Investing

Worldwide market crash is coming

  • Last Updated:
  • Aug 23rd, 2017 12:54 am
Tags:
None
Jr. Member
Mar 4, 2008
198 posts
20 upvotes
BC
I hope it crashes harrrrrrrrrrrrddddd.
Sr. Member
Oct 21, 2014
639 posts
430 upvotes
Burlington, ON
BiegeToyota wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 7:34 am
Valuations are extremely out of proportion. I think way more than half of so-called "blue chip" companies are trading at ridiculous pe ratios. It will start with Ponzi digital currencies, then Amazon and Apple. Watch this space. If I'm wrong I'll just change my username.
You need to have a short timeframe for this prediction to be of value. What is the exact event that will form the catalyst for this crash and when will it happen? If it is anything more than a month away, delete this thread and create a new one within one month of this occurrence so we can use it for trading.
Newbie
Sep 11, 2012
86 posts
23 upvotes
BC
Thanks OP, I sold everything and I'm now shorting AMZN and AAPL.
Deal Addict
Nov 24, 2013
4104 posts
1120 upvotes
Kingston, ON
There's a "7 year itch" going on so to speak where people are anticipating some kind of major, market-shaking event happening. People (bots?) are ready to sell & short when something appears to be the 'next big catalyst,' be it slowing growth in China (Dec'15/Jan/Feb'16), Brexit, Trump election, but nothing's really stuck. Global economies are growing, employment's strong, and there's been no business-cycle recession yet, just things like a small, regionalized, oil-price recession in Canada or perennial EU-member debt crises.

One factor that I think hasn't been talked about enough is the Millennial echo-Boomers coming of age, entering the workforce, growing the economy, not just 1st world but in emerging markets. A US-listed or EU-listed or TSX-listed company is deriving revenue from all over, not just where their headquarters happens to be, and there's a lot of global growth when the global age pyramid looks like this (a lot of it in India, China, Brazil, etc.)

Image

More people = more consumption = economic growth. Technological advancement = higher productivity = more economic activity per capita.

Something's going to happen eventually that puts the current growth cycle off the rails, but we don't know when or for how long. How's that for a crystal ball?
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3130 posts
497 upvotes
Gungnir wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 10:08 am
You need to have a short timeframe for this prediction to be of value. What is the exact event that will form the catalyst for this crash and when will it happen? If it is anything more than a month away, delete this thread and create a new one within one month of this occurrence so we can use it for trading.
making predictions is a foolish exercise, but here is something that always works - markets rarely stay one-sided for too long and revert to the mean.
Mar 2009 - Aug 2017 ~ 18% annual returns not including dividends. Average is 8-9%? DotCom bubble had 26% returns and 2008 housing pop saw 21% returns? We are almost there and given geopolitical risks/subpar GDP growth, I would say the end is near. Notice how market opens high and sells off on a daily basis. It's not broken yet, but funds are probably liquidating.
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Member
Oct 27, 2014
360 posts
250 upvotes
Toronto, ON
dlhunter wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 10:31 am
making predictions is a foolish exercise, but here is something that always works - markets rarely stay one-sided for too long and revert to the mean.
Mar 2009 - Aug 2017 ~ 18% annual returns not including dividends. Average is 8-9%? DotCom bubble had 26% returns and 2008 housing pop saw 21% returns? We are almost there and given geopolitical risks/subpar GDP growth, I would say the end is near. Notice how market opens high and sells off on a daily basis. It's not broken yet, but funds are probably liquidating.
you've been saying the end is near for as long as ive been on this forum
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3130 posts
497 upvotes
muppetslayer wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 10:51 am
you've been saying the end is near for as long as ive been on this forum
and we came close to collapse in Oct 2014, Aug 2015 and Jan 2016. Brexit, Trump are just a blip on the longer chart and don't count.
Now, people like you drove Canadian real estate to absurd valuations and now paying high price. The day of reckoning for buy the dip "investors" looming.

p.s. and let me rub it in a bit - I have been short since you came to this board and up 98% in 2016, 40% YTD. I sleep well and every morning hoping for 100 points sell off that will catch wise men like you by surprise. I love buying from distressed sellers...
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Member
Oct 27, 2014
360 posts
250 upvotes
Toronto, ON
dlhunter wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:01 am
and we came close to collapse in Oct 2014, Aug 2015 and Jan 2016. Brexit, Trump are just a blip on the longer chart and don't count.
Now, people like you drove Canadian real estate to absurd valuations and now paying high price. The day of reckoning for buy the dip "investors" looming.
I remember you were one of the most vocal about how the stock market was propped up by QE, and once QE was over, it would be the end of the bull run.
that was end of 2013. DOW was below 16000 at the time.
Member
Oct 27, 2014
360 posts
250 upvotes
Toronto, ON
dlhunter wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:01 am
and we came close to collapse in Oct 2014, Aug 2015 and Jan 2016. Brexit, Trump are just a blip on the longer chart and don't count.
Now, people like you drove Canadian real estate to absurd valuations and now paying high price. The day of reckoning for buy the dip "investors" looming.

p.s. and let me rub it in a bit - I have been short since you came to this board and up 98% in 2016, 40% YTD. I sleep well and every morning hoping for 100 points sell off that will catch wise men like you by surprise. I love buying from distressed sellers...
Sure sure man. Your post editing skills are sure one of the best on RFD. Edit out the losing trades within minutes. Ive been asking you to post some screenshots of your "impressive gains" many times, not once you actually did so. The only time you posted was some screenshot of a green +90% from excel
Sr. Member
Oct 21, 2014
639 posts
430 upvotes
Burlington, ON
dlhunter wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 10:31 am
making predictions is a foolish exercise, but here is something that always works - markets rarely stay one-sided for too long and revert to the mean.
Mar 2009 - Aug 2017 ~ 18% annual returns not including dividends. Average is 8-9%? DotCom bubble had 26% returns and 2008 housing pop saw 21% returns? We are almost there and given geopolitical risks/subpar GDP growth, I would say the end is near. Notice how market opens high and sells off on a daily basis. It's not broken yet, but funds are probably liquidating.
Why did you pick March 2009 to today? March 2009 was a generational bottom so of course if you bought the index there you would have done abnormally well. Why not start from May 2008 to today, and the S&P has less than doubled since then excluding divs? If you cherrypick timeframes you can pound in to your head invalid conclusions.

Also, how did you come to the conclusion that GDP growth is subpar? The US has been growing GDP at over two percent of late, considering it's size that is quite good.

Not everything is peachy, and I do believe that Donald Trump is going to get shown the door either by impeachment or to resign, which will cause selling. He doesn't have the right temperament for the job, and can't handle the constant barrage of criticism that every president will be under 24/7. But I think the fundamentals are still good, and your average investor would be well served to hold on and not try to time the market. Personally, I'll hold and collect income.
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3130 posts
497 upvotes
muppetslayer wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:05 am
I remember you were one of the most vocal about how the stock market was propped up by QE, and once QE was over, it would be the end of the bull run.
that was end of 2013. DOW was below 16000 at the time.
FED ended QE3 in Oct 2014, I think. But they kept re-investing proceeds and balance sheet at 4.5 trillion.
European bank started their QE around the same time and kept increasing monthly purchases. Chinese never paused either. Swiss bank openly buys equities, including US based.
And then Trump promised tax cuts and Obamacare repeal, which is fundamental change.
At some point central banks will be unwinding their balance sheets. Tax cuts do not appear to be materializing. Many other things could turn out bad.
I hope for correction to load up, not betting market to zero.
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3130 posts
497 upvotes
muppetslayer wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:08 am
Sure sure man. Your post editing skills are sure one of the best on RFD. Edit out the losing trades within minutes. Ive been asking you to post some screenshots of your "impressive gains" many times, not once you actually did so. The only time you posted was some screenshot of a green +90% from excel
I don't owe you anything and you can expect no proof.
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Member
Oct 27, 2014
360 posts
250 upvotes
Toronto, ON
dlhunter wrote:
May 9th, 2013 3:21 pm
What's the point of your attacks? Market ran its course, everybody is long. Can this continue indefinitely? There are no buyers left, margins overextended. Great point to take profits, if any. I'm only expressing my opinion, based on information in front of me.
dlhunter wrote:
May 9th, 2013 2:44 pm
Get ready. In my opinion, market is turning... pretty bad internals and lots of volume on the down tick. This can get ugly fast.
dlhunter wrote:
Dec 30th, 2013 11:20 am
Went a little off topic when I saw those comments regarding SPX rising in 2014. Remember, we already saw +13% in 2012, +28% in 2013, it's not solid plan to expect more, unless we enter bubble territory which nobody wants as it'll bring severe down turn very quickly. The sun will rise and market returns to mean, and yes, it's NOT different this time.
just quoting some of ur posts from 2013....
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3130 posts
497 upvotes
Gungnir wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:15 am
Why did you pick March 2009 to today? March 2009 was a generational bottom so of course if you bought the index there you would have done abnormally well. Why not start from May 2008 to today, and the S&P has less than doubled since then excluding divs? If you cherrypick timeframes you can pound in to your head invalid conclusions.
you take peak to trough and not some beneficial time frame like May. Google for explanation
Gungnir wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:15 am
Also, how did you come to the conclusion that GDP growth is subpar? The US has been growing GDP at over two percent of late, considering it's size that is quite good.
3 to 5% is good, China gets near 7%
US is near 1.6% now eg BELOW 2% and markets rising by 18% since 2009.
US GDP growth
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3130 posts
497 upvotes
muppetslayer wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:21 am
just quoting some of ur posts from 2013....
something tells me you exist to attack others. Astonished Face
let me repeat once again for you, it's NOT different this time.
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

Top