Real Estate

Locked: When will we know that TO/GTA real estate has bottomed?

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 16th, 2018 10:50 am
Penalty Box
User avatar
Aug 11, 2005
3786 posts
1134 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Feb 1st, 2018 11:47 am
Really because 3 bedroom houses in Toronto are up 12% YoY and 1/2 bedroom condos are up 21 & 24% respectively. This isn't an opinion it's a quantifiable and verifiable fact.

Everyone celebrating the average being down should look at a starter home in their neighborhood.
Back to 2014 prices. OUCH

Image
google NotDoug
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4455 posts
4154 upvotes
Toronto
Luckyinfil wrote:
Feb 1st, 2018 1:28 pm
Back to 2014 prices. OUCH
Lol you really think prices are the same as 2014 because 1 house sold for the same? I can find you 100 that sold for more, see how fast I replied, it's because the first one I checked was more.

Image
upload your photo
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
1771 posts
736 upvotes
Houston, TX
Luckyinfil wrote:
Feb 1st, 2018 1:28 pm
Back to 2014 prices. OUCH

Image
Would you mind to copy this one to ALL RE threads?
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
1771 posts
736 upvotes
Houston, TX
Furcorn wrote:
Jan 31st, 2018 9:58 pm
The data totally does not support this silly statement.
3bdr THs in 500-800k range are selling quite good, many on SPring 2017 level in part of 905 I'm tracking (Burlington/Oakville)
However 905 is too big to draw a conclusion , and some areas like Stouville definitely could slump (compared to peak). As well as 1M-2M homes. But hardly any fall back to 2014 as some one dreamed.
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
Newbie
Mar 9, 2009
20 posts
19 upvotes
Toronto
27 new listings for detached in TO in the wee hours, Midnight Fri, accrdng to Zolo. New listings for detached are usually dead late week/ we. Reasons/ explanation?

Stock markets really spooked this week. Higher prob. will see higher interest/mortgage rates sooner rather than later??

Thoughts on new listings/ inventory levels over next several mos? That TREB poll found that sig. higher numbers plan to sell and rent this yr...
Newbie
Jan 19, 2018
55 posts
115 upvotes
1. US 10 year bond rate at 2.85% if it breaks 3.00% it will lead to bear market in stock and mass asset reallocation.
2. Inflation is back, wage growth came in at +0.3% monthly or 3.6% yearly. They also revised December number up.
3. US will hike 4 times, March, June, Sept and December.

Do not focus on Canada, The moon orbits the earth. Unless Canadians want to pay 5.99 for broccoli they have to follow and they always have.
Inflation will create a market that few understand except the educated. Most people will serve as liquidity for smart money to exit.

Who cares what is happening in some 905 region? The cost of borrowing be will double what it was in June 2017 by December 2018. 2%-->4%
The macro environment has changed. Do not focus on the micro.
June 2016 risk-free return on $1M = 15,000 Now = $25,000 and trending toward $35,000.
Last edited by lydia82 on Feb 3rd, 2018 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Fanatic
May 31, 2007
5000 posts
2109 upvotes
yeonnie wrote:
Feb 3rd, 2018 11:06 am
27 new listings for detached in TO in the wee hours, Midnight Fri, accrdng to Zolo. New listings for detached are usually dead late week/ we. Reasons/ explanation?

Stock markets really spooked this week. Higher prob. will see higher interest/mortgage rates sooner rather than later??

Thoughts on new listings/ inventory levels over next several mos? That TREB poll found that sig. higher numbers plan to sell and rent this yr...
IMO we need to see the next few months on how OFSI plays out. By that time it will be spring market, need to see if some buyers come back.
Many people probably had pre-approval thus the Dec / Jan rush to "get in" might have bumped sales.

All else told, it's not looking good for detach. Inventory is high and sales are down. Likely more price correction will occur unless some demand comes back. But I don't think it will because of ofsi/interest rate and negative spring headline/ sentiment.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
6477 posts
3602 upvotes
Jungle wrote:
Feb 3rd, 2018 12:27 pm
IMO we need to see the next few months on how OFSI plays out. By that time it will be spring market, need to see if some buyers come back.
Many people probably had pre-approval thus the Dec / Jan rush to "get in" might have bumped sales.

All else told, it's not looking good for detach. Inventory is high and sales are down. Likely more price correction will occur unless some demand comes back. But I don't think it will because of ofsi/interest rate and negative spring headline/ sentiment.
Let’s see we did have sell outs last week in a few projects so demand is still there. No one knows what the spring will hold. With the big regulations out of the way, the psychology may get better later this year. Any market that has been hit with multiple regulations in one year is going to slow down... and inventory is lower than last summers huge inventory output into the market. If inventory doesn’t get elevated we should have a much more balanced market this year then the pop and drop of certain segments like last year.

We’re also not hearing much more about buyers walking away from deposits like we were last summer which means buyers have a chance to breathe when they make an offer and people see it more fair value in the market now.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Oct 13, 2008
2614 posts
513 upvotes
Oshawa
inferiorplanet wrote:
Dec 3rd, 2017 12:46 pm
Headwinds continue to swirl in our great City.

Just as it very difficult to accurately predict exactly when peak values will hit, it is tricky to predict when prices will bottom. That doesn't prevent us from trying though.

What will we need to see to recognize that the bottom has arrived? (I am referring to the bottoming of the benchmark price of a home- all types- in Toronto and GTA)

Not sure how long or how much the fall will be, but I opine that the fall will continue throughout 2018. Why? Combination of the following factors.

OSFI broad stress test to hit in January.

We are just at the beginning of a tightening cycle. There is a close correlation between lowering rates and increases in prices in TO. To think that the converse does not apply is naive.

Toronto is the most overvalued market in the world according to UBS. Household debt has never been higher. Many households have their heads just above water and will struggle with small increases in rates.

Big money/ investment and flippers are running for the hills.

Money is getting much more expensive and difficult to access. Many deals falling apart in Nov because of financing issues according to my agents and banker. When January comes, the situation will get even worse.

Now that MLS data cannot be hoarded by TREB, buyers can make more informed and educated decisions, and will be less likely to overpay.

So, what will the bottom look like? My opinion, when prices in relation to local incomes recede to more reasonable levels, and we are near the top of the interest tightening cycle. I see a noticeable drop in prices early in the New Year (stress test), then a slow melt until the two markers noted are hit.

Your thoughts are welcome and appreciated.
Nobody will know. Everyone can estimate or guess.

When will it hit bottom? That's just like asking when gas prices will drop.

Come on. To each his own. Buy when you want and buy what you can afford.

If you currently have a property and want to sell and want to buy another ... you will sell at a lower price but also buy at a lower price. If you want to sell at top dollar, your buy will be at a higher price as well.

This is exactly like the stock market! Everybody says buy low, sell high. When is it? YOUR CHOICE! NOT EVEN AN ANALYST IS RIGHT!

And by the way ... it's thanks to the analysts that keep on blurting out useless stats and fake facts that has affected the RE market! And it's those idiots who believe in what they say!
Stress is caused by NOT fishing enough.
JDM ONLY! No North American CRAP!
Megabass, Imakatsu, Jackall, GanCraft, OSP, EverGreen, YGK, Toray, Sunline, Nories, Shimano, Daiwa RULES!
EVA Air Rocks ... Air Canada SUCKS!
Newbie
Mar 9, 2009
20 posts
19 upvotes
Toronto
yeonnie wrote:
Feb 3rd, 2018 11:06 am
27 new listings for detached in TO in the wee hours, Midnight Fri, accrdng to Zolo. New listings for detached are usually dead late week/ we. Reasons/ explanation?

Stock markets really spooked this week. Higher prob. will see higher interest/mortgage rates sooner rather than later??

Thoughts on new listings/ inventory levels over next several mos? That TREB poll found that sig. higher numbers plan to sell and rent this yr...
Seems like a lot of new listings today as well. Would appear that many sellers trying to jump in ahead of spring market. Jan sales numbers poor? Seems like only small numbers of well heeled are buying now. Masses sitting out. Seems inevitable that inventory will sig outpace sales next few mos. Interesting.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4455 posts
4154 upvotes
Toronto
yeonnie wrote:
Feb 6th, 2018 12:07 pm
Seems like a lot of new listings today as well. Would appear that many sellers trying to jump in ahead of spring market. Jan sales numbers poor? Seems like only small numbers of well heeled are buying now. Masses sitting out. Seems inevitable that inventory will sig outpace sales next few mos. Interesting.
Months of inventory is still under 3, very low.
Deal Fanatic
May 1, 2012
7511 posts
4077 upvotes
Markham
When all the bears out there have finally purchased a home on $30k income, that's when we've bottomed.
[OP]
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
129 posts
171 upvotes
TREB 2018 January numbers,

TREB MLS average price
Apr 921K
Sept 775K
Oct 780K
Nov 761K
Dec 735K
Jan 736K

TO avg. detached
Apr 1.578M
Sept 1.355M
Oct 1.287M
Nov 1.276M
Dec 1.250M
Jan 1.283M

TO avg. apt condo
Apr 578K
Sept 554K
Oct 555K
Nov 555K
Dec 532K
Jan 543K

Prices held up nicely in Jan but sales underwhelming. Billion $ question, how much new supply will spill on to the market and how much of it will be bought over the next few months...
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4455 posts
4154 upvotes
Toronto
inferiorplanet wrote:
Feb 6th, 2018 4:48 pm
Prices held up nicely in Jan but sales underwhelming. Billion $ question, how much new supply will spill on to the market and how much of it will be bought over the next few months...
Lol never thought I'd actually agree with you on something.

I think there are 2 parts to it. People who are scared and want to sell vs people who don't want to deal with selling in a slow market. One side might heavily out weight the other or it may be a wash. I'm really just starting to think 2018 will be a dull year. I actually wanted to sell one of rental properties and go mortgage free on primary residence but the thought of trying to sell right now is a head ache so I'll probably just rent it out again.
Member
Sep 2, 2005
206 posts
38 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Feb 6th, 2018 12:12 pm
Months of inventory is still under 3, very low.
Does months of inventory/it's implications smell like BS to anyone else?
A) It seems like there's been low active listings relative to sales for pretty much forever looking at TREB reports.
B) Basically every month new listings are higher/much higher than sales, but active listings remain fairly static.

Top