my holding pattern for now..

Im considering buying in Don Mills again when prices are about 20-30% lower from here....bungs are selling for $1.2 to 1.3 million now if outdated , roughly
$500k drop since I sold in February....I still think theres lots of room to drop from here to under a million, im looking for another property to buy and fix up....

Also talked to a few normally busy realtor friends and they are going broke with no commission cheques in months...they are worried this might last
for years...

Theres still quite a few sellers with ridiculous asking prices sitting for months....have a look at this ground floor condo...2000 sq ft
and $2268 monthly maintenance fee https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Sing ... -Don-Mills

The hot money is gone from this market, the rate hikes and B20 rules will just make it worse

This wont help either...

https://www.chinamoneynetwork.com/2018/ ... ts-control
Good on u bud. Nice to be liquid at a time like this. Once/twice in a lifetime opportunity. Make it count. Why did u decide to sell last yr? Timed, or coincidence that u caught the top? How long did u own ur house for? Thanks.
Deal Addict
Jan 17, 2006
1337 posts
1113 upvotes
Toronto
yeonnie wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 10:11 am
So, Mongo not accurate, complete numbers show price drop for first half of Jan + gap between supply and demand growing fast. Big takeaway from last graph Zolo, clear drop for all home types, incl condos which were holdout til late last year. Clear drop for condos, wow, not surprised tho. Investors looking for cap gains have fled. Investors unloading neg cash flow units onto market. If current trend continues til spring, yoy decline will look Nasty Nasty. Liquidity a huge problem. Getting worse by the week it seems. B20 is real, peeps don’t have enough cash, and worried about paying back debt in higher interest environment. Course, some pockets (high demand + rich) not doing as bad.

If ur looking to sell ur condo, my 2 cents, best get it on the market asap, will be very crowded come spring.
HaHa, yeonnie single-handedly trying to cause fire sale, so he would have a chance.

According to your favorite Zolo, nothing drastic happening, see attached screenshot of prices for condo in Toronto, looks they are all green and up around 20%, what is going on yeonnie.
Also by just watching the real sales in Toronto in mongo I can observe that if price is moving anywhere it is up in Toronto.
Numbers of sales are down but numbers of listings as well. In fact one bedroom condos active listings are down 3 percent according to Zolo.
Ratios listings to sale and number of days are steady as well.

Nice try yeonnie.
Also noticed yeonnie's style of writing reminds of joepipe so much and coincidentally yeonnie keep prising joepipe for selling his imaginary house on peak, sweet couple.

condo_toronto.png
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
5082 posts
4701 upvotes
Toronto
yeonnie wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 10:11 am
So, Mongo not accurate, complete numbers show price drop for first half of Jan + gap between supply and demand growing fast. Big takeaway from last graph Zolo, clear drop for all home types, incl condos which were holdout til late last year. Clear drop for condos, wow, not surprised tho. Investors looking for cap gains have fled. Investors unloading neg cash flow units onto market. If current trend continues til spring, yoy decline will look Nasty Nasty. Liquidity a huge problem. Getting worse by the week it seems. B20 is real, peeps don’t have enough cash, and worried about paying back debt in higher interest environment. Course, some pockets (high demand + rich) not doing as bad.

If ur looking to sell ur condo, my 2 cents, best get it on the market asap, will be very crowded come spring.
I'm not really worried about it the area it's in has no inventory and is in high demand. It's still hitting new all time highs every month when a new unit sells. Also I think the condo market will benefit from a decrease in affordability. There is historic precedence for houses and condos to be closer in price than they are now. Regardless of what all the Apocalypse preachers on here rant about most people still want to own their home.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
5082 posts
4701 upvotes
Toronto
ilim wrote:
Jan 23rd, 2018 10:34 am
HaHa, yeonnie single-handedly trying to cause fire sale, so he would have a chance.

According to your favorite Zolo, nothing drastic happening, see attached screenshot of prices for condo in Toronto, looks they are all green and up around 20%, what is going on yeonnie.
Also by just watching the real sales in Toronto in mongo I can observe that if price is moving anywhere it is up in Toronto.
Numbers of sales are down but numbers of listings as well. In fact one bedroom condos active listings are down 3 percent according to Zolo.
Ratios listings to sale and number of days are steady as well.

Nice try yeonnie.
Also noticed yeonnie's style of writing reminds of joepipe so much and coincidentally yeonnie keep prising joepipe for selling his imaginary house on peak, sweet couple.


condo_toronto.png
I don't understand people on this forum, they must have short term memories. How anyone can look at condos being $500k and not realize they are up a lot blows my mind. Even a year ago you could get them for $400k, 2 years ago they were $350k. Everyone was GUARANTEEING they would be down 30% last year, still hasn't happened so now it's back to the old yea but any day now they'll go down.

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