Real Estate

Locked: When will we know that TO/GTA real estate has bottomed?

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 16th, 2018 10:50 am
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4453 posts
4154 upvotes
Toronto
natefive wrote:
Feb 6th, 2018 5:30 pm
Does months of inventory/it's implications smell like BS to anyone else?
A) It seems like there's been low active listings relative to sales for pretty much forever looking at TREB reports.
B) Basically every month new listings are higher/much higher than sales, but active listings remain fairly static.
It's because if someone relists it 10 times they count each one as a new listing. Look at some recent sales and you can see a bunch have multiple listings. Plus add in people who couldn't get the price they wanted so they terminated the listing.

Also it is comparing to last year which had obscenely low numbers to begin with. 20% more than a smaller number is still a small number.

Also I think at one point we got to sub 1 month of inventory last year which is insane, so while 3 is still very low it's still a lot more than last year.
Sr. Member
Dec 4, 2016
799 posts
291 upvotes
natefive wrote:
Feb 6th, 2018 5:30 pm
Does months of inventory/it's implications smell like BS to anyone else?
A) It seems like there's been low active listings relative to sales for pretty much forever looking at TREB reports.
B) Basically every month new listings are higher/much higher than sales, but active listings remain fairly static.
TREB has been reporting low active listings relative to sales for "pretty much forever" because Toronto RE has been a booming market in recent memory. Dig up the reports from the last real downturn, and you will probably find large listings relative to sales. When oil price crashed, Alberta had pretty high MOI for a while.
Member
Sep 2, 2005
206 posts
38 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Feb 6th, 2018 6:05 pm
It's because if someone relists it 10 times they count each one as a new listing. Look at some recent sales and you can see a bunch have multiple listings. Plus add in people who couldn't get the price they wanted so they terminated the listing.

Also it is comparing to last year which had obscenely low numbers to begin with. 20% more than a smaller number is still a small number.

Also I think at one point we got to sub 1 month of inventory last year which is insane, so while 3 is still very low it's still a lot more than last year.
BlueSolstice wrote:
Feb 7th, 2018 11:37 am
TREB has been reporting low active listings relative to sales for "pretty much forever" because Toronto RE has been a booming market in recent memory. Dig up the reports from the last real downturn, and you will probably find large listings relative to sales. When oil price crashed, Alberta had pretty high MOI for a while.
Fair enough, month of inventory was reasonably high in Dec 2008 so I guess it's not rigged.
[OP]
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
129 posts
171 upvotes
We bought our dream house in 2018! As some may know, we sold summer last year as we felt that this would be a great time to ‘trade up’.

We were looking at homes that need work on premium lots (50 ft frontage) in good school districts (Earl Haig, York Mills, Lawrence Park, North Toronto).

Were patient, got everything on our wishlist, and a home in our top school district. Have much of purchase price in cash, so no financing condition in offer. B20 is definitely having an impact IMO. Fewer can play the game, less crowded when bidding on nice homes in good locations. That said, saw some premium builder’s lots in fab areas go for nasty prices recently. There were other offers on the house we got, but my sense is that they had financing conditions, so ours looked more attractive. Without B20, do feel it would have been a different ballgame. Could not have dreamed of making a trade like this before April 2017.

Observations for detached in TO. Lots of strength in modest homes on premium lots in good school districts, close to transit. Typically areas with very high average household incomes. Weakness where homes do not possess these characteristics.

Am surprised how well TO detached has held up in Jan. Also surprised that demand is not falling way behind supply in Feb for all home types (as per Zolo).

That said, should interest rates continue to increase throughout this year and next, as I expect them to, I cannot see how prices do not fall further over this period… If they don’t, my mind will be blown, and like a black hole this market will be defying gravity.
Sr. Member
May 9, 2017
750 posts
734 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Feb 12th, 2018 5:59 pm
We bought our dream house in 2018! As some may know, we sold summer last year as we felt that this would be a great time to ‘trade up’.

We were looking at homes that need work on premium lots (50 ft frontage) in good school districts (Earl Haig, York Mills, Lawrence Park, North Toronto).

Were patient, got everything on our wishlist, and a home in our top school district. Have much of purchase price in cash, so no financing condition in offer. B20 is definitely having an impact IMO. Fewer can play the game, less crowded when bidding on nice homes in good locations. That said, saw some premium builder’s lots in fab areas go for nasty prices recently. There were other offers on the house we got, but my sense is that they had financing conditions, so ours looked more attractive. Without B20, do feel it would have been a different ballgame. Could not have dreamed of making a trade like this before April 2017.

Observations for detached in TO. Lots of strength in modest homes on premium lots in good school districts, close to transit. Typically areas with very high average household incomes. Weakness where homes do not possess these characteristics.

Am surprised how well TO detached has held up in Jan. Also surprised that demand is not falling way behind supply in Feb for all home types (as per Zolo).

That said, should interest rates continue to increase throughout this year and next, as I expect them to, I cannot see how prices do not fall further over this period… If they don’t, my mind will be blown, and like a black hole this market will be defying gravity.
Congrats, those are great areas. I went to Earl Haig before it was good school haha.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4453 posts
4154 upvotes
Toronto
inferiorplanet wrote:
Feb 12th, 2018 5:59 pm
We bought our dream house in 2018! As some may know, we sold summer last year as we felt that this would be a great time to ‘trade up’.

We were looking at homes that need work on premium lots (50 ft frontage) in good school districts (Earl Haig, York Mills, Lawrence Park, North Toronto).

Were patient, got everything on our wishlist, and a home in our top school district. Have much of purchase price in cash, so no financing condition in offer. B20 is definitely having an impact IMO. Fewer can play the game, less crowded when bidding on nice homes in good locations. That said, saw some premium builder’s lots in fab areas go for nasty prices recently. There were other offers on the house we got, but my sense is that they had financing conditions, so ours looked more attractive. Without B20, do feel it would have been a different ballgame. Could not have dreamed of making a trade like this before April 2017.

Observations for detached in TO. Lots of strength in modest homes on premium lots in good school districts, close to transit. Typically areas with very high average household incomes. Weakness where homes do not possess these characteristics.

Am surprised how well TO detached has held up in Jan. Also surprised that demand is not falling way behind supply in Feb for all home types (as per Zolo).

That said, should interest rates continue to increase throughout this year and next, as I expect them to, I cannot see how prices do not fall further over this period… If they don’t, my mind will be blown, and like a black hole this market will be defying gravity.
Congrats.

I suspect as the dust settles from this government intervention more people who realize they can afford their dream home will jump on it. I know if I had missed the boat once I would be super paranoid about missing it again.
Deal Addict
Dec 27, 2006
1701 posts
716 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Feb 12th, 2018 5:59 pm
We bought our dream house in 2018! As some may know, we sold summer last year as we felt that this would be a great time to ‘trade up’.

We were looking at homes that need work on premium lots (50 ft frontage) in good school districts (Earl Haig, York Mills, Lawrence Park, North Toronto).

Were patient, got everything on our wishlist, and a home in our top school district. Have much of purchase price in cash, so no financing condition in offer. B20 is definitely having an impact IMO. Fewer can play the game, less crowded when bidding on nice homes in good locations. That said, saw some premium builder’s lots in fab areas go for nasty prices recently. There were other offers on the house we got, but my sense is that they had financing conditions, so ours looked more attractive. Without B20, do feel it would have been a different ballgame. Could not have dreamed of making a trade like this before April 2017.

Observations for detached in TO. Lots of strength in modest homes on premium lots in good school districts, close to transit. Typically areas with very high average household incomes. Weakness where homes do not possess these characteristics.

Am surprised how well TO detached has held up in Jan. Also surprised that demand is not falling way behind supply in Feb for all home types (as per Zolo).

That said, should interest rates continue to increase throughout this year and next, as I expect them to, I cannot see how prices do not fall further over this period… If they don’t, my mind will be blown, and like a black hole this market will be defying gravity.
Congrats on buying your dream house!
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
6477 posts
3602 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Feb 12th, 2018 5:59 pm
We bought our dream house in 2018! As some may know, we sold summer last year as we felt that this would be a great time to ‘trade up’.

We were looking at homes that need work on premium lots (50 ft frontage) in good school districts (Earl Haig, York Mills, Lawrence Park, North Toronto).

Were patient, got everything on our wishlist, and a home in our top school district. Have much of purchase price in cash, so no financing condition in offer. B20 is definitely having an impact IMO. Fewer can play the game, less crowded when bidding on nice homes in good locations. That said, saw some premium builder’s lots in fab areas go for nasty prices recently. There were other offers on the house we got, but my sense is that they had financing conditions, so ours looked more attractive. Without B20, do feel it would have been a different ballgame. Could not have dreamed of making a trade like this before April 2017.

Observations for detached in TO. Lots of strength in modest homes on premium lots in good school districts, close to transit. Typically areas with very high average household incomes. Weakness where homes do not possess these characteristics.

Am surprised how well TO detached has held up in Jan. Also surprised that demand is not falling way behind supply in Feb for all home types (as per Zolo).

That said, should interest rates continue to increase throughout this year and next, as I expect them to, I cannot see how prices do not fall further over this period… If they don’t, my mind will be blown, and like a black hole this market will be defying gravity.
Congrats great area. Many homes being built and basically being re-built. See good lots for $1.5 mil or and if re-done going for $3.5 to $5 mil... good flip potential as well in that area.
Newbie
Mar 9, 2009
20 posts
19 upvotes
Toronto
inferiorplanet wrote:
Feb 12th, 2018 5:59 pm
We bought our dream house in 2018! As some may know, we sold summer last year as we felt that this would be a great time to ‘trade up’.

We were looking at homes that need work on premium lots (50 ft frontage) in good school districts (Earl Haig, York Mills, Lawrence Park, North Toronto).

Were patient, got everything on our wishlist, and a home in our top school district. Have much of purchase price in cash, so no financing condition in offer. B20 is definitely having an impact IMO. Fewer can play the game, less crowded when bidding on nice homes in good locations. That said, saw some premium builder’s lots in fab areas go for nasty prices recently. There were other offers on the house we got, but my sense is that they had financing conditions, so ours looked more attractive. Without B20, do feel it would have been a different ballgame. Could not have dreamed of making a trade like this before April 2017.

Observations for detached in TO. Lots of strength in modest homes on premium lots in good school districts, close to transit. Typically areas with very high average household incomes. Weakness where homes do not possess these characteristics.

Am surprised how well TO detached has held up in Jan. Also surprised that demand is not falling way behind supply in Feb for all home types (as per Zolo).

That said, should interest rates continue to increase throughout this year and next, as I expect them to, I cannot see how prices do not fall further over this period… If they don’t, my mind will be blown, and like a black hole this market will be defying gravity.
Congrats. But I think you could have saved a couple hundred thousand (minimum) if you waited til later in the year. You know how long it takes to save 200K? Scary long. Primo locations tho.
Deal Addict
Jan 17, 2006
1200 posts
922 upvotes
Toronto
yeonnie wrote:
Feb 13th, 2018 10:36 am
Congrats. But I think you could have saved a couple hundred thousand (minimum) if you waited til later in the year. You know how long it takes to save 200K? Scary long. Primo locations tho.
I think you are wrong yeonnie, it is possible that you would miss opportunity to buy with discount if you wait and then it will 200K more expensive and you of course know how long it takes to save those 200k.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4453 posts
4154 upvotes
Toronto
ilim wrote:
Feb 13th, 2018 10:44 am
I think you are wrong yeonnie, it is possible that you would miss opportunity to buy with discount if you wait and then it will 200K more expensive and you of course know how long it takes to save those 200k.
That's the thing, no one is 100% sure what will happen. So really you are faced with a dilemma. Do you buy and risk overpaying $200k, or do you wait and risk never being able to afford your dream home. The concept of trying to time the market never sat well with me, it's a high stakes game you're playing at that point. And you know what they say about playing stupid games.
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2013
1429 posts
361 upvotes
Mississauga
yeonnie wrote:
Feb 13th, 2018 10:36 am
Congrats. But I think you could have saved a couple hundred thousand (minimum) if you waited til later in the year. You know how long it takes to save 200K? Scary long. Primo locations tho.
There's no beggars if everyone can foresee the future
Sr. Member
User avatar
Sep 24, 2012
734 posts
248 upvotes
Mississauga
inferiorplanet wrote:
Feb 12th, 2018 5:59 pm
We bought our dream house in 2018! As some may know, we sold summer last year as we felt that this would be a great time to ‘trade up’.

We were looking at homes that need work on premium lots (50 ft frontage) in good school districts (Earl Haig, York Mills, Lawrence Park, North Toronto).

Were patient, got everything on our wishlist, and a home in our top school district. Have much of purchase price in cash, so no financing condition in offer. B20 is definitely having an impact IMO. Fewer can play the game, less crowded when bidding on nice homes in good locations. That said, saw some premium builder’s lots in fab areas go for nasty prices recently. There were other offers on the house we got, but my sense is that they had financing conditions, so ours looked more attractive. Without B20, do feel it would have been a different ballgame. Could not have dreamed of making a trade like this before April 2017.

Observations for detached in TO. Lots of strength in modest homes on premium lots in good school districts, close to transit. Typically areas with very high average household incomes. Weakness where homes do not possess these characteristics.

Am surprised how well TO detached has held up in Jan. Also surprised that demand is not falling way behind supply in Feb for all home types (as per Zolo).

That said, should interest rates continue to increase throughout this year and next, as I expect them to, I cannot see how prices do not fall further over this period… If they don’t, my mind will be blown, and like a black hole this market will be defying gravity.
congratulations.. schools are too good here and wonderful area too but became very busy in the last couple of years.
am guessing you bought around yonge/bayview/sheppard area
Banned
Aug 28, 2017
301 posts
357 upvotes
yes, it bottomed lol
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4453 posts
4154 upvotes
Toronto
Rocko24 wrote:
Feb 13th, 2018 12:31 pm
yes, it bottomed lol
Really looks to me like it happened in August of last year

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