Travel

Which airlines in Canada are finished?

  • Last Updated:
  • Jul 23rd, 2020 3:47 pm
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Deal Fanatic
Nov 25, 2010
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Abbottabad

Which airlines in Canada are finished?

So I was doing some reading and went down a bit of a rabbit hole and stumbled across some names like Jetsgo and Canada 3000. 9/11 was the last major event that annihilated many of these airline companies. Looks like COVID is about to do the same with some companies reporting drops of almost 90% in passenger volumes.

So who's next to go? I have a feeling Flair will flame out soon.
26 replies
Member
Mar 6, 2015
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New Brunswick
Sunwing. At least the other airlines can still cater to business passengers, but Sunwing's client base is almost entirely leisure travel. And with very few Canadian routes, they're in a tough spot.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 11, 2005
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iamskyhigh wrote: So I was doing some reading and went down a bit of a rabbit hole and stumbled across some names like Jetsgo and Canada 3000. 9/11 was the last major event that annihilated many of these airline companies. Looks like COVID is about to do the same with some companies reporting drops of almost 90% in passenger volumes.

So who's next to go? I have a feeling Flair will flame out soon.
Flair was already gone after they got bought out.
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May 10, 2005
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Air Transat...if it does not get purchased by Air Canada.

And who knows how many Jazz, Air Georgian Limited, Exploits Valley Air Services LTD and Sky Regional. or any other Air Canada affiliates serving small communities since Air Canada has cut ties and cancelled many routes
Penalty Box
Aug 21, 2010
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none
as the government will bail them out
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Dec 20, 2018
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your best bet wrote: none
as the government will bail them out
Govt is not going to bail out Porter, Transat, sunwing etc

They never bailed out Canada 3000, jetsgo etc...why would they bail out those small airlines this time?
Deal Addict
Mar 16, 2007
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AC still has billions in liquidity, but that well will run dry. They are overstaffed on most levels due to callbacks expecting business to pick up, but they over predicted that. September is looming, so expect even more job cuts, and all the recent callbacks to get layed off again. International travel is mostly dead, and US travel won't happen in 2020 it appears. Once flu season hits full stride in Oct/Nov, travel will diminish even more. Their target of coming back to breaking even in 2023 appears to be off to say the least. Don't be surprised if they eventually become a very down scaled operation compared to now.

The Fitch downgrade is not good news at all,
https://www.fool.ca/2020/07/20/why-air- ... reholders/
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Jul 30, 2015
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tripwire wrote: AC still has billions in liquidity, but that well will run dry. They are overstaffed on most levels due to callbacks expecting business to pick up, but they over predicted that. September is looming, so expect even more job cuts, and all the recent callbacks to get layed off again. International travel is mostly dead, and US travel won't happen in 2020 it appears. Once flu season hits full stride in Oct/Nov, travel will diminish even more. Their target of coming back to breaking even in 2023 appears to be off to say the least. Don't be surprised if they eventually become a very down scaled operation compared to now.

The Fitch downgrade is not good news at all,
https://www.fool.ca/2020/07/20/why-air- ... reholders/
I think the worst situation goes to AC as business travel will take most time to recover. They also have a large part in US travel. They're also the one burning the most cash. But they'll never fail as gov will save them from bankruptcy as they did few times in the past.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
Deal Addict
Jun 15, 2015
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Mississauga, ON
StatsGuy wrote:
Govt is not going to bail out Porter, Transat, sunwing etc

They never bailed out Canada 3000, jetsgo etc...why would they bail out those small airlines this time?
Canada 3000 were a bit over their heads well before 9/11. They had acquired other charter airlines and only managed to survive a month or two before declaring bankruptcy. They actually were offered gov assistance post 9/11:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_3000

.... also the owner of Canada 3000 went on to establish Jetsgo and Porter.
dirtmover wrote: Looks like Nolinor is sitting in the wings ready to pick at the bones of Sunwing and Transat:

https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/c ... 79.article
Nolinor is the solution to the demise of Cubana Airlines operating flights to Canada. Previously for those in Quebec / Ontario travelling to Cuba if you had booked (flight and/or package) with Caribesol / Holasun you would of been flying on Cubana metal. Since the plane crash in 2018 they have been utilizing (buying space) exclusively on Air Transat charters .

The Nolinair partnership was in talks/sealed in late 2019/early 2020... it would be pretty silly to “start” up a venture like this given covid to ‘pick at the scraps’
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Jul 30, 2015
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Good luck to Nolinor.... they have very little experience down south (only one being charter for Sunwing last winter), and they operate a fleet of old Boeing 737, of which 3 of them are for OWG operations. Very limited in capacity, range, old so require more maintenance and will break down more often, etc.

They are going against Sunwing, Transat, AC and Westjet, big airlines able to cut cost with their big fleet, pax loads, etc. If they sealed a deal that was previously to one of the big 4, that's because they cut cost to the minimum and they will barely make money. Bold move for sure.

Nolinor is good at operating up north. You wouldnt see AC, Westjet, Transat or Sunwing doing charter flights to Meadowbank with a gravel kit equipped 737-200, well the opposite should be true as well.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
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Dec 20, 2018
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Latitude57 wrote: I think the worst situation goes to AC as business travel will take most time to recover. They also have a large part in US travel. They're also the one burning the most cash. But they'll never fail as gov will save them from bankruptcy as they did few times in the past.
How is it not Transat when they were near bankruptcy before and needed AC to save them?

AC is burning the most cash no doubt, but they're also the ones with most revenue at this time still and have strongest financials.

If AC is able to exit their Transat deal, Transat is done

And AC is still able to issue shares and debt in open market to increase their cash hold and just did a couple months ago with strong demand . Transat didn't have such options as they entered the pandemic in very bad shape like many other discount leisure operators.

But I don't doubt the Quebec govt may strongly consider buying a share in Transat to keep it afloat like other businesses for sake of having a presence in Quebec like they did before AC rescued Transat with a takeover deal
Last edited by StatsGuy on Jul 20th, 2020 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sr. Member
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Jul 30, 2015
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StatsGuy wrote: How is it not Transat when they were near bankruptcy before and needed AC to save them?

AC is burning the most cash no doubt, but they're also the ones with most revenue at this time still and have strongest financials.

If AC is able to exit their Transat deal, Transat is done

And AC is still able to issue shares and debt in open market to increase their cash hold
Trolling as usual !

AC with the most revenue at this time... :facepalm: revenue means nothing if your spending 10 times your revenue :facepalm: I suggest you take a look at AC financials .... loosing 600 millions a month is no joke.

By the way, AC has nothing to do with Transat at this time. They are both separate entities. If they were near bankruptcy they would of been gone already.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
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Latitude57 wrote: I think the worst situation goes to AC as business travel will take most time to recover. They also have a large part in US travel. They're also the one burning the most cash. But they'll never fail as gov will save them from bankruptcy as they did few times in the past.
Latitude57 wrote: Trolling as usual !

AC with the most revenue at this time... :facepalm: revenue means nothing if your spending 10 times your revenue :facepalm: I suggest you take a look at AC financials .... loosing 600 millions a month is no joke.

By the way, AC has nothing to do with Transat at this time. They are both separate entities. If they were near bankruptcy they would of been gone already.
I agree.
This situation may actually be a blessing for Air Canada. By laying off a lot of employees and cutting lot of routes, it can bring Air Canada into an area they have never been before.....efficiency and cost saving. LOL
Thing with Air Canada and in particular, it's employees, is that they never gotten out of the public servant mentality. Employees had entitlement and that kept AC from being efficient. While other airlines out sourced, Air Canada had to retain expensive staff.
As for business travel, I fully agree as well. Business travel will never be the same again. With so much lockdown businesses have discovered you do not need to travel and have face to face meetings. Business can carry on quite effectively with online meetings.
Air Canada has realized business travel will be throttled in the near (and maybe far) future. They have cancelled many routes. Out of Ottawa alone, there has been almost a dozen routes cancelled as well as reduction in some others by understanding the Feds will not be flying anywhere near the pre Covid levels.
Air travel will be in for a hard time for a long time to come. If the airlines try to compensate by increasing prices for vacation travelers, they will only prolong their pain.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 20, 2018
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Latitude57 wrote: Trolling as usual !

AC with the most revenue at this time... :facepalm: revenue means nothing if your spending 10 times your revenue :facepalm: I suggest you take a look at AC financials .... loosing 600 millions a month is no joke.

By the way, AC has nothing to do with Transat at this time. They are both separate entities. If they were near bankruptcy they would of been gone already.
Well you said AC was burning the most cash, I simply pointed out they were also generating the most revenue as well that you failed to include and also have the highest amount of liquidity

Comes with being largest carrier
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Jul 5, 2004
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Business meetings will go back to normal eventually. Execs will once again be flying all over the world. Most deals are done in back room meetings, not in official meetings. Execs know that and once one company starts doing it again, all the others will follow or they'll be left behind.
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Shaner wrote: Business meetings will go back to normal eventually. Execs will once again be flying all over the world. Most deals are done in back room meetings, not in official meetings. Execs know that and once one company starts doing it again, all the others will follow or they'll be left behind.
You have a point.
Maybe execs will go back to travel but the minions and staff will be staying back in the office.
Sr. Member
Aug 3, 2017
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Shaner wrote: Business meetings will go back to normal eventually. Execs will once again be flying all over the world. Most deals are done in back room meetings, not in official meetings. Execs know that and once one company starts doing it again, all the others will follow or they'll be left behind.
There will be a new normal, but it will be different. I have been doing 16-20 business trips per year for over ten years all in Air Canada. While I am itching for this to be over to get back in the air, I believe the pandemic will also change how we do business long term and there will be less travel for a very long time. Many of us who thrive on travel are also finding other hobbies and priorities.
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Oct 23, 2017
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StatsGuy wrote: Porter
Porter might be OK. They bought their current fleet many years ago and have not ordered new aircraft for a few years, so I would not expect them to have a lot of debt. Also, their Q400 turboprop has lower operating costs than a jet equivalent and can break even on costs with fewer passengers. Then there is their unique convenience proposition for downtown travellers because of the proximity of Bill Bishop airport.

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