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will TSX fall in the rest of year?

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  • Aug 18th, 2015 12:12 am
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Newbie
Dec 19, 2009
4 posts
Mississauga

will TSX fall in the rest of year?

will TSX fall in the rest of year? if US rate is increased, CAD, gold, oil will be lower. if CNY devalue more, TSX will fall too.
10 replies
Deal Fanatic
Nov 9, 2013
5877 posts
7458 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
How long is a piece of string? Does anyone really know what direction the markets will head? Why can't people predict the future? How long will I live for?
Sr. Member
Jan 15, 2015
643 posts
410 upvotes
victor5241 wrote: will TSX fall in the rest of year? if US rate is increased, CAD, gold, oil will be lower. if CNY devalue more, TSX will fall too.
I'm hoping it will, as there is some cash waiting for a huge drop if it occurs.

Fortunately (can't say it was through any brilliant foresight) I am only 15% invested in the TSE with 85% in US stocks and slight foreign exposure through ADRs. If the entire market drops by 30%, I am back where I was in fall 2012 - unless I gamble it away with day trading :eek: .

The TSX composite had its 50-day MA cross both 200 and 300-day MAs in July. I hope it's not a repeat of early 2008 though. As treva84 said, who can predict the future?
Member
Aug 13, 2013
218 posts
22 upvotes
victor5241 wrote: will TSX fall in the rest of year? if US rate is increased, CAD, gold, oil will be lower. if CNY devalue more, TSX will fall too.
why will gold fall? last time the US increased rates, gold screamed higher.
Deal Addict
Dec 3, 2014
2348 posts
1840 upvotes
Ontario
victor5241 wrote: will TSX fall in the rest of year? if US rate is increased, CAD, gold, oil will be lower. if CNY devalue more, TSX will fall too.
Yes and next year and the year after that. Check back in a couple years for a further update.
Sr. Member
Jan 15, 2015
643 posts
410 upvotes
kype75 wrote: why will gold fall? last time the US increased rates, gold screamed higher.
I think you got it wrong. Gold prices are influenced by supply and demand. Generally speaking, a rising US dollar relative to other currencies, or rising interest rates, can cause gold prices to decrease. Gold is a "zero yield" asset, so higher interest rates mean that money moves from gold to other investments generating higher returns.

Gold prices hit their peak in 2011 and have been in decline ever since. You may recall that the US dollar has risen relative to other currencies during the same time frame, making gold less desirable to hold. At times of world crises, people are uncertain about the worth of paper money, and gold is once more back in demand - at least temporarily.

I remember when gold was around $600 US an ounce in 2001 (high USD relative to CAD and higher borrowing rates). You could buy a nice gold bracelet in Hong Kong for the spot price of gold plus $35 CAD for the labour it took to fashion it.
Sr. Member
Oct 16, 2008
997 posts
182 upvotes
Toronto
I've given up on the markets for this year. Already down -10k (my hard earned money :( ).

Expecting recovery mid 2016...
Sr. Member
User avatar
Jul 6, 2008
675 posts
193 upvotes
Toronto
Keeping mostly cash now and some medical stocks and nice div stocks.
Deal Addict
Aug 1, 2006
1005 posts
100 upvotes
Pho6 wrote: I've given up on the markets for this year. Already down -10k (my hard earned money :( ).
Expecting recovery mid 2016...
<irony_begin>Buy more, it's a fire sale!<irony_end/>
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
26761 posts
9330 upvotes
where I belong
I've given up oil @@ and that'll probably take TSX/financials down with it

We're at March lows ($42) but everything oil-related is doing much worse than March... 52-week lows, decade lows
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