Parenting & Family

For/Against schools reopening?

Deal Addict
May 12, 2014
3487 posts
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Montreal
mr_raider wrote: Are you volunteering to infect yourself? I can certainly arrange someone to cough on you.

And your solution is... What exactly?

Stay locked down for years until a vaccine?
Or everyone reopens simultaneously in September with no herd immunity?

Gradual infection is the plan Quebec is going with.
That was clearly stated by the PM yesterday.

It's the plan that every jurisdiction is going with, without admitting it openly.

It's the only realistic plan.

Hoping for a miracle is not a plan.
If you have a better, realistic, plan I would love to hear it.
Last edited by FrancisBacon on Apr 29th, 2020 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Expert
Feb 29, 2008
30106 posts
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Montreal
FrancisBacon wrote: And your solution is... What exactly?

Stay locked down for years until a vaccine?
Or everyone reopens simultaneously in September with no heard immunity?

Gradual infection is the plan Quebec is going with.
That was clearly stated by the PM yesterday.

It's the plan that every jurisdiction is going with, without admitting it openly.

It's the only realistic plan.

Hoping for a miracle is not a plan.
If you have a better, realistic, plan I would love to hear it.
Right now mostly old people in homes are dying so no one gives a crap, because they were on the fringes of society already. When 40 and 50 year olds start dying in large numbers like in NY and Italy, I suspect people will take notice. Ironically Legault fits the prototype of someone who would most likely suffer from a Covid infection: over 60 and overweight.

I ask again, are you volunteering to get infected? How do you like your chances? Are you over 45? What's your body mass index? Do you have high blood pressure? How about asthma? Do you have a parent or grandparent at home?

My kids will survive 6 months or a year at home. They can deal with it. How will they deal if their father dies?
Deal Addict
May 12, 2014
3487 posts
3895 upvotes
Montreal
mr_raider wrote: Right now mostly old people in homes are dying so no one gives a crap, ....
I ask again, are you volunteering to get infected? ...
My kids will survive 6 months or a year at home.
That's not true that no one gives a crap, I certainly do.

But you haven't given a better plan. Not liking our options is not a plan. You have to formulate a realistic alternative.

I am not volunteering to be infected, I'll try not to. But realistically, I have lots of kids, so yeah, I am likely to get it.

As for staying shut a year... First of all, society cannot remain shut for a year. We can't afford it.

Second... Who says things will be better in a year? With the virus circulating widely worldwide and no vaccine in sight, this thing can easy last years. And then what?

What is your alternative?
Last edited by FrancisBacon on Apr 25th, 2020 5:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 7, 2012
1632 posts
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TORONTO
Just an FYI as a close friend of mine is working at a local hospital here in the GTA and is a Triage nurse.
Many cleared COVID patients are getting re-infected. They're having the same symptoms when they first got infected. I can't imagine going through Pneumonia twice in a span of a month. I had pneumonia a few years back and the pain you feel in your upper respiratory tract is brutal. I can't imagine what COVID would feel like.
So keep that in mind when considering the 'herd immunity'. It doesn't seem like these COVID patients are becoming immune to the disease, if anything more susceptible to getting it again. like WTF!!!
Deal Addict
May 12, 2014
3487 posts
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Montreal
There have been lots of studies, and there is as yet no proof that many people are being re-infected. There are a handful of cases among millions, and it's unclear what happened with those people.

Right now, all health experts are saying that, most likely (but not certainly) once you get it you are immune for many months or perhaps years.

If that's not true, then honestly we are totally dead because as far as I know, there is no disease in the world where a vaccine gives immunity but the disease itself doesn't. So if no vaccine, no herd immunity leaves medicines (bad option) or rapid field testing (many months away if it's even possible).
Deal Guru
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Oct 24, 2012
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Montreal
akswun wrote: Just an FYI as a close friend of mine is working at a local hospital here in the GTA and is a Triage nurse.
Many cleared COVID patients are getting re-infected. They're having the same symptoms when they first got infected. I can't imagine going through Pneumonia twice in a span of a month. I had pneumonia a few years back and the pain you feel in your upper respiratory tract is brutal. I can't imagine what COVID would feel like.
So keep that in mind when considering the 'herd immunity'. It doesn't seem like these COVID patients are becoming immune to the disease, if anything more susceptible to getting it again. like WTF!!!
If you aren't immune from the virus from recovering from it, then you have not recovered from it. Recovery = immunity

There are stories of infected people going through 2-3 waves of symptoms, as if the virus has phases of progress.
Deal Addict
Nov 24, 2004
4664 posts
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Toronto
Usually in a modern context we talk about herd immunity with vaccines. Herd immunity in a population exposed to a virus with no vaccine is a different story. You have to be very careful not to get blase about it.

A quick back-of-the-envelope with regard to coronavirus herd immunity would go something like this:

Percent immune required for herd immunity to coronavirus: ~ 70%
Percent fatality rate for those infected with coronavirus: ~ 1% (but distributed very unevenly)
Population of Canada: 38M

Number of COVID-19 deaths in Canada before herd immunity is achieved: 38M x 0.7 x 0.01 = 266,000 excess deaths
This number of illnesses and deaths would overwhelm our healthcare system (unless we impose do-not-treat policies on everyone) and would probably require the construction of many more cemeteries and crematoria.

This is assuming herd immunity is possible on a continuing basis -- we do not yet really know about reinfection, mutation, multiple strains active at one time, etc.
Deal Addict
Nov 24, 2004
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Toronto
alkizmo wrote: If you aren't immune from the virus from recovering from it, then you have not recovered from it. Recovery = immunity
You could recover from one variant of the virus and then become infected by another variant. Just like the flu from year to year.
Deal Addict
May 12, 2014
3487 posts
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Montreal
JHW wrote: Percent fatality rate for those infected with coronavirus: ~ 1% (but distributed very unevenly)
This is a huge overestimate. 1% is the death rate over known/confirmed cases. But the estimate is that there are many many more true cases than confirmed cases.

So the real death rate is almost certainly an order of magnitude lower.


In any event, no one has ever been able to develop a vaccine against coronaviruses in the past. This would have to be the first one. So if it's even possible, it will be a long time coming. Are we supposed to stay in lockdown until then?
Member
Aug 16, 2015
387 posts
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Toronto
Too early to reopen. Since teachers are already prepping and administering learn from home, it would be pointless to reopen now with 2 months remaining. Write this school year off and restart in September pending no major change in the course of the pandemic.
Deal Expert
Feb 29, 2008
30106 posts
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Montreal
alkizmo wrote: If you aren't immune from the virus from recovering from it, then you have not recovered from it. Recovery = immunity

There are stories of infected people going through 2-3 waves of symptoms, as if the virus has phases of progress.
Most children have been exposed to multiple coronviruses and by 10 you've probably seen all 6 or 7 sereotypes. That's not preventing them from getting infected as adults. There are a long list of viruses that don't provide durable immunity. Influenza is a good example.

No one has properly studied if the virus provides long term immunity. We don't know the thresh hold for herd immmunity. If you want to try a herd immunity strategy, health care will have to be severely rationed.
Deal Addict
Nov 24, 2004
4664 posts
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Toronto
FrancisBacon wrote: This is a huge overestimate. 1% is the death rate over known/confirmed cases. But the estimate is that there are many many more true cases than confirmed cases.
There are certainly many more asymptomatic cases than symptomatic ones. But the number I posted is based on an analysis of constrained environments with mass testing -- cruise ships.

On the "Diamond Princess" they tested basically everyone on board (95+%). There were about 3,600 people tested, about 700 people tested positive (well over half of whom were asymptomatic), and 14 deaths. Death rate in that case about 2% of positive tests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... d_Princess

Cruise ship demographics tend to be older, so 2% is likely an overestimate in the general population. 1% is not far off.
Deal Addict
Dec 27, 2013
3731 posts
1526 upvotes
Woodbridge
I really, really, really want to get back to school. But September seems like the earliest possible time at this point. Social distancing would be impossible in schools. There simply isn't enough space. Earlier this year my students actually calculated the "population density" of each classroom. It was part of a data management assignment with connections to geography and science. The average population density of the classrooms in my school is 0.296 students/square metre. This means that 1 student each gets 3.38 square metres of space to themselves. Keeping 2m away from everyone else means that everyone would need a circle around them with a radius of 1m. The area of a circle with a radius of 1m is 3.14 square metres. So, assuming that we remove all furniture from the rooms and that students are teleported into specific pre-determined points in that room and never move around, we have just enough space to keep everyone 2m away from everyone else. Throw staff into that equation? We're down to 3.19 square metres per person. And that's without furniture or permanent fixtures in rooms. That's not considering commonly touched surfaces and shared surfaces. That's not counting choke points in and out of classrooms. That's not counting lockers and hooks side-by-side. That's not counting the level of hygiene, or lack thereof, among children and teens.

We either need a vaccine, a therapeutic, or way more knowledge about where the disease is, where it isn't, who has it, who had it, who's been around those people etc. Having enough masks to give one to each kid wouldn't hurt either.
Deal Addict
May 12, 2014
3487 posts
3895 upvotes
Montreal
The population of Quebec is ~8.5 million.

Estimates are that between 5% (425,000) and 10% (850,000) of the population have it. This is in line with recent estimates out of California and NY among others.

There are 1,340 deaths. Therefore, the death rate is more likely between 0.16% to 0.3%.

But even if the death rate is 5%, our situation is akin to a cancer patient whose only option is chemotherapy: it's a terrible choice, but it's the only one available.

Keeping society closed for months is just not tenable and will only lead to greater suffering and death in the medium term (not even the long term).

For proponents of September: what do you do if there's a second wave in August? Delay until January?

What if nothing has changed from today (ie the curve is just flat, under control, but not going down)?

What is so special about September? Nor even January 2021? It's not as if we'll have a vaccine or treatment by then.
Deal Addict
Apr 25, 2011
1473 posts
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British Columbia
FrancisBacon wrote: Keeping society closed for months is just not tenable and will only lead to greater suffering and death in the medium term (not even the long term).

For proponents of September: what do you do if there's a second wave in August? Delay until January?
Either option is not a good option but the reality is you cannot send your workforce out there to spread like wildfire. We're likely looking at depression level repercussions either way, we might as well protect as many as we can.

Children aren't immune to this virus, either. We don't know enough about how it presents in younger people (I recently heard of toe blisters being a symptom on younger people/children) and look at this article that was published today: Coronavirus alert: Rare syndrome seen in UK children

As I've said before, 20% testing positive need to be admitted -- if they don't get adequate treatment with lack of oxygen and ventilators they may die. A snap shot of the population of those in hospital in the USA was 40% are under 50 years of age... These people could die if hospitals are overwhelmed. Also people needing to visit the hospital for all kinds of other emergencies or having treatments delayed further may die; such as cancer patients needing surgery.

If this spread through the food processing plants further (which it will if left unchecked) then we are in real trouble; lack of food is a huge concern as it is for beef and pork, and other types of foods like vegetables/potatoes are being wasted since people aren't eating them in restaurants and they aren't being diverted elsewhere (which in the long run is bad news)...

Things don't just go back to normal; people will not be able to go to work due to caring for elderly, having autoimmune concerns etc. if this thing takes off (too risky for them/their family). People opening up shops will not have customers; people are saving money, and no sane person is going to be walking in a restaurant or going traveling for example. A huge sector of the workforce is out of commission.
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Dec 15, 2001
3416 posts
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Toronto
September. It's an easy decision for politicians to make, because so much of the school year past already. There's really nothing to save or possibly catch up on at this point.

It'll also give schools time over the summer to beef up it's hygiene and social distancing measures. And monitor for a 2nd wave, because most businesses and daycare would probably open back up this summer (the guinea pigs).

Anything sooner I think would be reckless and irresponsible.
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
4527 posts
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Ottawa
aidendanger wrote: I'm not sure I can say I'm for the schools opening; kids are germ spreaders as others have mentioned. But I am certainly for my kids getting far more instructional schooling via online courses. Both in elementary, they get less than 3 hours work a week and most teachers aren't even "present" (by this I mean checking in online in any way) more than twice a week.
This is unacceptable. I am not anti teacher. I support them being highly paid I think it is a key source of upward mobility in Canada compared to the US. BUT teachers need to be working a full day providing online lessons. With specialist teachers providing breaks. Otherwise Lay then off and give the money to parents as during the strike and let them purchase lessons online. You can get all sorts of tutoring online right now.

Also there is some evidence that for this virus kids are not a major cause of outbreaks. Some early analysis in Europe in places that had schools opened seems to show they are so immune it doesn’t spread rapidly. Their physical, mental and intellectual health is being permanently damaged by staying home so they should not be the last to open but more like the first. Germany seems to have a great model opening grades 1-5 and 12 first as those are most critical years. They will do this with 8000 new cases a day and well before many businesses are allowed to open.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2018
4735 posts
5331 upvotes
FrancisBacon wrote: And your solution is... What exactly?

Stay locked down for years until a vaccine?
Or everyone reopens simultaneously in September with no heard immunity?

Gradual infection is the plan Quebec is going with.
That was clearly stated by the PM yesterday.

It's the plan that every jurisdiction is going with, without admitting it openly.

It's the only realistic plan.

Hoping for a miracle is not a plan.
If you have a better, realistic, plan I would love to hear it.
Two birds one stone - let me propose a solution that I think everyone would be fine with.

There's a group of people who were in Queens Park protesting the lockdown. Right? Their belief is their body their right? Sure - I respect that.

Then there's another group of people who don't want to get this thing, ever, and are waiting for a vaccine. Sure - I respect that.

Without a vaccine, the only way forward is herd immunity - whatever that means, and just like the above two, sure, I respect that too.

If group #1 is so ballsy then sure, go get infected voluntarily to build up herd immunity.
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Deal Addict
Nov 24, 2004
4664 posts
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Toronto
fogetmylogin wrote: BUT teachers need to be working a full day providing online lessons. With specialist teachers providing breaks.
Not everyone's experience is the same. My kids' teachers are online all the time, and I've barely had to wait more than an hour (during school hours) for a response to any inquiry. There are updates every day.

I personally would rather not have teacher-initiated "online lessons" for the kids, except as an occasional thing. It just means another obligation that we have to schedule our work-from-home time around.
Sr. Member
Jan 8, 2009
937 posts
656 upvotes
Simcoe County
JHW wrote: Not everyone's experience is the same. My kids' teachers are online all the time, and I've barely had to wait more than an hour (during school hours) for a response to any inquiry. There are updates every day.

I personally would rather not have teacher-initiated "online lessons" for the kids, except as an occasional thing. It just means another obligation that we have to schedule our work-from-home time around.
Yes, I find the assertion by a few that teachers are only around a couple of times a week very suspect. If that truly is the case, then they need to report the teacher but I know a lot of teachers and all of them are spending a MINIMUM of 2 hours a day on online office hours (where they are right at their email ready to answer questions) plus a MINIMUM of 2-3 hours a day planning lessons and marking and then another 2 hours MINIMUM in meetings, checking email, making updates to parents, dealing with other teachers (for heads of departments), etc. AND this is with a lot of younger teachers having to deal with their own kids as well.

They were told by the government that they should not be doing online lessons. There were concerns with internet access, safe platforms, kids competing for internet time with parents home working, etc.

As far as going back to school, I say the fall. AFTER they've figured out how to hold classes safely and keep both kids (who may not be affected by COVID-19 but carry it home to their parents and grandparents) and teachers (who could be at danger health-wise and who also have families who could be put in danger) safe through distancing, masks, whatever is needed.

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