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April 2020 unemployment rate 13 per cent, economists had expected unemployment rate of 18 per cent

  • Last Updated:
  • May 15th, 2020 3:13 pm
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[OP]
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Apr 25, 2020
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M1C
from https://twitter.com/eppman
Canada loses nearly 2 million jobs in April (estimate 4 million) Unemployment rate spike to 13%. (1.47 million full-time jobs, 522,000 part-time)

This is a key statement from Stats Canada which could point to a faster rebound. "In April, almost all (97.0%) of the newly-unemployed were on temporary layoff, indicating that they expected to return to their former employer as the shutdown is relaxed."

Other Stats Canada labour survey nuggets...
1.1 million people stopped looking for work in April due to reduced job opportunities (so, add those to the headline total) More than a third of the workforce didn't work or had reduced hours.

An estimated 5 million Canadians worked from home in April (up more than 3 million from a typical month) 75% working from home in professional, scientific, and technical services. 65% in Finance, insurance and real-estate. Just 8% working from home in hotel and food services.

Shocking stats. 1.6 million Canadians in economic families (including people living alone) now in a household where no one is employed (up 23.5%). The number of single parents unemployed up 126,000.
Source, Stats Canada

Young Canadians hardest hit by age group as more likely to work in less-secure jobs, employment down 34% from Feb. to Apr. for those aged 15 - 24. April job loss #'s were larger for men than women nearly balancing the 2 month totals.
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Jan 7, 2019
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And on the US side, 20.5million job losses....yet the stock markets are up.

Go go cash printing machine!
Remember to always Thumbs Up good responses! Spread positively.
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Nov 13, 2010
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What about those that are looking for jobs in their fields but cant find any? Are they included or these are from cerb/ei system ?
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May 12, 2014
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BrokeMillennial wrote: And on the US side, 20.5million job losses....yet the stock markets are up.

Go go cash printing machine!

Unemployment has never been a forward looking indicator. It reflects what has already happened.

The stock market attempts to forecast the future.
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Feb 13, 2017
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BrokeMillennial wrote: And on the US side, 20.5million job losses....yet the stock markets are up.

Go go cash printing machine!
Original reports were deaths in the millions in the US so people freaked out. Plus many thought the virus death rate would be much higher given the magnitude of measures implemented by governments. As the increases on cases/deaths subside, investors start jumping back in. Many states are starting to reopen as are parts of Canada and other countries which will cause a big decline in unemployment numbers in the months ahead as a majority of the job losses were a result of government mandating shutting down non-essential parts of the economy. The stock market factors in the current situation with a future outlook as well.
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Jan 2, 2015
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I keep hearing that 40% of small businesses will not reopen (due to failure). I really hope that's not the case. Businesses usually have to pay rent too, so I hope they can make arrangements with their landlords the way residential tenants can.

To be honest, I am surprised at the low number of job losses. I presume many people didn't lose their jobs but are working fewer hours.
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Nov 13, 2010
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Yeah our hours are reduced. Work is now 4 days instead of 5. No overtime also.
Hope things open up or it could get worse out there
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Apr 5, 2013
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keenland
i think numbers are skewed...this just softens the blow visually ..real data and effect will be shown 6-8 months from now..better or worse depending on how long the lockdown is
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Mar 25, 2012
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@cardguy The numbers are totally skewed, for several reasons:
  1. Data only includes job losses to April 14th or 15th, well before many job losses were incurred
  2. It does not take into account anyone was laid off, temporarily or permanently, but who described themselves as "not looking for other work" (due to the COVID-19) situation, as B.C. Minister of Finance rightly Carole James pointed out
  3. It does not include people who have had their hours reduced to zero but were not notionally "laid off"
  4. It does not include people who have had their income reduced
  5. It does not include "gig economy" workers, self-employed, or other independent contractors who did not describe themselves as being unemployed
  6. It does not include students and recent graduates
Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey is notionally a joke. It is notoriously unreliable, not that the private ADP payroll surveys are any better (they're often worse). It has, since inception, frequently under-reported the actual rates of unemployment. Moreover, note, too, that March's numbers were revised upward by 150,000-200,000 unemployed persons in this report, across all categories of worker.

When you take into account the fact that the labour force participation rate is ~60% (i.e., those aged 18 or older and notionally capable of working), fully 53% of Canadians had become unemployed, were already unemployed, or were otherwise not working or not looking for work. Factor in the further revisions to the April data next month and those other classes of worker not included I identified above, and it's probably closer to 60-75% of Canadians.

The best reliable data, in my view, would be the number of new EI applications, number of CERB applications, number of new and current applications for income or disability assistance from provincial governments, and number of OAS and GIS pension recipients.

Cheers,
Doug
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Oct 11, 2007
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Economists are never right!
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Jul 4, 2004
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BrokeMillennial wrote: And on the US side, 20.5million job losses....yet the stock markets are up.

Go go cash printing machine!
This is what I'm having trouble with also. The news is still bad, there is no vaccine, according to https://corona.help there are 4,015,416 confirmed cases and yet the markets are up? Mostly likely due to the government's stimuli however, governments are going to be running record and perhaps unsustainable debts paying out all this stimuli and yet the markets are still climbing...sounds like a ponzi scheme building to me. Dmehus has raised some excellent points to note.
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Oct 26, 2003
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Frankie3s wrote: This is what I'm having trouble with also. The news is still bad, there is no vaccine, according to https://corona.help there are 4,015,416 confirmed cases and yet the markets are up? Mostly likely due to the government's stimuli however, governments are going to be running record and perhaps unsustainable debts paying out all this stimuli and yet the markets are still climbing...sounds like a ponzi scheme building to me. Dmehus has raised some excellent points to note.
Apparently Trudeau still found $800 million to gave away to foreign interests.
WTB amazon gc @90%
Deal Addict
May 15, 2013
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I don't think unemployment rate (anywhere, not only in Canada) is relevant if the world is in lockdown.

When everything start to open again, then we are going to know the real unemployment rate.
Jr. Member
Jan 14, 2013
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Kitchener
FrancisBacon wrote: Unemployment has never been a forward looking indicator. It reflects what has already happened.

The stock market attempts to forecast the future.
+1
If inflation is predicted, equities may hold value better than cash. If the index is up 10% and inflation is up 10% though, are you ahead in real terms? Those dividend amounts may be inflated too.
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Apr 5, 2013
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keenland
FiftyYardFistFight wrote: +1
If inflation is predicted, equities may hold value better than cash. If the index is up 10% and inflation is up 10% though, are you ahead in real terms? Those dividend amounts may be inflated too.
inflation = buy gold and hold
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Jan 14, 2013
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Kitchener
cardguy wrote: inflation = buy gold and hold
Yes. I was more trying to rationalize why the stock market was performing as it has.
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Apr 5, 2013
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keenland
FiftyYardFistFight wrote: Yes. I was more trying to rationalize why the stock market was performing as it has.
paper money...and watch for another erasure of paper wealth later this year at the usual time as all the free money runs out, real unemployment numbers and the real economy (or lack of it) becomes evident..its a sit back , wait and save economic environment right now.

..looking at the last three recessions I have lived through...the life span of these are 18-36 months depending on when we hit rock bottom..but one thing I have learned is that cash is truly king at the end of the rainbow as credit becomes very difficult because of the environment, and the shooters that thought the bank are behind them today will find out that they arent so giving in the future economic mess....deals I could qualify for before and economic mess, were refused by banks (with big DP's)...but others (younger gen) that have never seen this, dont think there are any problems currently
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Jul 10, 2014
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BrokeMillennial wrote: And on the US side, 20.5million job losses....yet the stock markets are up.

Go go cash printing machine!
I mean nearly all stocks are still down from their ATHs. The run-up to Covid was incredible for markets but only a few stocks have fully recovered to those levels (Amazon, Shopify, etc.).

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