Personal Finance

The Canadian Dollar and its Ups and Downs

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Sauerkraut wrote: ...as he chums the water looking for potential replies
Not really churns. Just pointing out some basic truths, in response to a particular poster who has made it his raison d'être to attempt to contradict everything I say, rather than sitting down and looking at the cold hard facts.

The "economists" want to give Canada no credit whatsoever for our massive investment in the oil and gas sector. They want to give the Canadian dollar no credit for the fact that commodities have risen out of their 20-25-year secular bear market (circa 1980-~2000) and are now in a secular bull market. They want you to believe that falling Canadian housing implies that the dollar is going to weaken (again, fairly ridiculous). They have too much faith in central bankers and central governments to unilaterally dictate the value of currency (if central bankers can devalue so easily, why has devaluation been such a spectacular failure in the USA?).

Just too many things that one particular poster can't explain about why he believes that the CAD$ belongs under parity for the significant term. Too many contradictions that he tries to explain away with short-term cyclical behaviour. A significant denial of the role that speculators play in short-term currency movements despite being shown official government reports implying huge speculative interest against the CAD$. And of course, when he can't come up with a coherent argument (Big Macs, :lol: , seriously????), all that is left is to resort to the ad hominem.
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Mark77 wrote: Not really churns. Just pointing out some basic truths, in response to a particular poster who has made it his raison d'être to attempt to contradict everything I say, rather than sitting down and looking at the cold hard facts.

The "economists" want to give Canada no credit whatsoever for our massive investment in the oil and gas sector. They want to give the Canadian dollar no credit for the fact that commodities have risen out of their 20-25-year secular bear market (circa 1980-~2000) and are now in a secular bull market. They want you to believe that falling Canadian housing implies that the dollar is going to weaken (again, fairly ridiculous). They have too much faith in central bankers and central governments to unilaterally dictate the value of currency (if central bankers can devalue so easily, why has devaluation been such a spectacular failure in the USA?).

Just too many things that one particular poster can't explain about why he believes that the CAD$ belongs under parity for the significant term. Too many contradictions that he tries to explain away with short-term cyclical behaviour. A significant denial of the role that speculators play in short-term currency movements despite being shown official government reports implying huge speculative interest against the CAD$. And of course, when he can't come up with a coherent argument (Big Macs, :lol: , seriously????), all that is left is to resort to the ad hominem.
How do you type so much if you hurt your hand on a hydrolic line? If I were you, I'd probably sit around not use my hand. I am just saying.... it's hard work not doing anything in life.
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Mark77 wrote: Not really churns.
It's chum, not churn. Chumming describes what fishermen do to bait the water, looking for sharks. Think of Roy Scheider in Jaws.

...and I don't really care what you're trying to point out.
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I was speaking to a BMO Rep about some TFSA that I have. He advised me against investing in US Mutual Funds saying that there will be a correction.

BTW, the results of Quebec's Elections should play a role in strengthening the CAD. We need another one or two good Job Reports and it should reach .94-.95 I think
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radiko wrote: I was speaking to a BMO Rep about some TFSA that I have. He advised me against investing in US Mutual Funds saying that there will be a correction.
and there will also be another 9.0 earthquake in California. So now that we know the "what", we just need your buddy to fill in the "when".
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radiko wrote: I was speaking to a BMO Rep about some TFSA that I have. He advised me against investing in US Mutual Funds saying that there will be a correction.

BTW, the results of Quebec's Elections should play a role in strengthening the CAD. We need another one or two good Job Reports and it should reach .94-.95 I think
Yeah, we saw a bunch of that today. Quite a blast upwards for a single day. More confirmation of the falling housing market, and slowing credit growth are also positive factors that should help as well.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Sauerkraut wrote: and there will also be another 9.0 earthquake in California. So now that we know the "what", we just need your buddy to fill in the "when".
The BMO Rep was right. You better read here:

Top Canadian economist defends country’s housing market as U.S. hedge funds whip up fears of major correction
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Wow speaking of "die" Flaherty has passed away.
Sauerkraut wrote: No thank you, I don't care what the link says.

To have someone state that "there will be a correction" is like saying "you will die". It's a prophecy with no teeth
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licenced wrote: Wow speaking of "die" Flaherty has passed away.
Yea, I just saw that. I know he had health issues, but wow.
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radiko wrote: BTW, the results of Quebec's Elections should play a role in strengthening the CAD. We need another one or two good Job Reports and it should reach .94-.95 I think
hope so. I want to buy more USD.
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dighn wrote: hope so. I want to buy more USD.
Do so before next Wednesday. The Bank of Canada has a briefing and will ruin it. Tomorrow might be the best rate (analyzing from what I read)
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licenced wrote: Wow speaking of "die" Flaherty has passed away.
He died of natural causes or he was put to death? The poor guy had a dream to bring prices down to the US level.
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Sauerkraut wrote: No thank you, I don't care what the link says.

To have someone state that "there will be a correction" is like saying "you will die". It's a prophecy with no teeth
Major investors and many analysts are predicting that. There will be a tech bubble. Prem said that today. This usually scares small investors and then everybody starts to sell.
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Nothing really to see here this week on the CoT report for CAD$ futures (in USD$):

Code: Select all

Traders in Financial Futures - Futures Only Positions as of April 8, 2014                   
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Dealer            :           Asset Manager/       :            Leveraged           :              Other             :     Nonreportable    :
           Intermediary         :           Institutional        :              Funds             :           Reportables          :       Positions      :
    Long  :   Short  : Spreading:    Long  :   Short  : Spreading:    Long  :   Short  : Spreading:    Long  :   Short  : Spreading:    Long  :   Short   :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CANADIAN DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF CAD 100,000)                          
CFTC Code #090741                                                    Open Interest is   120,336
Positions
    25,725      7,844      1,151     14,882      7,256        178     30,064     60,963      5,847     17,024      3,212        149     25,316     33,736
 
Changes from:       April 1, 2014                                    Total Change is:     2,370
      -310      3,799        283        103     -1,273        -28       -149     -1,444        998       -550        326         39      1,984       -330
 
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
      21.4        6.5        1.0       12.4        6.0        0.1       25.0       50.7        4.9       14.1        2.7        0.1       21.0       28.0
 
Number of Traders in Each Category                                    Total Traders:        80
         7          9          6          4          4          .         16         19          9         13          8          5
A bit of a pullback in the shorts, but overall, not much movement at all.
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Mark77 wrote: Nothing really to see here this week on the CoT report for CAD$ futures (in USD$):
IOW, the same as every other time you post this given that you're about the only one here who puts any stock in it.
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Conquistador wrote: IOW, the same as every other time you post this given that you're about the only one here who puts any stock in it.
Yeah as mentioned earlier, simply looking at the CoT reports in isolation tells you nothing. For example, a certain poster started uploading these reports back in December (in an earlier thread on the C$ That he derailed) and then continued posting them at the start of this thread and used them as some sort of indication that the loonie was primed to return to parity. Instead the loonie has gone from over 94 US cents to 90-91 US cents during this 4 month time frame. He would have done just as well posting sun spot records :facepalm: :facepalm:
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Conquistador wrote: IOW, the same as every other time you post this given that you're about the only one here who puts any stock in it.
Actually the CoT report is very useful for testing whether or not the market has been moved unduly through the extremes of speculative activity or not. And it works both ways, both extreme speculation against the CAD$, as well as extreme speculation for the CAD$. If you go back into 2012, there was pretty extreme speculation for the CAD$, which turned out to be unjustified over the medium term.

What you do with such information is entirely up to you, but such extremes in speculation are usually and almost always subject to reversal. Timing, as always, can be problematic.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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gomyone wrote: Yeah as mentioned earlier, simply looking at the CoT reports in isolation tells you nothing. For example, a certain poster started uploading these reports back in December (in an earlier thread on the C$ That he derailed)
I derailled nothing. You simply do not know what you are talking about (as usual!), and worse, you are completely misrepresenting my previous posts which did not give specific time-frames for when the reversal would happen.
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Mark77 wrote: I derailled nothing. You simply do not know what you are talking about (as usual!), and worse, you are completely misrepresenting my previous posts which did not give specific time-frames for when the reversal would happen.
Please stop with your ad hominem attacks and insults - this is why your trolling derailed the last thread.

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