Personal Finance

Canada 2020 Inflation?

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  • May 15th, 2020 11:08 am
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Jr. Member
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Oct 15, 2006
150 posts
20 upvotes
Alberta

Canada 2020 Inflation?

How we make sure that these dollars will be well used? We remember this https://nlpc.org/2011/02/14/gms-uaw-bon ... t-outrage/
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.4933739

What is your expectation for Canada 2020 inflation? What about our Canadian dollar? It is now at 1.40. How low it will go? What about those who worked hard to earn and save money?
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12 replies
Member
Aug 18, 2019
258 posts
183 upvotes
Canada's economic engine depends on real estate and resource extraction sectors (oil). When oil tanks and Alberta's economy tanks, there'll be less money in government coffers to pay for programs and hence govt needs to borrow more and lower our loonie so our oil industrys expenses can compete with other countries. I read somewhere few years ago that USD 70/barrel is our break even point to produce our Alberta's oil. We're competing against cheap to produce US shale oil, and cheaper Saudis+Russians oil. Everybody - except our tree hugger pretty black face PM Trudeau - wants to sell oil even the US is liking high oil prices and trying to become a de facto member of OPEC+. Yes climate change and global warming are bad but if we're still consuming oil everywhere and in everything we do and right now we're importing lots of it instead of consuming domestically produced oil from Alberta/Saskatchewan and exporting the excess. Then what's the point for fighting climate change and blocking oil pipelines if all we're doing is sending our Canadian wealth abroad to satisfy our oil demand.

So i suspect our loonie is going to CAD1.5-1.6 per USD in the next yr or so.

IF real estate sector tanks too seeing we're the G7 nation with the highest debt to GDP ratio, then i have a feeling it'll go even lower to 1.8-1.9+. Maybe we can sell our Canadian passports in droves by then? See-no-evil Monkey

https://www.vancourier.com/richmond-hos ... 1.24058984
~ 👍teslanaire2bitcoinaireButStillCheapLurking@RFDForDeals✌️~
Deal Addict
Apr 10, 2011
2211 posts
1788 upvotes
GVRD
On a US news site, there were 2 news stories on the same page:

"Higher than expected inflation"
(caused mainly by meat, eggs, dairy, etc.)

"Lower inflation.."
(rents down, fuel, mfg goods)

In my opinion, Cdn Govt inflation numbers are useless. They intentionally artificially make the number low by canceling out so many things.

Why? Govt union pay and pensions are tied to annual inflation reports so the govt doesn't want their payouts to rapidly increase.

For example, everyone once used beef roasts in their food calculations and now they calculate beef hamburger prices.

Home accommodations (rent, mortgages) have only been going up 2% each year? Where?

The low, and lowering Canadian dollar will push inflation on all US, Mexico and China goods. All those items are typically pegged to USD.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
8071 posts
4052 upvotes
RxMills wrote: On a US news site, there were 2 news stories on the same page:

"Higher than expected inflation"
(caused mainly by meat, eggs, dairy, etc.)

"Lower inflation.."
(rents down, fuel, mfg goods)

In my opinion, Cdn Govt inflation numbers are useless. They intentionally artificially make the number low by canceling out so many things.

Why? Govt union pay and pensions are tied to annual inflation reports so the govt doesn't want their payouts to rapidly increase.

For example, everyone once used beef roasts in their food calculations and now they calculate beef hamburger prices.

Home accommodations (rent, mortgages) have only been going up 2% each year? Where?

The low, and lowering Canadian dollar will push inflation on all US, Mexico and China goods. All those items are typically pegged to USD.
The most meaningless data point cited. At a minimum, the people citing this data point should provide the raw data for their calculation so we can see for ourselves how the number was calculated, what was included/excluded from the basket of goods, and what prices/costs were used. If inflation included the real cost of housing, the number would be so high that they might actually need to adjust interest rates so as to tamp down the true effects of inflation. While governments think they can control everything, they cannot. While they try to make everything look good for their own causes, there are some places that the ugly fallout always surfaces. That is just a fact of life.
Deal Addict
May 16, 2017
1555 posts
1959 upvotes
RxMills wrote: On a US news site, there were 2 news stories on the same page:

"Higher than expected inflation"
(caused mainly by meat, eggs, dairy, etc.)

"Lower inflation.."
(rents down, fuel, mfg goods)

In my opinion, Cdn Govt inflation numbers are useless. They intentionally artificially make the number low by canceling out so many things.

Why? Govt union pay and pensions are tied to annual inflation reports so the govt doesn't want their payouts to rapidly increase.

For example, everyone once used beef roasts in their food calculations and now they calculate beef hamburger prices.

Home accommodations (rent, mortgages) have only been going up 2% each year? Where?

The low, and lowering Canadian dollar will push inflation on all US, Mexico and China goods. All those items are typically pegged to USD.
You example only proves you don't understand the statistical analysis. The "food" basket contains well over 100 items, including 4 different categories of restaurant/cafe food costs. Of course the basket changes over time as consumer habits change - they didn't used to have restaurants either and they aren't comparing ground beef to roast beef - they include 6 types of beef (steaks, roasts, and ground).
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
8071 posts
4052 upvotes
robsaw wrote: You example only proves you don't understand the statistical analysis. The "food" basket contains well over 100 items, including 4 different categories of restaurant/cafe food costs. Of course the basket changes over time as consumer habits change - they didn't used to have restaurants either and they aren't comparing ground beef to roast beef - they include 6 types of beef (steaks, roasts, and ground).
I am curious if the raw data and calculations are provided somewhere for Canadians to see. This would be interesting to see how it is calculated.
Deal Addict
Jan 29, 2017
2612 posts
1741 upvotes
choclover wrote: I am curious if the raw data and calculations are provided somewhere for Canadians to see. This would be interesting to see how it is calculated.
General CPI info: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/subjects- ... ce_indexes
CPI Tables: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-q ... im-eng.htm

You can get statistical information but the raw data is considered sensitive and not available to public.
Deal Addict
Dec 20, 2018
4670 posts
3737 upvotes
flat. Canada is spending a lot less than other countries for Covid19 relief and borrowing a lot less both in absolute and relative to GDP so we aren't flooding the country with MS like the US or europe or Japan and etc

as for the dollar, probably around 1.4 vs US and gain against other currencies. the US is not going to allow their currency to get stronger in value much and will keep the FED bazooka firing to flood the US with money supply and get into negative interest rates well before canada
Deal Addict
Dec 20, 2018
4670 posts
3737 upvotes
liemhoho wrote: Canada's economic engine depends on real estate and resource extraction sectors (oil). When oil tanks and Alberta's economy tanks, there'll be less money in government coffers to pay for programs and hence govt needs to borrow more and lower our loonie so our oil industrys expenses can compete with other countries. I read somewhere few years ago that USD 70/barrel is our break even point to produce our Alberta's oil. We're competing against cheap to produce US shale oil, and cheaper Saudis+Russians oil. Everybody - except our tree hugger pretty black face PM Trudeau - wants to sell oil even the US is liking high oil prices and trying to become a de facto member of OPEC+. Yes climate change and global warming are bad but if we're still consuming oil everywhere and in everything we do and right now we're importing lots of it instead of consuming domestically produced oil from Alberta/Saskatchewan and exporting the excess. Then what's the point for fighting climate change and blocking oil pipelines if all we're doing is sending our Canadian wealth abroad to satisfy our oil demand.

So i suspect our loonie is going to CAD1.5-1.6 per USD in the next yr or so.

IF real estate sector tanks too seeing we're the G7 nation with the highest debt to GDP ratio, then i have a feeling it'll go even lower to 1.8-1.9+. Maybe we can sell our Canadian passports in droves by then? See-no-evil Monkey

https://www.vancourier.com/richmond-hos ... 1.24058984
lol..you think the US will let its dollar appreciate much? they're already signaling negative interest rates and increasing their money supply even more, they're never going to let their currency strengthen much
Deal Addict
Dec 20, 2018
4670 posts
3737 upvotes
choclover wrote: I wonder why they would consider it "sensitive".
because they paid for the data from another company or organization and can't publish it. very common in the business world especially when it comes to data derivative products. E.g. for construction material prices one could buy it from Altus data solutions and statscan publishes their data product which is considered a derivative product that licensing from Altus permits but they're not allowed to publish the actual raw data they got from Altus

I mean, it's very reasonable , as otherwise, who else will purchase the data if another company/organization republishes it?
Sr. Member
Aug 3, 2017
681 posts
499 upvotes
The answer to this question is that nobody knows yet. There is volatility locally, nationally and internationally in most all sectors. Things will need to normalize before any predictions could be made and In not even sure what monthly or quarterly real numbers would even mean at this time.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
8071 posts
4052 upvotes
StatsGuy wrote: because they paid for the data from another company or organization and can't publish it. very common in the business world especially when it comes to data derivative products. E.g. for construction material prices one could buy it from Altus data solutions and statscan publishes their data product which is considered a derivative product that licensing from Altus permits but they're not allowed to publish the actual raw data they got from Altus

I mean, it's very reasonable , as otherwise, who else will purchase the data if another company/organization republishes it?
I think I get it. It's like an intellectual property issue.

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