Calgary Real Estate Market - 2021 and beyond

There are several flips around where I live that have been on the market for a month now. I’m Feb/March the flips were selling within a few days.

In a way it’s good, Calgary is still affordable. But it’s also not good as this rise in interest rates has stopped any chance of Calgary catching up with other areas of the country, making it hard if you want to move elsewhere.

Andy34 wrote: ↑There are several flips around where I live that have been on the market for a month now. I’m Feb/March the flips were selling within a few days.

In a way it’s good, Calgary is still affordable. But it’s also not good as this rise in interest rates has stopped any chance of Calgary catching up with other areas of the country, making it hard if you want to move elsewhere.

Apartments and townhomes r moving fast now for some reasons.

Andy34 wrote: ↑ In a way it’s good, Calgary is still affordable. But it’s also not good as this rise in interest rates has stopped any chance of Calgary catching up with other areas of the country, making it hard if you want to move elsewhere.

Calgary can still catch up to other areas in Canada even if prices remain flat, as long as other cities drop in price. I think that's what might happen. Over the next 3 years for instance Calgary might be flat, or go up 2-3% a year, while places like Toronto and Vancouver could drop 20% or more. Looking at HPI stats it is clear that Calgary decoupled from Toronto and Vancouver and Ottawa prices around 2016-17. Water always finds its own level and I think Calgary is a good investment over the next few years relative to pretty much anywhere else in Canada outside of Alberta.

masarwar wrote: ↑ Lots of movements in the market. A realtor friend who was sitting on 10 listings with no activity in April has suddenly sold all of them in may. Showings are picking up as well.

Not surprised to hear things picking back up. It's possible to still get a 5 year fixed under 4%. I think some people think 5 year fixed rates are going way higher so maybe they are rushing to buy. Also a lot of people still have locked in rates maybe closer to 3%. This will continue as long as rates are going up so rapidly. Alberta looks in great shape financially all of a sudden. Funny how that changes so quick.

adamtheman wrote: ↑ Calgary can still catch up to other areas in Canada even if prices remain flat, as long as other cities drop in price. I think that's what might happen. Over the next 3 years for instance Calgary might be flat, or go up 2-3% a year, while places like Toronto and Vancouver could drop 20% or more. Looking at HPI stats it is clear that Calgary decoupled from Toronto and Vancouver and Ottawa prices around 2016-17. Water always finds its own level and I think Calgary is a good investment over the next few years relative to pretty much anywhere else in Canada outside of Alberta.

3-4% annual appreciation. The number that attracts long term “real” real estate investors.

William W wrote: ↑ That's exactly it. The analogy I would use is how the oil and energy sector performed against QQQ or SPY in the last month. Even though the energy sector in general was flat but it is certainly better than minus 20% as compared to the rest of the market.

I also expect RE in Edmonton and Calgary to behave similarly at least for the next couple of years.

Yep exactly. I think what will be very interesting to watch is the House Price Index (www.housepriceindex.ca). It is very telling. The stats show that from June 2005 (when the indexes were all balanced at 100.00) until Dec 2016, Toronto and the Composite 11 grew at literally the exact same rate as Calgary and Vancouver. In December 2015, this is what it looked like:

181.10 = Calgary
180.21 = Edmonton
180.82 = Toronto
178.79 = Composite 11

Flash forward to March 2022 and this is what it looks like:

189.91 = Calgary
186.02 = Edmonton
352.68 = Toronto
302.75 = Composite 11

Wow. Quite the difference. So basically, between Dec 2015 and Mar 2022, Calgary and Edmonton saw hardly any growth in prices, but Toronto nearly doubled. Calgary and Edmonton also severely lagged the Composite 11. So why? What could have possibly happened around Dec 2015? Well, around this time oil prices hit rock bottom, dropping to around $40 a barrel. It happened right before a real estate boom would take over the rest of Canada, but Calgary and Edmonton were left behind.

I think this has the possibility to reverse, at least somewhat, and eventually one day I could even see Calgary and Edmonton being equal again to Toronto and the composite 11. What these numbers tell me is that if I owned real estate in Toronto, I would be selling it (if I could) and buying in Calgary or Edmonton. I will revisit this post in a few months and see if the numbers start going in the direction I think they will (e.g. Calgary and Edmonton go up, and Toronto/Composite 11 go down)

are prices coming down or stable? https://www.creb.com/Housing_Statistics ... ary/?tab=2

Mainly I see from April's 13 day on market, time has increased to 21 days in May and 10k drop, 670k to 660k

For detached properties time to stay in market has increased substantially. In Feb I was trying, offered/visited quite a few properties, any good property had max 72 hour window for viewing and making an offer. But now 10 days is normal.
I can still see any nice Townhome or apartment in range of 250K- 300K is still moving fast. Although there too buyers are being cautious and not ready to be forced into a deal.

Heard about a deal falling flat today as soon as a similar property hit the market at a realistic price. First one was pending sell but came back to market on Friday, just a day after second one listed at a price 115K less.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2425 ... -royal-oak

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2443 ... -royal-oak

sunnyb7 wrote: ↑For detached properties time to stay in market has increased substantially. In Feb I was trying, offered/visited quite a few properties, any good property had max 72 hour window for viewing and making an offer. But now 10 days is normal.
I can still see any nice Townhome or apartment in range of 250K- 300K is still moving fast. Although there too buyers are being cautious and not ready to be forced into a deal.

Heard about a deal falling flat today as soon as a similar property hit the market at a realistic price. First one was pending sell but came back to market on Friday, just a day after second one listed at a price 115K less.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2425 ... -royal-oak

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2443 ... -royal-oak

I don't know how the market is like right now, but these 2 r not comparable as far as floor plan goes. The more expensive one offers more: good open floor plan, end unit, nice front door layout, all wood floors etc. So I guess it is reasonable why it is more much. But I guess if someone can only afford mid 300's, he would choose the cheaper one. I personally like the more expensive one, but it is a bit too much more for a townhome with condo fee.
At this point, Calgary hasn't dropped on sales and prices like Toronto and Vancouver.

https://www.creb.com/Housing_Statistics ... ary/?tab=2

Semi detached down somewhat. Detached down 10k.

Days on market is increasing, i remember march april being 12 days vs 22 now.

ZenaZ927 wrote: ↑ I don't know how the market is like right now, but these 2 r not comparable as far as floor plan goes. The more expensive one offers more: good open floor plan, end unit, nice front door layout, all wood floors etc. So I guess it is reasonable why it is more much. But I guess if someone can only afford mid 300's, he would choose the cheaper one. I personally like the more expensive one, but it is a bit too much more for a townhome with condo fee.
At this point, Calgary hasn't dropped on sales and prices like Toronto and Vancouver.

Believe me the floor plan is pathetic in the first one too. Living and dining are at different level. The cheaper one has those ugly staircases out front, but once you are in, living dining will be at same floor. Yeah the back yard is better and it gives access to walk out onto the street but size wise it's small. And the cheaper one has a finished basement. I think both of them should be valued around same price may be a bit + or - .

sunnyb7 wrote: ↑ Believe me the floor plan is pathetic in the first one too. Living and dining are at different level. The cheaper one has those ugly staircases out front, but once you are in, living dining will be at same floor. Yeah the back yard is better and it gives access to walk out onto the street but size wise it's small. And the cheaper one has a finished basement. I think both of them should be valued around same price may be a bit + or - .

I like the separation of living room and dining room. That is why I like it better.
Regardless for a townhome with that much condo fee, I don't want it.
I would pay a bit more for a semi detached home or just go with single house.

MikeTO2 wrote: ↑https://globalnews.ca/news/8852281/calg ... ome-sales/

That is way too far out. Think about Alberta winter.

adamtheman wrote: ↑ Calgary can still catch up to other areas in Canada even if prices remain flat, as long as other cities drop in price. I think that's what might happen.
Over the next 3 years for instance Calgary might be flat, or go up 2-3% a year, while places like Toronto and Vancouver could drop 20% or more
. Looking at HPI stats it is clear that Calgary decoupled from Toronto and Vancouver and Ottawa prices around 2016-17. Water always finds its own level and I think Calgary is a good investment over the next few years relative to pretty much anywhere else in Canada outside of Alberta.

Is that a wish or just your prediction? If Vancouver and Toronto prices drop 20% expect Calgary to drop over 30%. The only reason Calgary is up a bit is that Van and T are on fire, they have pretty much doubled in price in 7 years.