Personal Finance

The Canadian Dollar and its Ups and Downs

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radiko wrote: Did anyone notice the race between the Canadian and Australian dollars versus the USD? The AUD is picking up faster...
I am short on AUD 75k 1.0145
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C$ fell quite a bit today - probably took its cue from a speech by Poloz who suggested that growth in Canada was going to remain weak and there is little reason for interest rates to move much higher any time soon. Could also be because of Flaherty resigning - he's been a pretty big defacto pumper of the C$.....
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Poloz is going to screw the Canadian consumer to help his export buddies -- one of the worst guys to run the bank.
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agentbob wrote: Ouch. 0.894
Someone who sold tons of US dollar at 1.08 in a now deleted thread sure is kicking himself right about now. Hillarious how that one individual can continue to be the perfect contra-indicator for so many different asset fields in the past few years.
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Firebot wrote: Someone who sold tons of US dollar at 1.08 in a now deleted thread sure is kicking himself right about now. Hillarious how that one individual can continue to be the perfect contra-indicator for so many different asset fields in the past few years.
Yes, that poster also said three months ago when the loonie was trading closer 95 US cents that the C$ was imminently about to return to parity as all the "speculation" supposedly cited in his silly little trade reports was about to lift. Reality of course, has shown that the loonie is grounded around the 90 US cent range. If anything, sentiment is tilting towards a 85 cent floor.

Of course, the loonie may already be trading well above parity in the mind of that poster - I mean he is also under the delusion that house prices in Canada have been falling over the past year and he actually spends days upon hours on this forum trying to convince people that its happening :facepalm:
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So... if we just invest the opposite of whatever that poster preaches.... we can't lose!
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gomyone wrote: Yes, that poster also said three months ago when the loonie was trading closer 95 US cents that the C$ was imminently about to return to parity as all the "speculation" supposedly cited in his silly little trade reports was about to lift. Reality of course, has shown that the loonie is grounded around the 90 US cent range. If anything, sentiment is tilting towards a 85 cent floor.
Just to clarify, I did not say that the report said that any particular outcome was going to happen. The cited CoT report indicated that there was a significant amount of speculative interest against the CAD$, and that historically, when such interest unwound, that it did with particular violence.

Now if you looked at subsequent reports, the interest has not unwound yet. But with interest rate differentials favouring the CAD$, and the Canadian economy being a robust exporter and far more fundamentally sound than the US economy, its only a matter of time. But just like in the housing threads, I cannot predict when it will happen, and you really shouldn't impugn that I made any short-term trading prediction.

Of course, the loonie may already be trading well above parity in the mind of that poster - I mean he is also under the delusion that house prices in Canada have been falling over the past year and he actually spends days upon hours on this forum trying to convince people that its happening :facepalm:
House prices are falling in Canada (that's not a delusion by any stretch of the imagination) on identical properties, the headline numbers only showing slight increases due to a drastic change in the sales mix and panic to unload higher-end units. Not sure why you would continue with the rest of your trolls or your belligerent and completely uncalled for comments.

BTW, you're now down $150 on your bottom-ticking of the gold market. Should I point that out every time you post? Pretty embarrassing I must say, that you were out there wink, wink, nudge, nudge, starting a thread implying that stagnation, if not greater losses in gold were ahead of us at $1200/ounce.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Lol cad
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Mark77 wrote: Just to clarify, I did not say that the report said that any particular outcome was going to happen. The cited CoT report indicated that there was a significant amount of speculative interest against the CAD$, and that historically, when such interest unwound, that it did with particular violence.

Now if you looked at subsequent reports, the interest has not unwound yet. But with interest rate differentials favouring the CAD$, and the Canadian economy being a robust exporter and far more fundamentally sound than the US economy, its only a matter of time. But just like in the housing threads, I cannot predict when it will happen, and you really shouldn't impugn that I made any short-term trading prediction.




House prices are falling in Canada (that's not a delusion by any stretch of the imagination) on identical properties, the headline numbers only showing slight increases due to a drastic change in the sales mix and panic to unload higher-end units. Not sure why you would continue with the rest of your trolls or your belligerent and completely uncalled for comments.

BTW, you're now down $150 on your bottom-ticking of the gold market. Should I point that out every time you post? Pretty embarrassing I must say, that you were out there wink, wink, nudge, nudge, starting a thread implying that stagnation, if not greater losses in gold were ahead of us at $1200/ounce.
blah, blah, blah,

The loonie is down from the beginning of the year - you said it would be at parity - you were WRONG
House prices are at record levels...again - you said in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 that they would crash by more than 50% by now - hasn't happened - you were wrong
Moral of the story: do the opposite of what Mark77 says and you'll be fine


PS: I'm down nothing when it comes to gold. I sold off all my gold positions in 2010/2011 before it broke $1200 - perhaps a little early but considering I went long on that market in 2005 - I am happy with the +175% return.

Hilarious but after a 30% crash in gold prices last year, you'd think you'd eat some humble pie when it comes to the yellow metal - yet here you are all bulled up on it. Readers be warned - that's the biggest sell sign available for gold :lol:
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sunshinemoonlight13 wrote: rofl. USD.CDN strengthened quite a bit. Sucks to be short the USD.CDN. LoL!!!!
Nah, its a greater selling opportunity. And my USD$ denominated investments are up more than enough to make up for any short term currency losses. Will be selling more USD$ when my dividends come in at the end of the month.
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Mark77 wrote: Nah, its a greater selling opportunity. And my USD$ denominated investments are up more than enough to make up for any short term currency losses. Will be selling more USD$ when my dividends come in at the end of the month.
lol 'q - how the serially wrong doth squirm! :razz:
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gomyone wrote: lol 'q - how the serially wrong doth squirm! :razz:
Speaking of seriously wrong, are you not both wrong on gold, as well as the direction of interest rates? I don't have a sunny afternoon to waste pulling up your past posts, but I think it was fairly clear that you were under the belief that BoC rates would be rising, and you intimated that gold prices were on their way down from the 1200-1250 level.

So not really sure what your point, or grammar problem is. Grasping at straws is what it looks like. You know perfectly well that I did not make a short term prediction on any direction of the CAD$. Indeed, the CoT reports showed that the speculative fervor actually increased against the CAD$.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Mark77 wrote: Speaking of seriously wrong, are you not both wrong on gold, as well as the direction of interest rates? I don't have a sunny afternoon to waste pulling up your past posts, but I think it was fairly clear that you were under the belief that BoC rates would be rising, and you intimated that gold prices were on their way down from the 1200-1250 level.

So not really sure what your point, or grammar problem is. Grasping at straws is what it looks like.
Nah I said the next move for the Bank was up - in other words they weren't going to cut rates like you were saying. Since they haven't cut in the three years you said they would - looks like I'm right and you're very wrong!

RE: gold - I said it would crash before housing - I was right - gold plummeted 30% last year - housing is only falling in your mind. So I reiterate: lol 'q!

PS: to stay on topic on this thread since you derailed the last one - looks like the bearish trend persists for the CAD as the Bank of Canada has effectively removed its tightening bias while the Fed continues to taper.
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gomyone wrote: Nah I said the next move for the Bank was up - in other words they weren't going to cut rates like you were saying. Since they haven't cut in the three years you said they would - looks like I'm right and you're very wrong!
Your claim was that rates were going to rise gradually as the Canadian economy was near capacity pressures. I pointed that out as absurd, given the large amount of unemployment in Canada, particularly amongst capacity-increasing professionals. I also pointed out that interest rates do not generally rise in a deflationary environment which is exactly what we are now in. Now that housing prices are decreasing and economic activity decelerating on that basis.

Am I bad market timer? Absolutely. That's why I don't daytrade.
RE: gold - I said it would crash before housing - I was right - gold plummeted 30% last year - housing is only falling in your mind. So I reiterate: lol 'q!
Are you ill or something? And housing is falling, not in my mind at all. In actual fact. Its pretty obvious to everyone except ill-informed pumpers in glass towers who are not very good with statistical analysis.
PS: to stay on topic on this thread since you derailed the last one
No you derailed the last one. Not me.
- looks like the bearish trend persists for the CAD as the Bank of Canada has effectively removed its tightening bias while the Fed continues to taper.
Deflation is actually quite bullish for the CAD$, and with credit expansion slowing in Canada, the CAD$ is setting up for a very bullish trend. Meanwhile a reduction in stimulus in the US is moving them closer to significant capital market / housing sector losses and capital flight, weakening the USD$. Geopolitical events in the short term have been positive for the USD, but that won't last indefinitely. Is the S&P500 even up YTD anymore? :lol:
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Mark77 wrote:
Are you ill or something?
Why do you keep asking posters if they are ill? I'm not ill but you have fully admitted here on RFD that you suffered from post traumatic stress disorder - see here: ptsd-engineering-school-675936/

Perhaps this mental problem has returned? If so, you might want to seek professional help as others told you in that thread you posted!
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gomyone wrote: Why do you keep asking posters if they are ill? I'm not ill but you have fully admitted here on RFD that you suffered from post traumatic stress disorder - see here: ptsd-engineering-school-675936/
Then why are you not talking normally? You run your mouth off accusing me of thread hijacking, then you go into this. Pretty sad.
Perhaps this mental problem has returned? If so, you might want to seek professional help as others told you in that thread you posted!
Its obvious that you have a problem, if you can't even treat people with basic respect and have to resort to psycho-babble in a lame attempt to protect whatever little credibility you have when it comes to practically anything discussed here.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...

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