The Canadian Dollar and its Ups and Downs

orthognathic wrote: ↑This dollar is causing major issues with businesses that purchase items from the U.S. Costs have increased 10-12% easily. While this may be good for Canadians that pay things in USD, it forces businesses such as ours to raise our prices, effectively costing Canadians more.

I have heard predictions of 1.30CAD/1USD in the next two years. Very scary!

I'm starting to see price increases at Costco. Harper wants to win the Elections by Emptying our Pockets... It ain't gonna fly!

radiko wrote: ↑I'm starting to see price increases at Costco. Harper wants to win the Elections by Emptying our Pockets... It ain't gonna fly!

Yeah ones' experience will always vary by the specific basket of goods bought. The weak US economy has seen the cost of a lot of the consumer items that I'm looking to buy drop by an amount roughly equal to the (likely temporary) devaluation. Car parts, for instance, on Amazon, for instance.

The Loonie just fell 47 cents. It was doing very well since last week.

What's happening?

radiko wrote: ↑The Loonie just fell 47 cents. It was doing very well since last week.
What's happening?

Good question. I haven't seen any 'news'. Oil continues to do well. Extremely minor pullback in gold/silver after a pretty crazy past few weeks. Nothing significant news or policy wise. Maybe the speculative shorts just piling on one last time?

Quite a run...down $0.0068 now.

dgodsell wrote: ↑Quite a run...down $0.0068 now.

FOMC minutes coming out later today. Could generate a move.

Down 0.0097. Biggest move I've seen in a while.

dgodsell wrote: ↑Down 0.0097. Biggest move I've seen in a while.

Yeah I didn't see anything. Sometimes there's been significant jumps. So we're pretty much back to not much of anything. Oh well, CoT report on Friday again.

Mark77 wrote: ↑New Commitment of Traders Report:

Code: Select all

Traders in Financial Futures - Futures Only Positions as of February 11, 2014               
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Dealer            :           Asset Manager/       :            Leveraged           :              Other             :     Nonreportable    :
           Intermediary         :           Institutional        :              Funds             :           Reportables          :       Positions      :
    Long  :   Short  : Spreading:    Long  :   Short  : Spreading:    Long  :   Short  : Spreading:    Long  :   Short  : Spreading:    Long  :   Short   :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CANADIAN DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF CAD 100,000)                          
CFTC Code #090741                                                    Open Interest is   157,495
Positions
    84,402      2,329      1,335     14,430     16,629        690     10,623     85,926      5,355     14,876      4,742        165     25,619     40,324
 
Changes from:       February 4, 2014                                 Total Change is:    -3,130
    -3,922        584        642        -47       -456         -1     -2,221     -1,725        525      1,418      1,072        -49        525     -3,722
 
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
      53.6        1.5        0.8        9.2       10.6        0.4        6.7       54.6        3.4        9.4        3.0        0.1       16.3       25.6
 
Number of Traders in Each Category                                    Total Traders:        93
        13          4          6          4          7          .         17         32         13         11          5          4

Ratio of shorts to longs in the leveraged speculator category continues to increase. But big short covering in the "nonreportables". Despite the CAD$ actually doing fairly well over the past week or two. Other than that, not a lot of change. Could be setting up for a fairly violent break-out.

Well you were right, just on the wrong side, yet again.

Mark77 wrote: ↑Good question. I haven't seen any 'news'. Oil continues to do well. Extremely minor pullback in gold/silver after a pretty crazy past few weeks. Nothing significant news or policy wise. Maybe the speculative shorts just piling on one last time?

Sorry, facts continue to defy made up voodoo predictions.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 07678.html

Firebot wrote: ↑Well you were right, just on the wrong side, yet again.

Nope. Not at all.

Sorry, facts continue to defy made up voodoo predictions.

You're the one making stuff up. Your article really doesn't say much of anything, other than the US situation is perhaps more dire than even predicted. Which eventually will be helpful for the CAD$. But timing is difficult, of course.

Mark77 wrote: ↑ You're the one making stuff up. Your article really doesn't say much of anything, other than the US situation is perhaps more dire than even predicted. Which eventually will be helpful for the CAD$. But timing is difficult, of course.

The Wall Street Journal is making stuff up, but your claim that speculative shorts are the reason why the Canadian dollar has gone down almost a full penny in a day is fact? Ok buddy.

Care to explain this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-1 ... -fund.html

The government is basically hedging against itself.

Lol at voodoo predictions.

So the CAD went up on a surprising GDP. The question is how up they will allow it to go?

Personally I hope the Canadian dollar tanks all the way back down to 2001 levels. As I get paid in US funds seeing a pay decrease year after year really blows. Nothing more frustrating then seeing the 2 currencies at par and it really sucked when the Canadian dollar was at $1.10 vs US Dollar a few years back

Interesting article...

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/ ... its-floor/

colossk wrote: ↑Personally I hope the Canadian dollar tanks all the way back down to 2001 levels. As I get paid in US funds seeing a pay decrease year after year really blows. Nothing more frustrating then seeing the 2 currencies at par and it really sucked when the Canadian dollar was at $1.10 vs US Dollar a few years back

Yea, "personally".

I get paid in USD as well and hope it tanks to 1 USD = CAD $1.50. Those were the days!

CRAZYBUBBA wrote: ↑I get paid in USD as well and hope it tanks to 1 USD = CAD $1.50. Those were the days!

Try the BofA CC with no foreign Transaction fee. You can use it in Canada and it will do the conversion.

Did anyone notice the race between the Canadian and Australian dollars versus the USD? The AUD is picking up faster...

radiko wrote: ↑Did anyone notice the race between the Canadian and Australian dollars versus the USD? The AUD is picking up faster...

Australia is on a slightly different cyclical path than Canada - RBA said today that they are maintaining low rates to help stimulate the economy - that was taken as bullish for growth coming on the heels of Q4 Australian GDP (which showed the economy was picking up some steam thanks to consumers and residential investment - in Canada those sectors have been exhausted significantly). Either way, I 've noticed both the CAD and AUD have found floors around 90 US cents.