Apple Stocks

This is a logical argument...China is a very big concern with Apple. Commoditization is not IMHO. If you believe China is going to go into a recession, I would not invest heavily in Apple, it's a major area for them. Frankly, I don't invest heavily in any single stock anymore, I'm now an ETF investor with a much smaller portion in some individual stocks.

The only counter I would have is Apple doesn't care that iPad sales are on the decline because they believe it's because of larger iPhones. Apple makes more profit selling an iPhone than selling an iPad...would they rather sell both, of course...but I'd say if iPhones are bought instead of iPads, I don't think Apple is concerned. As long as Revenue/Earnings/EPS/etc are all growing, which they are significantly, I don't think Apple needs to be concerned. Are there Macro concerns like China, Europe, or anything else...of course, those are very valid concerns, just like they are with many Global companies.

xgbsSS wrote: ↑If you read back a few posts I made, I made very logical arguments as to why I am not very bullish on Apple. You, on the otherhand took every single post and went on an angry rampage.

It's perfectly fine to be confident on your investments, just don't be a cry baby if people don't agree with you. And people may make the wrong calls, but there definitely were better investments than Apple in the last few years for sure. I'm not confident in Apple due to the lack of growth which their stock price's moment is based on. I find there are much better opportunities than Apple that don't have possible decay as part of their risk.

Usually when I see someone do this its a good sign to short sell a stock.

Unfortunately, it makes up a huge portion of the S&P 500 as I mentioned, and this puts everyone's savings at great risk.

Here are the just released June 30th standings in xgbsSS's 2015 RFD Stock Picking Contest - it may be of some slight interest to reader's of this thread.

whistlepig wrote: ↑Here are the just released June 30th standings in xgbsSS's 2015 RFD Stock Picking Contest - it may be of some slight interest to reader's of this thread.

Because it did well since Dec 31st last year?

xgbsSS wrote: ↑No one is saying it's a bad investment or that it is going to crash. The problem people have is that a lot of people think that buying this one stock is a prudent form of investing. The fact of the matter is there is a slowdown in their business mode, and frankly Apple probably won't have any more blockbuster products coming out that will be as big as iPod or iPhone. iPad was OK, iWatch seems dead. The only thing I would look for in the shares if they decide to do a massive payout of their cash pile which is what Carl Icahn was probably trying to convince the board.

I own Apple but only through the few ETFs I own. I wouldn't buy it out directly.

i disagree


apple will continue to innovate and people still buy their products.

the apple watch a failure?? 200,000 watches sold every day........ it's dropped to about 20,000 watches per day... that's a failure???? what other company in the world releases a new watch and people flock to buy it????

IT's hard to convince people they need a digital watch. Not everyone wants to wear it so of course, the first install of this watch is going to be slow.

as the tech improves people will buy more of it. and think about it... $500 for a watch.. amazing that people are even buying this.... i don't even understand it's purpose... to see twitter updates on your wrist?? lol

Think about this.. you go to apple store.

You buy a laptop. the ipad...... you then get the phone... you then get the iwatch..... pretty soon TV will be out.. You just spent $5,000.

I mean talk about a company that has every single electronic in your house hold.


On top of that.. the design is sleek and nice.

I dont own any apple prodcuts. my fiance does. iphone, ipad. I don't use them my self, but you are lieing to yourself if you believe the company making these beautiful products is going to fail any time in the future.

All they need to do is release a new ihpone every year and make it a Tad bit better than the previous one = WIN.

daivey wrote: ↑i disagree


apple will continue to innovate and people still buy their products.

the apple watch a failure?? 200,000 watches sold every day........ it's dropped to about 20,000 watches per day... that's a failure???? what other company in the world releases a new watch and people flock to buy it????

IT's hard to convince people they need a digital watch. Not everyone wants to wear it so of course, the first install of this watch is going to be slow.

as the tech improves people will buy more of it. and think about it... $500 for a watch.. amazing that people are even buying this.... i don't even understand it's purpose... to see twitter updates on your wrist?? lol

Think about this.. you go to apple store.

You buy a laptop. the ipad...... you then get the phone... you then get the iwatch..... pretty soon TV will be out.. You just spent $5,000.

I mean talk about a company that has every single electronic in your house hold.


On top of that.. the design is sleek and nice.

I dont own any apple prodcuts. my fiance does. iphone, ipad. I don't use them my self, but you are lieing to yourself if you believe the company making these beautiful products is going to fail any time in the future.

All they need to do is release a new iphone every year and make it a Tad bit better than the previous one = WIN.

Never have I said Apple won't continue to make money or fail. I am looking it as an investment so in other words, what growth and income can this company produce from the stock price levels. My belief is that the momentum of the stock is going to slow down much more. "Innovation" or essentially minute improvements can only spur so much more in sales and as the main seller being iPhones can only saturate the market so much. Sure, there will be those that upgrade each time, but only a few diehards do so.

The problem with the iWatch is not the absolute sales, but the sales expected from the product in general. Apple produces watches based on demand projections, secures semiconductors, batteries and internals from other companies to make their product. If sales are not as high as expected, they can't make as much money if they have unsold stock. Also, your figures for sales is not correct. Since Apple doesn't release sales numbers, we have no idea exact sales. Some market studies suggest 35000-50000 sold per day in April, but has now dropped to about 5000 per day.


Apple TV has been rumoured year after year with no real momentum whatsoever. Besides, what can Apple do at this point to compete with Netflix or even small companies like Roku? The reason why Apple hasn't gone with it already is that there just isn't profit in TVs. Netflix is still barely, if profitable. A product paired with Apple internals with an expensive peripherals may sell to some diehard fans, but won't make money for the company.

What it boils down to is this. Apple is a very strong brand with a very strong market share. The problem is not failure. The problem is momentum and decay. The growth phase of Apple as an investment is done and over. That is what drove the stock price. The only thing Apple as a stock can provide is buying in now either income through servicing of their products or product replacement, and whittling down their cash pile. To me, that doesn't bode well for me to pick Apple as an investment. Competitors will always come. Cheaper brands in China have already taken the market by storm, not so much for product superiority, but good enough quality for the fraction of the price. That being said, I think it would take many years for it to hit Apple, and I believe people will continue to purchase Apple products, but prices will have to come down. Laptops, MP3 players, TVs, Tablets have already done so. What makes Smartphones immune?

I would not buy Apple separately. I own it via my ETF portion of my portfolio. Apple may go up in the next few years if cash payouts increase as Apple has extensive amounts of cash to just whittle away other than for a lack of ideas. But to me there are much more promising investments out there than Apple. That nearly $200 billion in cash on their books is crazy. If they were truly innovating, that cash would be used to innovate. The lack of new business ideas to me is the reason why Apple is not paying out a higher dividend. They could easily afford to do so. Even though the stock is not for me, I understand why people like the stock. It has a lot of cash and a strong business right now. But as prudent investors, you should be worried about things such as this, and not have just blind faith that Apple will never fail.

As long as there's more aggressive share buyback and rapid dividend increase, more income investors will jump in an hold on to it for the long run. 194 billion won't stay in cash forever.

I wouldn't count out its future cash cow aka Apple Pay with such a loyal and growing fanbase of iPhone users. It's Samsung, LG and HTC who will gradually be replaced by the likes of Xiaomi, Lenovo, Huawei as we have already witnessed in the developing world.

Moreover, if you've actually been to China recently you'd see Apple still has tremendous potential there left among the still-growing middle clas.

xgbsSS wrote: ↑Never have I said Apple won't continue to make money or fail. I am looking it as an investment so in other words, what growth and income can this company produce from the stock price levels. My belief is that the momentum of the stock is going to slow down much more. "Innovation" or essentially minute improvements can only spur so much more in sales and as the main seller being iPhones can only saturate the market so much. Sure, there will be those that upgrade each time, but only a few diehards do so.

The problem with the iWatch is not the absolute sales, but the sales expected from the product in general. Apple produces watches based on demand projections, secures semiconductors, batteries and internals from other companies to make their product. If sales are not as high as expected, they can't make as much money if they have unsold stock. Also, your figures for sales is not correct. Since Apple doesn't release sales numbers, we have no idea exact sales. Some market studies suggest 35000-50000 sold per day in April, but has now dropped to about 5000 per day.


Apple TV has been rumoured year after year with no real momentum whatsoever. Besides, what can Apple do at this point to compete with Netflix or even small companies like Roku? The reason why Apple hasn't gone with it already is that there just isn't profit in TVs. Netflix is still barely, if profitable. A product paired with Apple internals with an expensive peripherals may sell to some diehard fans, but won't make money for the company.

What it boils down to is this. Apple is a very strong brand with a very strong market share. The problem is not failure. The problem is momentum and decay. The growth phase of Apple as an investment is done and over. That is what drove the stock price. The only thing Apple as a stock can provide is buying in now either income through servicing of their products or product replacement, and whittling down their cash pile. To me, that doesn't bode well for me to pick Apple as an investment. Competitors will always come. Cheaper brands in China have already taken the market by storm, not so much for product superiority, but good enough quality for the fraction of the price. That being said, I think it would take many years for it to hit Apple, and I believe people will continue to purchase Apple products, but prices will have to come down. Laptops, MP3 players, TVs, Tablets have already done so. What makes Smartphones immune?

I would not buy Apple separately. I own it via my ETF portion of my portfolio. Apple may go up in the next few years if cash payouts increase as Apple has extensive amounts of cash to just whittle away other than for a lack of ideas. But to me there are much more promising investments out there than Apple. That nearly $200 billion in cash on their books is crazy. If they were truly innovating, that cash would be used to innovate. The lack of new business ideas to me is the reason why Apple is not paying out a higher dividend. They could easily afford to do so. Even though the stock is not for me, I understand why people like the stock. It has a lot of cash and a strong business right now. But as prudent investors, you should be worried about things such as this, and not have just blind faith that Apple will never fail.

no one has blind faith in apple.

a lot of what you said is the typical stuff we all know and hear about on a consistent bases.

You talk about price having to come down.... but then you mention the power of the brand... You say there isn't profit in TVs and compare to Netflix and how netflix model is barely profitable (if they chose to go that route)

Everything you said revolves around price competition and what you fail to understand about apple is that they have all the pricing competition in their court (back to the brand being image/name). They can literally make prices up out of thin air and the product sells like hot cakes. The competitors you talk about are garbage.... phony phones, *****ty electronics. Chinese knock offs won't take any market by storm. Doesn't matter how super they make them. No mass market influx of crappy OnePLUSONE or whatever it's called will make any big strides. Sure, as a cheaper alternative for someone who CANT afford an Iphone... but as soon as they can afford an Iphone, they jump ship.

The explosive growth of Apple products will continue on... Unless they stop dead in their tracks and completely lose sight of everything.

PS on a side note, I find it funny that you guys try to do an analysis on a stock and sit here talking about pricing on watches and iphones. I think you guys spend to much time on RFD that you think the world revolves around pricing only. Reality is, it doesn't.. pricing isn't the only thing that matters.

xgbsSS wrote: ↑Never have I said Apple won't continue to make money or fail. I am looking it as an investment so in other words, what growth and income can this company produce from the stock price levels. My belief is that the momentum of the stock is going to slow down much more. "Innovation" or essentially minute improvements can only spur so much more in sales and as the main seller being iPhones can only saturate the market so much. Sure, there will be those that upgrade each time, but only a few diehards do so.

The problem with the iWatch is not the absolute sales, but the sales expected from the product in general. Apple produces watches based on demand projections, secures semiconductors, batteries and internals from other companies to make their product. If sales are not as high as expected, they can't make as much money if they have unsold stock. Also, your figures for sales is not correct. Since Apple doesn't release sales numbers, we have no idea exact sales. Some market studies suggest 35000-50000 sold per day in April, but has now dropped to about 5000 per day.


Apple TV has been rumoured year after year with no real momentum whatsoever. Besides, what can Apple do at this point to compete with Netflix or even small companies like Roku? The reason why Apple hasn't gone with it already is that there just isn't profit in TVs. Netflix is still barely, if profitable. A product paired with Apple internals with an expensive peripherals may sell to some diehard fans, but won't make money for the company.

What it boils down to is this. Apple is a very strong brand with a very strong market share. The problem is not failure. The problem is momentum and decay. The growth phase of Apple as an investment is done and over. That is what drove the stock price. The only thing Apple as a stock can provide is buying in now either income through servicing of their products or product replacement, and whittling down their cash pile. To me, that doesn't bode well for me to pick Apple as an investment. Competitors will always come. Cheaper brands in China have already taken the market by storm, not so much for product superiority, but good enough quality for the fraction of the price. That being said, I think it would take many years for it to hit Apple, and I believe people will continue to purchase Apple products, but prices will have to come down. Laptops, MP3 players, TVs, Tablets have already done so. What makes Smartphones immune?

I would not buy Apple separately. I own it via my ETF portion of my portfolio. Apple may go up in the next few years if cash payouts increase as Apple has extensive amounts of cash to just whittle away other than for a lack of ideas. But to me there are much more promising investments out there than Apple. That nearly $200 billion in cash on their books is crazy. If they were truly innovating, that cash would be used to innovate. The lack of new business ideas to me is the reason why Apple is not paying out a higher dividend. They could easily afford to do so. Even though the stock is not for me, I understand why people like the stock. It has a lot of cash and a strong business right now. But as prudent investors, you should be worried about things such as this, and not have just blind faith that Apple will never fail.

Already priced in by the market...since 2012

For the first time in decades Apple is playing catch up.

This is never a good thing.

That is all.

xgbsSS wrote: ↑iWatch seems dead.

Here is an astute analysis of the recent Apple Watch 'sales report' by Slice Intelligence.

masterhapposai wrote: ↑For the first time in decades Apple is playing catch up.

This is never a good thing.

That is all.

Catch up to what?

dlhunter wrote: ↑remember how many folks claimed you cannot lose money on AAPL
would love to hear their perspective now

I swear every time you come in gloating about Apple lagging the market, it goes up sharply. It's up about $12 since you posted this. Would love to hear your perspective now

AAPL is a great company. You can see it maturing. I can see growth going down and dividend going up. It depends what you're looking for in a stock.

The odd part of AAPL is as much as the stock has done well over the last year or 2, it could be much higher. It gets judged more comprehensively then most stocks in the tech space. Not sure if or when that will occur but I've lightened up recently. If it can only get to a 16 P/E with the growth it's had, it's going to underperform the (new) tech sector going forward (I say new to exclude companies like MSFT and IBM which I think are ancient and not worth owning).

^This billionaire seems to disagree with you thinking Apple will under perform
http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensl ... worth-240/

deal_with_singh wrote: ↑^This billionaire seems to disagree with you thinking Apple will under perform
http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensl ... worth-240/

I love Ichan and I hope he's right. AAPL is my 5th largest holding, I just thought I was overexposed so I sold half my position (it used to be my largest holding by far). Maybe that'll end up being a mistake. Time will tell.

Vitalogy80 wrote: ↑I swear every time you come in gloating about Apple lagging the market, it goes up sharply. It's up about $12 since you posted this. Would love to hear your perspective now

lol, I am glad my gloating helps you in any way
AAPL trade is crowded, at some point you will be sorry you didn't sell. Earnings today... let's see another $12

dlhunter wrote: ↑lol, I am glad my gloating helps you in any way
AAPL trade is crowded, at some point you will be sorry you didn't sell. Earnings today... let's see another $12

You owned it.

Apple just got rocked down to $120.50, LOST the $12+ and likely wiped any account that went big in Options for it, damaged portfolios and hurt the S&P 500 badly, just as I said it was a liability for and people don't know why. hint: Apple represents too much of the S&P 500.

Show some respect for dlhunter, he called all this.

I managed to get a picture of Apple in my live trading view :

[IMG]http://charts.stocktwits.com/production ... 1437511161[/IMG]

masterhapposai wrote: ↑I managed to get a picture of Apple in my live trading view :

[IMG]http://charts.stocktwits.com/production ... 1437511161[/IMG]

Is that the iVan?

Smallest beat in 2 years. The next interation of iPhone will have to be a gamechanger, the large screen they've been holding back on for so long is no longer a trump card that they can play.

Light guidance: Expects FQ4 revenue of $49B-$51B, below $51.1B consensus.

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Conference call in 10 minutes - http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/1 ... index.html