Personal Finance

Canada - Recession 2020/2021

  • Last Updated:
  • May 10th, 2020 11:34 pm

Poll: Will there be a Recession in Canada in 2020 or 2021?

  • Total votes: 146. You have voted on this poll.
Yes
 
83
57%
No
 
29
20%
Maybe
 
34
23%
[OP]
Sr. Member
User avatar
Feb 12, 2006
694 posts
202 upvotes

Canada - Recession 2020/2021

There has been many articles in the last few months speaking to the rising debt levels and insolvencies in Canada which are pointing to an incoming recession.

What are you thoughts around this and share your experience?

Personally speaking, I am seeing many Canadian companies closing up shop and leaving Canada or changing operations (i.e. being bought out by another company & laying off employees); this obviously means less jobs in Canada. I am also seeing many of my social circle friends tightening spending and worrying about the economy.

Insolvencies:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/rising-inso ... -1.1349506

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/personal- ... -1.4715915

Recession:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... re-in-one/

Debt Levels:

https://business.financialpost.com/news ... ments-area

https://www.lowestrates.ca/news/canadia ... ssion-2020
28 replies
Newbie
Jun 16, 2016
33 posts
17 upvotes
Personally think this Corona virus might trigger the recession. Heard it won’t stop until Apr/May when weather is warmer.
Deal Addict
Nov 8, 2017
1356 posts
726 upvotes
"They" we're saying this last year...and the year before that
#chickenlittleskyisfalling
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2011
1033 posts
406 upvotes
Montreal
User455957 wrote: "They" we're saying this last year...and the year before that
#chickenlittleskyisfalling
Been hearing it for the last decade if not longer. The economy will slow down eventually, the only thing you can do is make sure you are not over-extended and have a sound financial plan. Not much else to do while you enjoyed (hopefully) the ride up.
Sr. Member
Jun 19, 2009
910 posts
147 upvotes
Toronto
franklin777 wrote: Personally think this Corona virus might trigger the recession. Heard it won’t stop until Apr/May when weather is warmer.
I recall seeing that theory that weather would stop it, but it was also rebutted with Singapore being an example of a country that has what many would consider a summer climate, but the Corona virus/COVID 19 is spreading there.
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Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
6666 posts
2959 upvotes
No recession as long as the government can keep real estate propped up. The minute that starts to fall, we may have some problems.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2006
6717 posts
2431 upvotes
Markham
User455957 wrote: "They" we're saying this last year...and the year before that
#chickenlittleskyisfalling
It didn't happen last year doesn't mean it won't happen in the future.
Deal Addict
May 16, 2017
1055 posts
1190 upvotes
choclover wrote: No recession as long as the government can keep real estate propped up. The minute that starts to fall, we may have some problems.
That minute occurred about 1.5 yr ago in Vancouver.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 1, 2007
8344 posts
1343 upvotes
Canada's been in a recession since 2015 that's only being masked by a temporary and completely unsustainable housing bubble primarily focused in two major cities. The same way that the U.S. was in a recession for 10 years, only temporarily masked in the middle (2003-2007) by an unsustainable housing and debt bubble.

According to the Economist, Canadian residential real estate is significantly more overvalued today relative to average incomes than U.S. real estate before the financial crisis or Japanese real estate at their peak around 1990. This is an average, including lower valuation places like the prairies, so that's averaged down from how overvalued it is directly in the GTA or Vancouver. When the bubble bursts, it will be even more painful than it was for the U.S. in 2008.

I'm generally an optimist and I'm still optimistic for the global economy and markets. Canada though not so much. I'd stay out of Canadian bank stocks, consumer stocks that sell mostly domestically, anything real estate related. Commodity prices might be our saviour, but they might also never recover to where we need them to.
Money Smarts Blog wrote: I agree with the previous posters, especially Thalo. {And} Thalo's advice is spot on.
Deal Addict
Jul 14, 2006
2093 posts
2189 upvotes
I've never been so sure of anything in my life. All the data out there about personal finances, corporate finances, retail sales, job numbers, trade gaps, interest rates.....there can only be one correct answer to the poll:









































"Maybe"
Sr. Member
Sep 2, 2009
648 posts
425 upvotes
Ottawa
This is not a comment to anyone specific: I always wonder how many of the "doomsdayers" / "recessionists" know what the definition of a recession is.

Then after that, even if there is a recession: how long will it last?
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 4, 2007
3887 posts
1525 upvotes
Quebec
one thing is sure, keep repeating recession is coming month after month, year after year, it will eventualy happen, this year? next year? nobody really know.
Sr. Member
Jan 18, 2015
763 posts
480 upvotes
Cornwall, ON
cloak wrote: This is not a comment to anyone specific: I always wonder how many of the "doomsdayers" / "recessionists" know what the definition of a recession is.

Then after that, even if there is a recession: how long will it last?
The problem is that recessions now can happen faster, deeper, and harder than ever before...and thus do more damage before they are even "classified" as a recession. You could have a trending downward economy for 2 years straight and not call it a recession if you had some good quarters in there (read "break even plus 1").
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Sr. Member
Sep 2, 2009
648 posts
425 upvotes
Ottawa
CouponBaron wrote: The problem is that recessions now can happen faster, deeper, and harder than ever before...and thus do more damage before they are even "classified" as a recession. You could have a trending downward economy for 2 years straight and not call it a recession if you had some good quarters in there (read "break even plus 1").
Doesn't that actually make my point? And how are they harder and deeper than before? (Stats) percent off high? Length? Sector-specificity? Country?

When you say trending downwards: you mean slower growth or negative growth? (I assume, slowly losing with up then down then up then down)

I'm honestly asking more out of curiosity since people do seem to have different ideas of what a recession is (but mostly seems to be used as fearmongering instead of actual happenings).

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