Who's buying RIM shares? And how much could it gain this year?

[dealsacc]

I've been waiting foooooooorever to upgrade my current BB phone. Won't buy one of those "toy" Apple products "bleckh". Almost went with a Samsung SIII, but work "strongly suggested" that I stay with BB, mainly for BBM purposes. I've reviewed the new phones, the OS, specs and can't wait for it to roll out. The features and specs are amazing. Apparently there are droves of people in my shoes. Feel free to discuss anything here, whether you plan to buy the phone, or not, invest in RIM shares, or not. I'll update info as much as I can like:

-Suggested secretly leaked MSRP of $620.00 for the BB Z10
-Up to 70% of the current 69 million BB subscribers are waiting to switch over to BB10 link
-CEO Thornston Heinz states that BB10 could lead RIM to the greatest tech comeback in history
-Carl Icahn is rumored to purchase a "substantial amount" of RIM shares
-The top 3 cell carriers in the US and Canada are embracing BB10
-Droves of Apple and Android fans will switch over to BB. The BB10 backed QNS OS runs fricken nuclear power plants, IPhones controls those novelty $30 helicopters lol

Or as always it could be a bust.....thoughts?

[Mark77]

BlackBerry isn't about the handset, its about all the enterprise back-end integration and the secure platform that is part of the overall architecture. The only reason why RIM gets another kick at the can here is because iOS and Android security is crap and the platforms are extremely difficult to adapt towards the enterprise environments' needs.

I have a beta testing friend in IT at one of the banks who has one; he states it is quite an impressive product that will definitely have no problem preserving the existing customer base in the enterprise space and put to rest most of the 'whining' from the staff about the lack of features of the existing BlackBerry phones.

Enterprise/government customers already on BlackBerry will buy these without hesitation and finally quel any delusions about moving to another platform. But I don't think they have a product here that can capture 'retail' customers.

[DarkMemoria]

I think their success will depend largely on their entry level BB10 phones.

They've lost a massive market share in North America, but they're doing well in many asian regions (especially where Apple and higher end Android products are prohibitively expensive or lacking in availibility).

I rarely see people in their 20s-30s using non-work related BBs, I just don't believe that they can make any type of surge in the demographic that is most likely to purchase expensive phones. The leaked specs and reviews seem to be positive but brand loyalty is such a strong selling point with phones (esp. with accessories, apps, restoration of existing setups) is difficult to look past for many people.

There is another RIM thread on page 2 that has quite a bit of discussion about the companies fundamentals. I am staying on the sidelines for this one - in any case it will extremely volatile in one direction or another.

[blammy]

IMO, their next phone will dictate their future. You better hope its good if you plan to buy and hold RIM stocks or it could be the next Nortel.

[DarkMemoria]

IMO, their next phone will dictate their future. You better hope its good if you plan to buy and hold RIM stocks or it could be the next Nortel.

[brunes]

I really hope you are wrong on the MSRP. IMO RIMM needs to price this phone at $400 or less, simmilar to what Google did with the Nexus 4.

They need to sell a CRAPLOAD of phones, and selling them only to current RIM owners is not enough. They need to bring BACK people who left RIM. They need to take the loss on the initial phone sales in order to beef up the ecosystem... if they want to attract developers then they need to unload a lot of handsets, and I hope they see that.

If this phone is priced north of $600, it will fail.

At any rate, I am up over 50% on my RIMM shares, as I planned... I plan to ditch them at some point in the next couple of days... I am not playing this roulette game.

[cn_habs]

The Dev Alpha is already a better smartphone than the iPhone and most technophiles don't dispute that.My top 2 concerns are the lack of stylish and coolness factor in RIM's brand image and the much smaller ecosystem.

I was actually thinking about creating a similar thread on here as well for some honest advice. It has been stuck around the 11.5 - 12/share area so I might pull the trigger soon and sell it on the 29th.

Holding it after launch takes balls of steel because most retail consumers aren't knowledgeable about newest technologies and buy the iPhone for the logo and the vast selection of apps.

[cjottawa]

Don't put any money at risk on individual company stock if you wouldn't want to lose it all.

What happens next for RIM is entirely speculation; maybe they'll go to $150 per share. Maybe they'll go back to $6 per share before the company is broken up and sold off. Nobody's got a crystal ball.

[Musabbir]

I agree with the poster above that RIM stock is completely dependent on speculation at this point. I do believe that it will go up a little bit more until jan 30 but what happens after that point, no one knows. If they do indeed sell well, and they dont have to sell like a S3 or iphone, just reasonable numbers, I think their stock will have a very good momentum upwards. But whether that happens or not, no one knows. Most people who bought below 8-9 probably have exited their positions already. The market is waiting for the next bit of news to decide what to do which is why its hovering at its current price point. I am considering a long position but with very little money as this might be a huge loss.

[dealsacc]

I really hope you are wrong on the MSRP. IMO RIMM needs to price this phone at $400 or less, simmilar to what Google did with the Nexus 4.

They need to sell a CRAPLOAD of phones, and selling them only to current RIM owners is not enough. They need to bring BACK people who left RIM. They need to take the loss on the initial phone sales in order to beef up the ecosystem... if they want to attract developers then they need to unload a lot of handsets, and I hope they see that.

If this phone is priced north of $600, it will fail.

At any rate, I am up over 50% on my RIMM shares, as I planned... I plan to ditch them at some point in the next couple of days... I am not playing this roulette game.

Bell is already running a preorder contest where they are giving away 5 phones for free upon launch date, msrp of $700

[putinwork2012]

They are focusing on Europe and Asia from what I've read. They have a strong presence in that market compared to North America.

I've bought a small position of RIMM shares at $10.80 and I might buy more.

Reason why I think RIMM stands a chance:
1) It's VERY different an innovative in terms of "gestures" and functionality for their new BB10 phone, compared to Apple and Samsung
2) People are getting tired of only have 2 choices. They want something different, CHANGE. The upgrades to Apple and Samsung phones have lost the WOW factor. Compare iPhone4s with iPhone5, S2 vs S3. Faster yes, but not innovative.

These 2 items make RIMM a good comeback option, IFFFFF, the specs are indeed that great and the product is solid as leaks suggest.

PS: I used to have the Bold 9000 and also 9900 which I ditched for an Iphone4S. I liked it for the first 6 months but now, I feel it is very limiting in what it can do. I will switch to BB10 if the phone is solid no doubt. I'm waiting for change.

[Musabbir]

What is also going to be important to drive consumer perception is "certain" apps. Whether you use them or not, apps like netflix, skype, facebook, maps, youtube, etc can make or break a product. Even if you have awesome specs and solid interface, if you cant do certain things because the apps are not made yet, critics are going to say that it is a solid phone but crippled due to service. Thats what happened to the playbook. I hope RIM is doing a good job on that front. Last I heard they were trying to do a lot of these things themselves so that they dont have to depend on other people. We will see.

[cn_habs]

Blackberry really needs to stick to its bread and butter. Focus on corporate clients. High security robustness. Stick with the physical key phones. They should not stray away from this. The moment RIM drops the security, robustness, and reliability of their phones is the moment you'd have to worry. And we all know that sometimes convenience, usability, and media are counter to the goals of making their system secure and robust. Consumers demand the former, businesses demand the later.

They need not forget that their original 'coolness' factor a decade ago came entirely because business users, wall street traders, and yuppies use it, which made the consumer want it. When they tried to do 'cool' phones for the consumer market, while at the same time not having the design and engineering talent to pull off a good designed phone, they failed miserably to apple who dominated them and them wasting a tonne of cash.

I like and use BB myself and not the Iphone. But seriously, the Dev Alpha looks pretty ugly. The iphone is definately better. Im being objective.

No doubt about that but the rumoured Z10 looks pretty slick to me:

[Mark77]

What is also going to be important to drive consumer perception is "certain" apps. Whether you use them or not, apps like netflix, skype, facebook, maps, youtube, etc can make or break a product. Even if you have awesome specs and solid interface, if you cant do certain things because the apps are not made yet, critics are going to say that it is a solid phone but crippled due to service. Thats what happened to the playbook. I hope RIM is doing a good job on that front. Last I heard they were trying to do a lot of these things themselves so that they dont have to depend on other people. We will see.

A lot of RIM's customers actually buy the phones because the users can't just willy-nilly use those apps you mention. And the carriers have pushed the BlackBerries, particularly in emerging markets, because they can ensure that their customers are not going to be massive bandwidth hogs in an environment where bandwidth is relatively scarce.

The people who 'complain' about the lack of functionality in previous RIM handsets, will now probably be 'complaining' that their enterprise IT teams and/or cell carriers have locked out Netflix or Skype functionality for various reasons (ie: in a secured environment, Skype has no place, and Netflix is just an expensive bandwidth hog!).

[squadz]

All of that is fine and dandy, but they need apps. #1 priority, and the reason they're behind the other phones.

(For reference, I'm a Blackberry supporter)