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Mar 26, 2013
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2nd wave

Anyone’s guess how long the second wave may last? Or when it may start? Do you think 2021 job market will suffer greatly for people looking for work in 2021? When should we expect a vaccine?
Last edited by lovetolearn on Aug 6th, 2020 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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lovetolearn wrote: Anyone’s guess how long the second wave may last? Or when it may start? Do you think 2021 job market will suffer greatly for people looking for work in 2021?
There's no way to know but based on how this first one went - it's not a bad idea to assume it will have a similar impact on the job market (layoffs, furloughs, bankruptcies etc). They keep saying it will be in the Fall when the second wave hits...so I'm thinking things are going to take a long time to get back to normal.
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C_C wrote: There's no way to know but based on how this first one went - it's not a bad idea to assume it will have a similar impact on the job market (layoffs, furloughs, bankruptcies etc). They keep saying it will be in the Fall when the second wave hits...so I'm thinking things are going to take a long time to get back to normal.
Hopefully not. Supposedly an increase in hiring activity in the office/professional ranks recently but retail and restaurants could be in for a long, rough ride. But as you said, why knows once Fall comes around.
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Oct 5, 2019
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I don’t see how we can get back to close to normal unless there is a vaccine. Even if the numbers are kept down, as soon as people are back close together at work or school or bars it’ll just flare back up.

Outside of a vaccine the only way forward that I can see is keep doing social distancing, wear masks and do a lot of testing and contact tracing. This means bars and restaurants are going to be limited still, offices cannot be back to full capacity and schools need to be altered (lower density classrooms, alternating schedules etc).

I know a lot of people are optimistic and the stock market is still up there, but I think that’s just people being too hopeful. I think we’ll be in for a long one.
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Chances are, even if things go back to "normal", or the COVID-19 pandemic is not as bad as expected: businesses will act like as if things aren't so, and use it as an excuse to:
- charge more for essential goods, and cleaning supplies;
- lay off employees, pay them less, , or otherwise cut costs.

As long as the workforce or consumer is willing to subdue to the fear, they will do it.
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Second wave will kill off any businesses that barely survived the first.

The only solution honestly is government bailouts and handouts, there's no pulling up bootstraps for this unless you have really deep pockets. What's obscene is how much money was made by businesses that benefit from Covid...

Even with vaccines, you're assume PEOPLE will actually take them. Anti-vaxxers are in full force despite also getting sick themselves too, unfortunately the lack of intelligence, mistrust in science, and "freedoms!" will be the end of us all....

Businesses should prepare and brace for second wave, work from home, refocus products/services, and be frugal.
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I wonder if households' mindsets will revert back to excessive consumerism once this pandemic is over.
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Market won't dump like before.

Vaccine is imminent and is fast tracked. Markets are pricing in 2021 and tech is the big winners here.

All baked in.

Even if jobs and economy goes down, further stimulus would prop it up.

SPX will be above 3000 for awhile IMO.
"If you make a mistake but then change your ways, it is like never having made a mistake at all" - Confucius
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Oct 5, 2019
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1xTiMeR wrote: Market won't dump like before.

Vaccine is imminent and is fast tracked. Markets are pricing in 2021 and tech is the big winners here.

All baked in.

Even if jobs and economy goes down, further stimulus would prop it up.

SPX will be above 3000 for awhile IMO.
I wouldn’t count on a vaccine coming very soon. There is no guarantee there is even a working vaccine, and even if there is the time it would take to make enough for everyone is not going to be short.
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Gorbers wrote: I wouldn’t count on a vaccine coming very soon. There is no guarantee there is even a working vaccine, and even if there is the time it would take to make enough for everyone is not going to be short.
Say company 1 vaccine doesn't work, there will always be company 2, 3, 50. So many bio-tech is on developing it with big money / gov programs backing it.

More or less, will be successful.

It's just another virus but vaccines just needs time to develop, like any vaccine for another ordinary virus.

Not down playing the effects of covid, but clearly, a vaccine is almost 100% imo.

I think health experts are confident enough to see that the second wave isn't going to affect us much. Society is already very much open.

I doubt the gov / companies would shut us all down again (but very well could).
"If you make a mistake but then change your ways, it is like never having made a mistake at all" - Confucius
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Oct 5, 2019
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1xTiMeR wrote: Say company 1 vaccine doesn't work, there will always be company 2, 3, 50. So many bio-tech is on developing it with big money / gov programs backing it.

More or less, will be successful.

It's just another virus but vaccines just needs time to develop, like any vaccine for another ordinary virus.

Not down playing the effects of covid, but clearly, a vaccine is almost 100% imo.

I think health experts are confident enough to see that the second wave isn't going to affect us much. Society is already very much open.

I doubt the gov / companies would shut us all down again (but very well could).
We still don’t have a vaccine for HIV and it’s been a few decades. We are not guaranteed a vaccine.
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Gorbers wrote: We still don’t have a vaccine for HIV and it’s been a few decades. We are not guaranteed a vaccine.
I don't want to come off as an expert because I am farrrrr from it but I'll leave it at that.

I would bet on a vaccine, just me.
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1xTiMeR wrote: I don't want to come off as an expert because I am farrrrr from it but I'll leave it at that.

I would bet on a vaccine, just me.
I certainly hope we get one and get one soon. I just don’t think we should plan things out as if we have one coming soon. It’s one possible scenario, I think we should also have a plan b.
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1xTiMeR wrote: I don't want to come off as an expert because I am farrrrr from it but I'll leave it at that.

I would bet on a vaccine, just me.
There are challenges in developing vaccines to coronaviruses. The vaccines against SARS caused lung damage in tests.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/

It could take some time to create one that is safe for humans.
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FirstGear wrote: Chances are, even if things go back to "normal", or the COVID-19 pandemic is not as bad as expected: businesses will act like as if things aren't so, and use it as an excuse to:
- charge more for essential goods, and cleaning supplies;
- lay off employees, pay them less, , or otherwise cut costs.

As long as the workforce or consumer is willing to subdue to the fear, they will do it.
I think so too. Companies will and have used this to get rid of people. It's the one time mass layoffs are "understood" by the public. I expect some real layoffs to white collar jobs in 2021 or when we have a way of going back to normal...somewhat.

2nd Wave won't be bad for everyone. Some companies have made so much money from COVID while others have not even been impacted. Those companies should be fine. It's again the ones who were hurt or pushed to the brink during the 1st wave that will feel the pain. So hospitality, hotels ,travel, retail, etc.... If I was in any of those sectors I'd be making plans.

I think many companies will keep people home for a while. The last thing they want is for the workforce to get infected. Like others have said, this does not get better until we have a vaccine or a way of isolating the virus....or it somehow gets much weaker and dies off (I doubt).
Last edited by JayLove06 on Aug 9th, 2020 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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