Real Estate

When will we know that TO/GTA real estate has bottomed?

  • Last Updated:
  • Dec 16th, 2017 10:08 pm
Jr. Member
Jan 15, 2010
152 posts
112 upvotes
Toronto
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 5th, 2017 1:11 pm
Couldn't agree more.

So, November TREB numbers are out,

TREB MLS average price
Sept 775K
Oct 780K
Nov 761K

TO detached
Sept 1.355M
Oct 1.287M
Nov 1.276M

TO apt condo
Sept 554K
Oct 555K
Nov 555K

Of note, active listings remain high. Anticipate that months of inventory (listings/sales) will worsen in January and February.

The sometimes elephant in the room- poor liquidity for detached. But for the most desirable homes, many sellers are having a very difficult time selling (listings languishing for months/ multiple re-listings etc…). TREB stats don't reflect this. Not uncommon to find homes that have been in and out of the market for the past year trying to sell unsuccessfully. Not a great situation to be in when you are unable liquidate your most valuable asset in a timely fashion.
Condo prices finally leveling off it seems.
[OP]
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
104 posts
153 upvotes
No on likes to be caught with their pants down. As a result of Laurentian/ Home Capital/ B20, banks are sooo much more stringent now (have you talked to your bank or broker about money lately??) Resulting in less money flowing to fewer qualified borrowers. Will be worse in January. Money does make the world go round.

Speaking of which, Mortgage Professionals Canada just completed their spring survey and opined that come January, buyers will be forced to spend on average 5-7.5% less on a home (my rough calculation). On top of that 6.5 to 7% of all home buyers will not be able to make any purchase at all. How will that affect Mr. Market early next year?? I see a number of possibilities, but a rebound is not one of them.

Can download the MPC report from site below,

https://mortgageproscan.ca/en/post/consumer-survey

I understand that MPC pushed back hard against the new B20 before it was implemented.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1888 posts
1702 upvotes
Toronto
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 12:58 pm
No on likes to be caught with their pants down. As a result of Laurentian/ Home Capital/ B20, banks are sooo much more stringent now (have you talked to your bank or broker about money lately??) Resulting in less money flowing to fewer qualified borrowers. Will be worse in January. Money does make the world go round.

Speaking of which, Mortgage Professionals Canada just completed their spring survey and opined that come January, buyers will be forced to spend on average 5-7.5% less on a home (my rough calculation). On top of that 6.5 to 7% of all home buyers will not be able to make any purchase at all. How will that affect Mr. Market early next year?? I see a number of possibilities, but a rebound is not one of them.

Can download the MPC report from site below,

https://mortgageproscan.ca/en/post/consumer-survey

I understand that MPC pushed back hard against the new B20 before it was implemented.
How will this impact other markets? If people can afford less will they buy cheaper properties or rent? If they buy cheaper properties will condos start surging again? If they rent will that drive up rent prices? I don't think it can have a linear impact of dragging everything down. Especially considering recent wage and employment info plus min wage increase.

Just thinking about if what you say is true. That means more people are working, making more and the floor is rising. Add in less people buying and those that are will be going cheaper. To me this would indicate rental and condo markets about to surge. Ironically this is what most investors are in and care about. Price of condos and how much rent they get. It would actually have double the impact. More intrinsic demand for condos and a higher return from rent.
[OP]
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
104 posts
153 upvotes
NotRobot wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 9:52 am
I'm seeing the same thing in North York.

Some areas are getting crushed. This was originally listed (maybe 4 months ago?) at $2.888M, dropped a few times and ended up selling for $2.2M. I heard the seller needed out and that a realtor (maybe the listing agent, not sure) bought it.

https://www.mongohouse.com/soldrecords/ ... bf0fbf3d2a

I never saw the inside but a similar sized and aged house sold for $2.8M in the summer.

Anybody know what they paid for it?

Easy come, easy go.
Yes, easy come, easy go.

308 Connaught appears to have been bought Sept 2014 for $922 500. Tear down and rebuild? A beautiful abode if I may say so.

Yes, chasing prices is rampant. I am surprised by the number of homes that currently are listed at summer prices. Similarly, during the summer I was surprised by the number of homes listed at or near April prices. Although the market was crowded, it actually wasn’t for those that were priced reasonably. Reasonably priced homes during the summer fetched very good sums (early 2017 prices). Many sellers that chased prices over the summer had to settle for much less or are still trying to sell. I wouldn't be surprised if this behaviour continues into the New Year.

Human nature I guess. I read somewhere that most people materially overestimate what their assets are worth. Sometimes to their detriment.

Check out the price action on this York Mills domicile (since September 2016). Brace yourself, you may get dizzy.

https://www.mongohouse.com/newlistings/ ... 5f0cfacbae
Member
May 9, 2017
376 posts
409 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 1:16 pm
Yes, easy come, easy go.

308 Connaught appears to have been bought Sept 2014 for $922 500. Tear down and rebuild? A beautiful abode if I may say so.

Yes, chasing prices is rampant. I am surprised by the number of homes that currently are listed at summer prices. Similarly, during the summer I was surprised by the number of homes listed at or near April prices. Although the market was crowded, it actually wasn’t for those that were priced reasonably. Reasonably priced homes during the summer fetched very good sums (early 2017 prices). Many sellers that chased prices over the summer had to settle for much less or are still trying to sell. I wouldn't be surprised if this behaviour continues into the New Year.

Human nature I guess. I read somewhere that most people materially overestimate what their assets are worth. Sometimes to their detriment.

Check out the price action on this York Mills domicile (since September 2016). Brace yourself, you may get dizzy.

https://www.mongohouse.com/newlistings/ ... 5f0cfacbae
Yes, it was a tear down and rebuild. I never noticed the price history at the bottom before.

Holy crap, that is a lot of price changes for the york mills house.
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2009
4660 posts
2338 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 1:16 pm
Yes, easy come, easy go.

308 Connaught appears to have been bought Sept 2014 for $922 500. Tear down and rebuild? A beautiful abode if I may say so.

Yes, chasing prices is rampant. I am surprised by the number of homes that currently are listed at summer prices. Similarly, during the summer I was surprised by the number of homes listed at or near April prices. Although the market was crowded, it actually wasn’t for those that were priced reasonably. Reasonably priced homes during the summer fetched very good sums (early 2017 prices). Many sellers that chased prices over the summer had to settle for much less or are still trying to sell. I wouldn't be surprised if this behaviour continues into the New Year.

Human nature I guess. I read somewhere that most people materially overestimate what their assets are worth. Sometimes to their detriment.

Check out the price action on this York Mills domicile (since September 2016). Brace yourself, you may get dizzy.

https://www.mongohouse.com/newlistings/ ... 5f0cfacbae


So what’s your plan since you love looking at mongo house a lot you planning on buying a house?
Sr. Member
Aug 19, 2016
867 posts
310 upvotes
Houses in my area are still selling for $1.2 million. Man, and I thought it went sub of 1 million already.
Sr. Member
Jan 17, 2006
617 posts
339 upvotes
Toronto
Sanyo wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:30 pm
So what’s your plan since you love looking at mongo house a lot you planning on buying a house?
Nah, he can't, he likes to watch though.
Deal Addict
Jun 11, 2005
2401 posts
216 upvotes
CollegeGraduate wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 10:41 am
Jungle, I agree with most/all of your views.

I am just wondering, what is your day job? Let's hope you are not someone with a computer living in your parents' basement.
IIRC, he does not live in his parents' basement. However, his wife made the best financial decision to date for the two of them because she wanted to buy a house (which they did in the Durham region).
Deal Addict
Jun 11, 2005
2401 posts
216 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 1:16 pm
Yes, easy come, easy go.

308 Connaught appears to have been bought Sept 2014 for $922 500. Tear down and rebuild? A beautiful abode if I may say so.

Yes, chasing prices is rampant. I am surprised by the number of homes that currently are listed at summer prices. Similarly, during the summer I was surprised by the number of homes listed at or near April prices. Although the market was crowded, it actually wasn’t for those that were priced reasonably. Reasonably priced homes during the summer fetched very good sums (early 2017 prices). Many sellers that chased prices over the summer had to settle for much less or are still trying to sell. I wouldn't be surprised if this behaviour continues into the New Year.

Human nature I guess. I read somewhere that most people materially overestimate what their assets are worth. Sometimes to their detriment.

Check out the price action on this York Mills domicile (since September 2016). Brace yourself, you may get dizzy.

https://www.mongohouse.com/newlistings/ ... 5f0cfacbae
308 Connaught is in an average school district. The question is whether $2.8M was the market value earlier in the year. Can't say they got crushed just because the listing price was high. Where was the $2.8M comparable located, and how similar are the specs?

OTOH Chipstead is quite dated.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Mar 31, 2008
9644 posts
1282 upvotes
Toronto
There's going to be overhand in the GTA for sure for along time.

But Toronto proper, still staying strong. That's due to fundamental demand. As long as the economy is stable, it'll stay that way. There will always be people who afford a mortgage at any level. Expectations just get adjusted downward which is what has happened over the years. But guess what, that 850K place nicely renovated IN the city.. always going to go.
Member
May 9, 2017
376 posts
409 upvotes
mudd_stuffin wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 3:58 pm
308 Connaught is in an average school district. The question is whether $2.8M was the market value earlier in the year. Can't say they got crushed just because the listing price was high. Where was the $2.8M comparable located, and how similar are the specs?

OTOH Chipstead is quite dated.
This was the comparable I was speaking about that sold for 2.8M in August.

https://www.mongohouse.com/soldrecords/ ... 53aa23c128

184 Homewood has better landscaping but is on a corner lot. No idea how the insides compare.

A 600,000 difference is a huge difference in 3-4 months.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1888 posts
1702 upvotes
Toronto
Any RE agents want to chime in about how December is going? I think this is the first time Zolo is showing a decline in inventory with increasing sales MoM in awhile. Plus it is showing house sales down only 8%, condos even and townhouse sales up 12%. Plus a positive MoM change in average sale price.
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Dec 7th, 2017 9:12 am
Any RE agents want to chime in about how December is going? I think this is the first time Zolo is showing a decline in inventory with increasing sales MoM in awhile. Plus it is showing house sales down only 8%, condos even and townhouse sales up 12%. Plus a positive MoM change in average sale price.
Wouldn't looking at m/m right now include most of nov?
Might want to look at 1 week data using mongohouse?

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