Real Estate

Almost half of July, looks like RE market better than June

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  • Aug 6th, 2020 1:18 pm
[OP]
Banned
Jun 1, 2017
513 posts
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Almost half of July, looks like RE market better than June

Almost recovered
112 replies
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
12484 posts
15967 upvotes
Toronto
I am really curious about July. May was bad but June had a big bounce. I think July-September will be really telling.

Just looking at the last few years the average has went down MoM in July so this would be different.

Looking in my neighborhood and the neighborhood I am interested in and it seems like everything is going at an ATH.
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
12484 posts
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Toronto
joepipe wrote:
I said all this new money supply and cheap credit would be used by wealthy people, I didn't think it would be this fast though I was thinking a few years down the road.
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2007
4050 posts
4532 upvotes
Toronto
the condo chart is diving and getting weaker , but everything else is in demand and selling quick if priced right ....

my agent friend said there was a ton of condo listings this week and last downtown.....
Last edited by joepipe on Jul 14th, 2020 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2018
4554 posts
4990 upvotes
Be careful here. You're using an incredibly small sample size.
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Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
12484 posts
15967 upvotes
Toronto
joepipe wrote: the condo chart is diving and getting weaker , but everything else is in demand and selling quick if priced right ....
Basically the opposite of 2017 lol.

Which is funny because bears said detached drives the market and bulls said it's bottom up. I wonder if everyone will flip stances or if they will just give up and see what happens.
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2007
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Toronto
sircheersa wrote: Basically the opposite of 2017 lol.

Which is funny because bears said detached drives the market and bulls said it's bottom up. I wonder if everyone will flip stances or if they will just give up and see what happens.
Detached is taking the lead now,, condos had their run for 5 years....
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2020
1047 posts
1511 upvotes
joepipe wrote: the condo chart is diving and getting weaker , but everything else is in demand and selling quick if priced right ....

my agent friend said there was a ton of condo listings this week and last downtown.....
I think that the condo market is only weak in downtown. Outside of downtown, the condo market is doing okay.
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2007
4050 posts
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Toronto
Newuserid wrote: I think that the condo market is only weak in downtown. Outside of downtown, the condo market is doing okay.
ya he said DT, and housesigma is showing buyers market in a lot of areas....
Jr. Member
Nov 23, 2014
171 posts
39 upvotes
East York, ON
From the ones that I am following in North York, it seems, everything is going below listing and I have seen a few houses get relisted for less.

Is this normal or I was thinking it was a sign of prices coming down in July.

Detached only in North York. Very small sample size.
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2020
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oldspice wrote: From the ones that I am following in North York, it seems, everything is going below listing and I have seen a few houses get relisted for less.

Is this normal or I was thinking it was a sign of prices coming down in July.

Detached only in North York. Very small sample size.
Which area in North York and at what price range?

If you are referring to central or east North York, I think it would be normal for it to be slow. The detached houses in that area are far from entry level so I would imagine they will feel the downward pressure more.
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2020
1047 posts
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joepipe wrote: ya he said DT, and housesigma is showing buyers market in a lot of areas....
It's really hard to gauge which way the condo market is moving. According to housesignma, condo prices seem to be improving. Median prices for July are currently above $700K, which is close to peak.
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Deal Addict
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Nov 5, 2018
2916 posts
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Toronto
I suspect things will heat up; easy money + low rates. I’m curious to see if people from Hong Kong will choose to buy here because of what’s going on there...but who knows at this point.

That’s why I just signed for another precon. It’s heating up, boys! Fire Fire Fire
Called the bottom.
Sr. Member
Aug 17, 2018
627 posts
1124 upvotes
Newuserid wrote: It's really hard to gauge which way the condo market is moving. According to housesignma, condo prices seem to be improving. Median prices for July are currently above $700K, which is close to peak.
Median really does not tell you that much. Median only means what is the mid-point price of units sold. It is different from average. If you look at the average price per sqft as condos.ca posts them, you can clearly see a downward trend. Also the benchmark price as reported by TREB for condos has been down for 3 months.

New listings last month in Toronto reached an all-time high (only history for last 10 years available on housesigma) for condos and this month is looking equally strong in terms of new listings.

Screen Shot 2020-07-14 at 10.27.57 AM.png
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2020
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JanZ95915 wrote: Median really does not tell you that much. Median only means what is the mid-point price of units sold. It is different from average. If you look at the average price per sqft as condos.ca posts them, you can clearly see a downward trend. Also the benchmark price as reported by TREB for condos has been down for 3 months.

New listings last month in Toronto reached an all-time high (only history for last 10 years available on housesigma) for condos and this month is looking equally strong in terms of new listings.

Screen Shot 2020-07-14 at 10.27.57 AM.png
You make some valid points here. However, I think ppsf isn't entirely reliable either since it can go up or down depending on the size of the home. Sold ppsf could have went down because of buyer's preference for larger condos. If you look at the ppsf data for detached houses, I wouldn't be surprised if they went down since people may prefer larger homes (unfortunately, this data isn't available).

I think that median prices are very relevant as it indicates how much buyers are willing to spend on a home. If the market is really weak, I would expect median prices to go down as buyers will have less income and take on less debt. However, prices are going back up again which indicates otherwise.

I'm not trying to conclude here that the condo market is strong. I just dont understand how median prices can go up in a weak market.

The only possible explanation I can think of is that the buyer pool has change. The market is now driven by first time homebuyers\ end users, and less investors. Therefore, these buyers are willing to spend more money as they plan to live in it, causing median prices to go up.
[OP]
Banned
Jun 1, 2017
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Most people are not taking vacation this summer and people need more living space now.
Deal Guru
User avatar
Sep 14, 2003
10876 posts
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Mississauga
Honestly, the market is completely disconnected from reality. Both RE and stocks.

Unemployment is at 12% in Canada. We're in the waning days of a pandemic that shut down the entire planet. People are overextended from a borrowing perspective. Rates are at insanely low levels.

Stock market is 10% off of all time highs. RE market is going white hot. Something has to give. Fundamentals are fundamental for a reason - you cannot have sustained growth without it. This is like cartoon-physics, where Bugs Bunny holds something up, then scratches his tail, and the object just stays there when he moves his hand away.

This isn't me being a bear or pessimistic - this is me calling out that it doesn't make any sense at all.
4chan melts your brain.
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
12368 posts
11266 upvotes
joepipe wrote:
Remember when butt-ler was anticipating doom? Just another shrill but glad he’s busy.

We have our spring market now so we are technically in march/April really. Few months of pent up demand. I expect at least a couple of months of hot market before we chill out again.
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Nov 5, 2018
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danfromwaterloo wrote: Honestly, the market is completely disconnected from reality. Both RE and stocks.

Unemployment is at 12% in Canada. We're in the waning days of a pandemic that shut down the entire planet. People are overextended from a borrowing perspective. Rates are at insanely low levels.

Stock market is 10% off of all time highs. RE market is going white hot. Something has to give. Fundamentals are fundamental for a reason - you cannot have sustained growth without it. This is like cartoon-physics, where Bugs Bunny holds something up, then scratches his tail, and the object just stays there when he moves his hand away.

This isn't me being a bear or pessimistic - this is me calling out that it doesn't make any sense at all.
That's what easy money and low rates do to the economy! Interest rates are literally the price of money and when the price of money is almost zero, you cause a distortion in everything else. We are definitely in unchartered territory.

I am very interested in whether we will see inflation. You have many guys who say inflation will be very muted for the foreseeable future, but I do believe that we should expect THE UNEXPECTED!
Called the bottom.

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