C19 | Reopening Poll
It all comes down to time. How much time will it take to get back to conditions conducive for commerce to function normally. And how much time for total recovery is baked into the market. Total recovery via vaccine, herd immunity or something else.
I personally believe current market levels are a contrast of QE-whatever-it-takes + back-to-Dec19-normal by Sept1
Your opinion may differ, but the poll results can be matched against whatever you believe the market tolerance is at this level
What's normal?
- schools & daycares are rolling
- kids activities are rolling
- major sports is back with fans
- hotels, airlines & restaurants @ 80% of Dec19 levels
- boarders between Can & US are open
- malls are open, retail rolling
- fitness clubs are open
- main street retail rolling
- beauty services (ie. saloons) open
- car dealerships and sales rolling
- supply chain is in order, shelves are stocks, no more 1hr lines to get into Costco
- realtors rolling
That should be enough of a sampling for now. I've allowed some variance off normal for hotels, airlines, restaurants as the market seems to accept that might lag. I've not even included cruise ships. Having said that, all guidance that the market seems to be rolling on suggests a near "back to new-normal" that will allow full recovery by end of Q4.
What says you?
I personally believe current market levels are a contrast of QE-whatever-it-takes + back-to-Dec19-normal by Sept1
Your opinion may differ, but the poll results can be matched against whatever you believe the market tolerance is at this level
What's normal?
- schools & daycares are rolling
- kids activities are rolling
- major sports is back with fans
- hotels, airlines & restaurants @ 80% of Dec19 levels
- boarders between Can & US are open
- malls are open, retail rolling
- fitness clubs are open
- main street retail rolling
- beauty services (ie. saloons) open
- car dealerships and sales rolling
- supply chain is in order, shelves are stocks, no more 1hr lines to get into Costco
- realtors rolling
That should be enough of a sampling for now. I've allowed some variance off normal for hotels, airlines, restaurants as the market seems to accept that might lag. I've not even included cruise ships. Having said that, all guidance that the market seems to be rolling on suggests a near "back to new-normal" that will allow full recovery by end of Q4.
What says you?
