Who's buying RIM shares? And how much could it gain this year?

[boyoflondon]

Had no idea it's a US holiday today... Thanks

Martin Luther King day .. it is a full bank holiday in the states so all the banks, exchanges, government institutions are closed.

[Mantic]

I purchased about 3000 shares when it was at $7, now every day I see it jump on the TSX I want to sell but I don't. The problem is I know better.... lets see how much money I loose.

[svelten]

I purchased about 3000 shares when it was at $7, now every day I see it jump on the TSX I want to sell but I don't. The problem is I know better.... lets see how much money I loose.

You won't lose much. I didn't time my entry as good as you did but there's still much more money to be had on this one. Analysts keep changing their ratings with price targets in the high-teens and low 20s, and BB10 is having the same effect pre-launch as a new iPhone launch. After Jan 30th is anyone's guess...

[Musabbir]

Why dont you sell a portion of your gains...say a thousand or fifteen hundred shares. Selling 1500 of them means you will be over your original amount no matter what.

You won't lose much. I didn't time my entry as good as you did but there's still much more money to be had on this one. Analysts keep changing their ratings with price targets in the high-teens and low 20s, and BB10 is having the same effect pre-launch as a new iPhone launch. After Jan 30th is anyone's guess...

[Vitalogy80]

Funny how scrolling back through some of the RIMM threads reveals tons of posts claiming this stock was going to be a zero.

You do realize that BB10 needs to be a success for RIM to even stay close to these levels...anyone buying at these levels is basically playing the lottery, if BB10 is a huge success you could make a lot of money, if it fails, you could lose it all. Sounds like too much of a gamble to me, especially when it hasn't even been released yet.

RIMM is currently losing money, has a market share in the US of 1.6% and is way behind right now. I guess if you like gambling, this could be a great buy...I'd prefer sticking with safer stocks though and companies I know are making money.

[sirex]

RIM is going to zero. It's a question of when.

[huiohuio]

You do realize that BB10 needs to be a success for RIM to even stay close to these levels...

What makes you say this?
How many phones do you consider to be "medium success"? Have you checked if that would make RIM profitable? What PE ratio would RIM have at these levels, with only moderate success?

You make it sound like an all-or-nothing game. Do you have real reasons to believe so, or do you just "feel" that way?

[sirex]

What makes you say this?
How many phones do you consider to be "medium success"? Have you checked if that would make RIM profitable? What PE ratio would RIM have at these levels, with only moderate success?

You make it sound like an all-or-nothing game. Do you have real reasons to believe so, or do you just "feel" that way?

Ya, medium success at 1.6% market share.


At least if RIM maintained it's 2011 market share of around 6% leading into 2012, etc, we would know that people would consider ugprading to the new RIM products... At this stage, the only buys left are the 1.6%, and any of the people switching from Android/Apple/Nokia to RIM. That being said, how many people will actually switch from Iphone, Galaxies, Lumias, to a BB10?

How many businesses are chosing 2013 as the year they upgrade all of their phones to an untested BB10?

[huiohuio]

Ya, medium success at 1.6% market share.


At least if RIM maintained it's 2011 market share of around 6% leading into 2012, etc, we would know that people would consider ugprading to the new RIM products... At this stage, the only buys left are the 1.6%, and any of the people switching from Android/Apple/Nokia to RIM. That being said, how many people will actually switch from Iphone, Galaxies, Lumias, to a BB10?

How many businesses are chosing 2013 as the year they upgrade all of their phones to an untested BB10?

If you think medium success for RIM is to sell less than a million phones, you'd be crazy not to short it. Let us know how that goes.

[sirex]

If you think medium success for RIM is to sell less than a million phones, you'd be crazy not to short it. Let us know how that goes.

rim will probably sell 5 million phones in the course of 2013, if it's any good.

[ItechJester]

that's why i love the stock market. there's no mercy and you can lose it all just like that.

i like the fact that ppl are still willing to bet money against rim; without them there would be no way for ppl like me to make money.

you can only be a winner if there are losers. their well being is not your concern.

[BlueBill]

that's why i love the stock market. there's no mercy and you can lose it all just like that.

i like the fact that ppl are still willing to bet money against rim; without them there would be no way for ppl like me to make money.

you can only be a winner if there are losers. their well being is not your concern.

An therein lies the nature of the stock market.

[Vitalogy80]

What makes you say this?
How many phones do you consider to be "medium success"? Have you checked if that would make RIM profitable? What PE ratio would RIM have at these levels, with only moderate success?

You make it sound like an all-or-nothing game. Do you have real reasons to believe so, or do you just "feel" that way?

Obviously for RIMM to become successful it needs to sell a lot of BB10 devices and start making money again...it's not cheap to design, market and build all these phones, so they need them to sell and sell at a high margin. Right now Samsung and Apple take about 98% of the profit in the Smartphone environment, so if you want to get market share, you either have to sell at a lower price (probably not a good idea) or convince customers that you can offer something that Samsung or Apple do not. Will the "average" consumer care about security when Apple is 9 outta 10 and Samsung is making a push in that direction? Not in my opinion.

So if you're stealing profit share away from Samsung or Apple, who's it coming from and what will RIMM offer that will make people leave what they know and are comfortable with to try out a brand new OS?

[brunes]

you can only be a winner if there are losers. their well being is not your concern.

An therein lies the nature of the stock market.

Actually, that is not true. The stock market is not a zero sum game, that is why it works.

[brunes]

Obviously for RIMM to become successful it needs to sell a lot of BB10 devices and start making money again...it's not cheap to design, market and build all these phones, so they need them to sell and sell at a high margin. Right now Samsung and Apple take about 98% of the profit in the Smartphone environment, so if you want to get market share, you either have to sell at a lower price (probably not a good idea) or convince customers that you can offer something that Samsung or Apple do not. Will the "average" consumer care about security when Apple is 9 outta 10 and Samsung is making a push in that direction? Not in my opinion.

You're wrong here on a bunch of fronts.

Apple does not make most of their money selling phones, they make it on iTunes and app store sales and book sales. The phone is a conduit to the customer... they may make a $100 profit on the phone but over the course of the 3 years the person owns the phone Apple makes far more than $100 in other sales. If RIM wants to have any chance with BB10 they have to replicate this model. That means having a successful ecosystem, and that means getting handsets out into the hands of people. RIM should not be selling these phones at any margin AT ALL, in fact I would be very surprised if they did not have them marked down to a very low price such that they were selling them at a loss.