Real Estate

8 Years of Toronto (416) RE prices

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  • Jul 10th, 2020 7:57 pm
[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
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8 Years of Toronto (416) RE prices

I always play around with these numbers to see what it looks like.

The really interesting thing to me is that condos, houses and the relative price difference have all now reverted to the trend line.

Image
20 replies
[OP]
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Feb 22, 2011
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Not great math considering it's all averages but it does really seem like condos cannot sustain being over 50% of the price of a detached home. It happened once recently in Dec 2018 at 52% and then again in July 2019 at 51%.
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Nov 5, 2018
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Bears, I suggest you turn away and run back to your safe spaces. What you see here WILL hurt!
Called the bottom.
[OP]
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Feb 22, 2011
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Chart starts at Sept 2012.

Houses have went up 95% and condos up 78%. That is an annualized return of about 9% for houses and 7% for condos over that time period.
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Dec 23, 2012
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sircheersa wrote: Chart starts at Sept 2012.

Houses have went up 95% and condos up 78%. That is an annualized return of about 9% for houses and 7% for condos over that time period.
times ~5-20 with leverage and break-even rent :)
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Sep 14, 2003
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Please note: of the two top charts, the slope of the line is misleading. The Y-axis is very different between the two...
4chan melts your brain.
[OP]
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danfromwaterloo wrote: Please note: of the two top charts, the slope of the line is misleading. The Y-axis is very different between the two...
Good point, I could try to change it but then it's hard to see the peaks and valleys. As I previously noted houses have went up more 95% vs 78% for condos over this time period.
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sircheersa wrote: Chart starts at Sept 2012.

Houses have went up 95% and condos up 78%. That is an annualized return of about 9% for houses and 7% for condos over that time period.
Any reason for SEP 2012? Why not JAN 2012?
Price increase looks close to reality on few areas i looked over. There is nothing "normal" here, but probably will never be again the same "normal" as defined last century.
[OP]
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Feb 22, 2011
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Isostar wrote: Any reason for SEP 2012? Why not JAN 2012?
Price increase looks close to reality on few areas i looked over. There is nothing "normal" here, but probably will never be again the same "normal" as defined last century.
No other reason than that I had to manually check each report and copy paste the data which got very boring.
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Jan 12, 2017
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Would be very interesting to see min/max added to the chart. Or perhaps the districts with the lowest and highest trendline slope added to complement the avg data.
sircheersa wrote: Good point, I could try to change it but then it's hard to see the peaks and valleys. As I previously noted houses have went up more 95% vs 78% for condos over this time period.
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sircheersa wrote: Good point, I could try to change it but then it's hard to see the peaks and valleys. As I previously noted houses have went up more 95% vs 78% for condos over this time period.
It just depends on the purpose of the graphs. If you want to show context within the subsector - leave it, it's fine. If you want to show how they compare, you need to standardize the axis.
4chan melts your brain.
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Jul 3, 2007
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sircheersa wrote: Chart starts at Sept 2012.

Houses have went up 95% and condos up 78%. That is an annualized return of about 9% for houses and 7% for condos over that time period.
bottom line is buying RE gives you leverage.... you put 20% down and mortgage a home to get 5-10% year appreciation on a $1 million
asset for example in 416 ....

and you get to live in the investment....

Just a guess though, might be tough to get the past 10 years gains in the next 10 years, because of the damage from the virus....

but then mortgage rates are gonna be low for a while, so that could offset things

im expecting lower % returns this decade....and 2014 - 2017 was an epic foreign fueled buying spree across GTA .....that is not happening again in my opinion....
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The thing that jumps out at me is the trendline for the ratio between the cost of a condo and a single family home is actually increasing.
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Feb 9, 2009
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joepipe wrote: bottom line is buying RE gives you leverage.... you put 20% down and mortgage a home to get 5-10% year appreciation on a $1 million
asset for example in 416 ....

and you get to live in the investment....

Just a guess though, might be tough to get the past 10 years gains in the next 10 years, because of the damage from the virus....

but then mortgage rates are gonna be low for a while, so that could offset things

im expecting lower % returns this decade....and 2014 - 2017 was an epic foreign fueled buying spree across GTA .....that is not happening again in my opinion....
What the hell is this the same pipe who used to bash real estate for years? What’s a good guy turn lol
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Sanyo wrote: What the hell is this the same pipe who used to bash real estate for years? What’s a good guy turn lol
lol....I was never a full out RE bear, just said for a few years that prices were unrealistic for a while.... (detached homes during 2016, 2017)

my offer was accepted last week , i'm back in ....
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Nov 5, 2018
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joepipe wrote: lol....I was never a full out RE bear, just said for a few years that prices were unrealistic for a while.... (detached homes during 2016, 2017)

my offer was accepted last week , i'm back in ....
Joe transcended.
Called the bottom.
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Apr 21, 2004
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Anyone think it will be another double 12 years out?
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Jun 11, 2013
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Probably...but will it matter if everything else does as well (or even more exponentially) ...great for the people with lots of real estate for sure but for the average person not so great
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alanbrenton wrote: Anyone think it will be another double 12 years out?
it will be a raging economy and stock market / RE once this stupid virus is gone...

who knows when that is... a double on RE in 12 years is not unrealistic....thats 6% per year.....

but I would guess this virus has to be gone in the next year or so..... anything longer is gonna be messy
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joepipe wrote: it will be a raging economy and stock market / RE once this stupid virus is gone...

who knows when that is... a double on RE in 12 years is not unrealistic....thats 6% per year.....

but I would guess this virus has to be gone in the next year or so..... anything longer is gonna be messy
So easy double in 20 with QE 5, 6, 7...?

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