Personal Finance

The Canadian Dollar and its Ups and Downs

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  • Mar 16th, 2015 1:54 pm
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Nov 23, 2010
687 posts
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Montreal
OK, now we hit a new low, 0.78.

Maybe we should just use the US Dollar just like Puerto-Rico.
Do Not put All your Eggs in One Basket!
Overtaxed, Underpaid, Overpriced Proud Canadian!
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Jun 28, 2007
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gomyone wrote: Just my opinion, but I think the Fed is going to continue incrementally tapering - Yellen is eager to remove the excess stimulus from QE and the entire Board of Governors remains concerned about the potential of asset price bubbles in the US stock market. Because the BoC has removed its hiking bias, it is continuing to draw capital flows back to the US - not just from Canada but as we're seeing - from emerging markets as well. Of course, the Fed does not care at all about the rest of the world in so far as its affect on the US - their mandate is strictly US and based on their observations, the US economy is healthy enough to continue requiring tapering.

While I agree with you that the C$ could settle at 85, I also think if this emerging market rout continues, that the C$ could easily get to 80 by mid year because as a commodity based currency, it will just get caught up in that wave.
Above was my post from about a year and a half ago - think my call back then was a pretty good one (to be sure, I invested based on that call and did quite nicely as the loonie made its way below 80 US cents).

As for where the loonie is headed, I still think its got more room to go lower. I don't think 75 US cents by mid year is unreasonable, particularly if the Fed truly hikes this summer. Heck, with oil prices the way they are, I'd even say 70 US cents is a distinct possibility by the end of the year
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Jan 16, 2009
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gomyone wrote: Above was my post from about a year and a half ago - think my call back then was a pretty good one (to be sure, I invested based on that call and did quite nicely as the loonie made its way below 80 US cents).

As for where the loonie is headed, I still think its got more room to go lower. I don't think 75 US cents by mid year is unreasonable, particularly if the Fed truly hikes this summer. Heck, with oil prices the way they are, I'd even say 70 US cents is a distinct possibility by the end of the year
If US Fed continues with its plan (hike the rate to 2% in 2016), we can probably see CDN test mid to low 60 by the end of 2016.
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Dec 13, 2014
375 posts
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Hampstead, QC
the won't hike much if any...and I am talking for the next 2-3 years. Real unemployment #s are about 11%. Lots of part time workers who can't find work and many who dropped out of labour market. Low rates are here to stay.
As for Canadian dollar who knows. We are in a currency war and anything can happen. its all highly manipulated.
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Mar 31, 2008
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Ceryx wrote: If US Fed continues with its plan (hike the rate to 2% in 2016), we can probably see CDN test mid to low 60 by the end of 2016.
How many here lived through that I wonder. Not as a kid, but as an adult. The loss of purchasing power will really make us feel like second class citizens. Vacations? Everyday items? Engagement rings? Cars? Houses? Sorry, it's going to be alot harder to afford. The difference is now, there are actually going to be foreigners outbidding many of those Canadian homes since their currency will be stronger relative to Canada's.
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Jan 28, 2014
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at1212b wrote: How many here lived through that I wonder. Not as a kid, but as an adult. The loss of purchasing power will really make us feel like second class citizens. Vacations? Everyday items? Engagement rings? Cars? Houses? Sorry, it's going to be alot harder to afford. The difference is now, there are actually going to be foreigners outbidding many of those Canadian homes since their currency will be stronger relative to Canada's.
We have - as adults.
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Mar 31, 2008
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Blanche123 wrote: We have - as adults.
I think alot of millenials (or younger) will be in for a shock if the dollar slides into the 60s for a sustained period. That entitlement of consumption we have grown accustomed with a stronger dollar over the last 10 yrs or so will be shaken for many.
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Jan 16, 2009
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at1212b wrote: I think alot of millenials (or younger) will be in for a shock if the dollar slides into the 60s for a sustained period. That entitlement of consumption we have grown accustomed with a stronger dollar over the last 10 yrs or so will be shaken for many.
Stock up enough USD or move to US...

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