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C19 | Reopening Poll

  • Last Updated:
  • Apr 16th, 2020 9:33 am
Tags:

Poll: When will NA economic centres get to "a normal" resembling conditions of Dec2019?

  • Total votes: 43. You have voted on this poll.
May 2020
 
0
0%
June 2020
 
6
14%
July 2020
 
1
2%
Aug 2020
 
4
9%
Sept 2020
 
5
12%
Oct 2020
 
2
5%
Nov 2020
 
3
7%
Dec 2020
 
0
0%
Jan 2021 or Beyond
 
22
51%
[OP]
Sr. Member
Mar 13, 2017
996 posts
1179 upvotes

C19 | Reopening Poll

It all comes down to time. How much time will it take to get back to conditions conducive for commerce to function normally. And how much time for total recovery is baked into the market. Total recovery via vaccine, herd immunity or something else.

I personally believe current market levels are a contrast of QE-whatever-it-takes + back-to-Dec19-normal by Sept1

Your opinion may differ, but the poll results can be matched against whatever you believe the market tolerance is at this level

What's normal?
- schools & daycares are rolling
- kids activities are rolling
- major sports is back with fans
- hotels, airlines & restaurants @ 80% of Dec19 levels
- boarders between Can & US are open
- malls are open, retail rolling
- fitness clubs are open
- main street retail rolling
- beauty services (ie. saloons) open
- car dealerships and sales rolling
- supply chain is in order, shelves are stocks, no more 1hr lines to get into Costco
- realtors rolling

That should be enough of a sampling for now. I've allowed some variance off normal for hotels, airlines, restaurants as the market seems to accept that might lag. I've not even included cruise ships. Having said that, all guidance that the market seems to be rolling on suggests a near "back to new-normal" that will allow full recovery by end of Q4.

What says you?
3 replies
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Sep 8, 2007
9004 posts
10280 upvotes
Way Out of GTA
That’s a pretty extensive list....so Jan 2021 or beyond doesn’t seem that unreasonable right now. All of those items will probably see graduated stop/start/stop/start staging of some sort. Can’t see a light switch “on” happening.

Markets currently trying to come to terms with that and do we value stocks for what is happening now in April or May or for Jan 2021?

I don’t think the market is suggesting a back to new normal by Q4 at all. Unless you are looking at US tech.
Deal Expert
Aug 26, 2001
17809 posts
1374 upvotes
Richmond Hill, ON
^ agree with Cart. To me, "full normal" implies a fully-deployed vaccine (I don't think herd immunity will happen without a vaccine).

So this poll question comes down to "when will a vaccine be fully deployed" - which sounds like Jan 2021+ to me.

That said, we don't need "full normal" (80%+ of Dec 2019 volumes) to achieve an improvement from current state.

A province like PEI (just guessing) could go back to 50% of normal volumes over the summer - but they'd need to maintain the travel block. Which may not be realistic. So, dunno.
Article about PEI's success

Much bigger challenges exist for ON and QC, imo.

---

EDIT: It's interesting that 6 people voted for June 2020 as returning to "80% of December 2019 economic activity". I'm glad those people aren't my financial advisors ;)

How exactly do we get back to "80% of Dec. 2019 economic activity" without a travel & tourism sector? Air Canada has already confirmed NO significant international flights schedule (apart from their current bare-bones schedule) until WELL after June 2020 ... and WestJet has started commencing formal Pilot Layoffs today. Layoffs are expensive, so they wouldn't do that TODAY if they thought they'd be flying in June, lol.
Last edited by konfusion666 on Apr 16th, 2020 12:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Addict
Jan 6, 2015
1025 posts
306 upvotes
Vote September, since school can only open start at September...............Face With Tears Of Joy
most can start at June, except school and airline.

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