Real Estate

Calgary - First time buyer - buy now or wait 6-12 months??

  • Last Updated:
  • Jul 24th, 2020 12:52 pm
[OP]
Newbie
Feb 1, 2019
5 posts

Calgary - First time buyer - buy now or wait 6-12 months??

I'm on a month-to-month in a shitty apartment right now.

I am looking at 400-450k single detached houses in deep suburbs in Calgary right now.

I am not worried about employment as I have a stable job and could easily find a new 100% remote job if needed (software developer).

I am assuming the market will go down at least slightly, and am adjusting offers based on that.

Any speculation as to the worst case, how much and how soon before prices could really go down?
4 replies
Newbie
User avatar
Oct 22, 2019
6 posts
5 upvotes
lethbridge, ab
In your price range, $400-500K, the prices of homes aren't likely to drop much at all in the next 6-12 months. Higher priced homes above $750+ are seeing the biggest drop. Have you considered purchasing a home yourself (and not with a Realtor)? I've done this a couple of times now, and immediately save the seller from having to dish out a buy-side commission. At your price point, the seller would be paying a buy-side commission of around $8750. So you could save at most that much, and probably somewhere in the middle if you do it yourself. Lots of tools out there to refer to if you need guidance on that. Bōde Canada being an up and coming platform to help buyers and sellers. Free sold data and market data tools as well. But there are lots of other FSBO resources out there.

https://www.bodecanada.com/market-data (put your particular community filter in, and you'll see the metrics for that area, along with trend graphs). CREB also has some data but no Sold Data - and this is free! Love it. lol
Last edited by vegasraiders on Jul 24th, 2020 10:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Addict
Jun 7, 2017
1043 posts
832 upvotes
BC
Calgary real estate is in terrible shape. You cannot possibly predict where it will go from here. If I was to buy there, I would try to find something which somebody poured a ton of money into and is now taking a huge loss on. There is no way in heck I would build there or buy a new home.

Calgary has terrible unemployment, terrible real estate prices, terrible economic future.
Newbie
User avatar
Oct 22, 2019
6 posts
5 upvotes
lethbridge, ab
I agree with you to some extent on the current state of things in Calgary, but communities outside of Calgary like Cochrane, Okotoks, and Airdrie haven't been hit as hard - mostly because the market prices aren't inherently inflated like they are in Calgary, thus the average price is much lower. Suburban communities follow a similar suit, but not as much. I do think that despite how things have been lately, the doom and gloom attitude is overstated. I tend to be an optimist by nature, but the data supports this as well.

But answering his question in the context of his price point ($400-450K), the prices aren't going to drop much more than they already have, and if they do, it won't be much. If he was looking at a $1.6M home, I'd have a different answer.

For example, pick Calgary and the Tuscany neighborhood

- Average home sold price (past 12 months): $476K
- Average home sold price (in 2016): $508K

A difference of -6.3% (not adjusted for inflation).

I pulled this directly from the Bode Canada website (www.bodecanada.com/market-data)
Newbie
Jul 23, 2020
4 posts
3 upvotes
I also think people want more space to put their stuff and further distance from their neighbors given Covid... based on my research Edmonton surrounding communities are outperforming Edmonton downtown for the same reasons.

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